Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016
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Author Topic: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016  (Read 18332 times)
bmw1503
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« Reply #100 on: May 19, 2016, 06:06:46 PM »
« edited: May 19, 2016, 06:08:17 PM by bmw1503 »

Excellent map as always, Sibboleth!

How do the Khan and Goldsmith areas of strength compare with typical GE behavior? That is, are there areas where Khan/Goldsmith performed disproportionately well compared with Labour/Conservative parliamentary candidates (besides the aforementioned non-Muslim South Asian areas)?
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Cranberry
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« Reply #101 on: May 20, 2016, 02:51:24 AM »

What's up with those two Labour wards in southeastern Croydon? I thought so far out south was basically already Surrey, which the wards around it seem to affirm looking at those results.

New Addington; big LCC overspill estate.

Alright, that makes sense, thank you.

The map is great by the way!
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Hnv1
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« Reply #102 on: May 20, 2016, 08:34:37 AM »

Great to see North London backing Khan in big numbers. So what was Khan best Ward?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #103 on: May 20, 2016, 08:46:49 AM »

How do the Khan and Goldsmith areas of strength compare with typical GE behavior? That is, are there areas where Khan/Goldsmith performed disproportionately well compared with Labour/Conservative parliamentary candidates (besides the aforementioned non-Muslim South Asian areas)?

Well there's the obvious issue of only two parties having much strength which confuses things in certain places. As well as that Khan underperformed in majority white areas in the outer ring (partly because Labour supporters there are less likely to vote in London elections, partly for other reasons; no one mentioned the latter during the campaign because - unlike the Gujarati esp. thing - this was auto-factored in and no mystery) though actually by less than Livingstone tended to, and overperformed in inner South London, particularly in his own borough and especially in his own constituency.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #104 on: May 20, 2016, 08:51:37 AM »

Great to see North London backing Khan in big numbers. So what was Khan best Ward?

Little Ilford (East Ham in 'Newham') with 77% of the vote. Fun fact about Little Ilford: the largest census-designated ethnic group there (Bengalis) make up less than 20% of the population.

Goldsmith's was (this will shock everyone) Knightsbridge & Belgravia with 76%.
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Blair
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« Reply #105 on: May 20, 2016, 08:53:55 AM »

As minor as it may be didn't Labour do poorly in Harrow in the GE? I remember there were 3/4 seats we were suppose to win in London but didn't (excluding Croydon Central, my own stomping ground)
You hail from Croydon and have a pool signature instead of a Palace one (or another London team)...Utd\pool supporters more common in London than the north

Oh not at all- merely giving solidarity to the Hillsborough cause.

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Hnv1
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« Reply #106 on: May 20, 2016, 11:26:54 AM »

Great to see North London backing Khan in big numbers. So what was Khan best Ward?

Little Ilford (East Ham in 'Newham') with 77% of the vote. Fun fact about Little Ilford: the largest census-designated ethnic group there (Bengalis) make up less than 20% of the population.

Goldsmith's was (this will shock everyone) Knightsbridge & Belgravia with 76%.
Where did the Green\Libdem\Ukip (I assume Romford) do best?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #107 on: May 20, 2016, 12:20:07 PM »

Where did the Green\Libdem\Ukip (I assume Romford) do best?

Berry (Green) - Herne Hill (Lambeth) 15.3%, Pidgeon (LibDem) - Surrey Docks (Southwark; yuppie flats) 17.3%, Whittle (UKIP) - Heaton (Havering; one of the Harold Hill wards so what most people would think of as Romford even if not in the parliamentary constituency) 19.5%.

The candidate of the Women's Equality Party polled best in (looooool) Crouch End (5.4%), George Galloway in one of the North Kensington wards (Golborne) 5.7% which was not expected and Prince Zylinski in Greenford Green (5.1%) which absolutely was.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #108 on: May 20, 2016, 12:37:55 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2016, 02:17:27 PM by joevsimp »

Great to see North London backing Khan in big numbers. So what was Khan best Ward?

Little Ilford (East Ham in 'Newham') with 77% of the vote. Fun fact about Little Ilford: the largest census-designated ethnic group there (Bengalis) make up less than 20% of the population.

Goldsmith's was (this will shock everyone) Knightsbridge & Belgravia with 76%.
Where did the Green\Libdem\Ukip (I assume Romford) do best?

I've done a map showing which of the minor parties did best in each ward on the list members vote and where they managed to come second (UKIP also came first in 4 wards in Havering but only managed third in Romford Town itself)

It needs some tidying up though and I may well decide to redo it based on the earlier suggestion of correcting for postal votes. Greenies like myself seem particularly keen on turning out and voting on the day

edit, that's actually interesting about Labour's best ward, in the past it has usually been (the heavily Indian) Southall Broadway
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« Reply #109 on: May 20, 2016, 10:30:00 PM »

Crouch "Ayyy lmao" End
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CrabCake
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« Reply #110 on: May 20, 2016, 10:31:40 PM »

I wonder if the Liberals will ever recover in SW London.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #111 on: May 21, 2016, 06:00:19 PM »

Where did the Green\Libdem\Ukip (I assume Romford) do best?

Berry (Green) - Herne Hill (Lambeth) 15.3%, Pidgeon (LibDem) - Surrey Docks (Southwark; yuppie flats) 17.3%, Whittle (UKIP) - Heaton (Havering; one of the Harold Hill wards so what most people would think of as Romford even if not in the parliamentary constituency) 19.5%.

The candidate of the Women's Equality Party polled best in (looooool) Crouch End (5.4%), George Galloway in one of the North Kensington wards (Golborne) 5.7% which was not expected and Prince Zylinski in Greenford Green (5.1%) which absolutely was.

Mind clarifying that comment on Prince Zylinski?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #112 on: May 21, 2016, 06:24:50 PM »

Mind clarifying that comment on Prince Zylinski?

That part of Ealing isn't far off 15% Polish born.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #113 on: May 31, 2016, 10:41:09 AM »




Errors possible as are minor inconsistencies in rounding (though I hope not much). Pretty is the main thing though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #114 on: June 04, 2016, 01:20:00 PM »



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ObserverIE
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« Reply #115 on: June 04, 2016, 04:10:53 PM »


Let's play Spot The Hipster?
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« Reply #116 on: June 05, 2016, 01:17:09 AM »

The Green vote seems to roughly map to Labour except for the Brent/Ealing/Hounslow area. Is that one of the less bobo areas?
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afleitch
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« Reply #117 on: June 05, 2016, 06:04:15 AM »

The Green vote seems to roughly map to Labour except for the Brent/Ealing/Hounslow area. Is that one of the less bobo areas?

The Green vote if anything folds neatly into parts of the city that once supported the Lib Dems/Brian Paddick.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #118 on: June 05, 2016, 07:39:13 AM »

The Green vote seems to roughly map to Labour except for the Brent/Ealing/Hounslow area. Is that one of the less bobo areas?

Very large Asian populations in outer West London; it's the same as in Enfield and Ilford in the far north, where the Green vote is well below the Labour one.
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vileplume
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« Reply #119 on: June 05, 2016, 08:56:57 PM »

The Green vote seems to roughly map to Labour except for the Brent/Ealing/Hounslow area. Is that one of the less bobo areas?

The Green vote if anything folds neatly into parts of the city that once supported the Lib Dems/Brian Paddick.

The Greens typically do well anywhere where there is a substantial left leaning middle class, a large quantity of students, a lot of young professionals who work in the arts or where 'alternative' culture is commonplace. For example the Greens fairly decent performance in northern Tower Hamlets is almost certainly the results of spill over 'hipster' gentrification from Hackney, contrast this to their significantly poorer performance in and around the Isle of Dogs where there has also been gentrification but this is more driven by wealthy city workers who are pretty heavily inclined to vote Tory.

In contrast the Greens do dreadfully anywhere that has a lot of white working/lower middle class voters (Havering, Dagenham, Feltham in Hounslow etc.), suburban Conservatives (Barnet, Bromley etc.) or very wealthy metropolitan areas that vote heavily Tory (Knightsbridge, Chelsea, Barnes, Wimbledon Village etc.)

As to the Lib Dems I would like to comment on Richmond and Kingston because there has been significant demographic change down there but it often goes unnoticed. As can be seen from the map/recent election results the Lib Dems have held up far better in Kingston and Surbiton than they have in Richmond Park. Richmond was traditionally far better for the Lib Dems than the other to the parliamentary seat was very close even in the Thatcher landslides of the 80s for example. While Richmond has always been a 'nice middle class area' 30-40 years ago it had a large left leaning middle class while Kingston and Surbiton was largely full of suburban Tories (see Margot Leadbetter from the 70s sitcom the Good Life). But now due to rising property prices in Richmond those people are being priced out and replaced with a banker/corporate lawyer solidly Tory voting demographic. Whereas Kingston and Surbiton would fit the bill nowadays for having a left leaning middle class (not the whole borough as for example North Kingston, Coombe and Malden or even Chessington wouldn't fit this description) and the modern day equivalent of Margot Leadbetter would no longer live in Surbiton or even in London and instead would probably reside in a posh town in Surrey.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #120 on: June 06, 2016, 03:32:35 PM »

The Green vote seems to roughly map to Labour except for the Brent/Ealing/Hounslow area. Is that one of the less bobo areas?

Very large Asian populations in outer West London; it's the same as in Enfield and Ilford in the far north, where the Green vote is well below the Labour one.

I'm working on a map of comparative minor party performance, which I'll post once I've redone.  respect actually came third in a handful of wards in Newham and Redbridge

in terms of minor parties beating one of the two major parties and coming second in a given ward, the Greens tend to do it in wards that Labour win by a mile, Ukip do it in wards where they're evenly matched (except for Barking and Dagenham which is Labour landslide territory and formerly fertile ground for the BNP)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #121 on: June 06, 2016, 07:06:53 PM »

More maps!





Others over the next few days.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #122 on: June 07, 2016, 06:28:26 PM »





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