Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016

[joevsimp]

But how many of those 51k Labour full members are also members of affiliated unions, and therefore not signed up as affiliated supporters?

Tbf, its good that they no longer have two votes in contests like this

[joevsimp]

Well turnout from affiliates has often been pretty low and now (yes) party members are no longer allowed to vote as affiliates.

And just LOL Gareth Thomas.

Yeah, not entirely sure what the point of his campaign was, is a Woolmer didn't do better as I really liked what he was saying, but he doesn't seem typical Labour candidate material. I'm surprised Abbot did as well as she did.

[joevsimp]

its up on the london labour website now, Jowell was about 2,000 votes ahead just on members, but Khan was 2,000 ahead on affiliates and 7,000 ahead on registered supporters.

Khan picked up transfers from members throughout though and finished less than 900 votes ahead of Jowell

http://www.labourinlondon.org.uk/just_announced_sadiq_khan_is_the_labour_candidate_for_mayor_of_london_in_2016

[joevsimp]

If you can be bothered to read the report and sift through its dreadfully rendered tables, there's some great breakdowns of the numbers. In a nutshell, Khan is winning with everyone under 50 and in central London. Goldsmith has the senior vote but is only fighting Khan to a draw in outer London.

*crossing fingers this holds out and we get a good night for once*

I was about to say "well duh" until I got to the bold bit, will be interesting to see which assembly constituencies Labour manage to hold and which outer Boroughs Kahn leads in

[joevsimp]

There seems to be some almighty mess up with the electoral register in Barnet.

so labour seem to blaming the fact that Barnet have outsourced everything that's not nailed down, if its very close could be grounds for a challenge to the results, and if its a close win for Labour then you-know-what will be brought into play

sounds like a lot of headaches

[joevsimp]

A week of news coverage of the Labour party being riddled with antisemites ends with thousands of voters in the most Jewish part of the country being turned away from polling stations and a narrow victory for the Labour candidate. I'd expect a challenge to the results of Kahn wins by anything less than 10,000 votes

[joevsimp]

Jews who cannot vote anymore. Livingstone's dream has come true, it seems

because its always a conspiracy and never a cock-up

[joevsimp]

London elects have a count tracker up now. Helpfully they've gone for the Lib-Dem style bar chart with no numbers. With about 30% counted Khan seems to be ahead, but that includes South West data that had him ahead of Zac with Ukip in a strong third,so I guess they're counting Feltham first in that seat.

https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/live-count-progress-2016?contest=23

The assembly counts look fairly even between Labour and conservatives,  With the greens denying to be ahead in the the way strap for third place, womens equality party and various odds and sods well back and not looking like getting over the 5%

[joevsimp]

yeah, i'm working on something too and i've noticed that, Enfield looks particularly bad

[joevsimp]

Great to see North London backing Khan in big numbers. So what was Khan best Ward?

Little Ilford (East Ham in 'Newham') with 77% of the vote. Fun fact about Little Ilford: the largest census-designated ethnic group there (Bengalis) make up less than 20% of the population.

Goldsmith's was (this will shock everyone) Knightsbridge & Belgravia with 76%.

Where did the Green\Libdem\Ukip (I assume Romford) do best?

I've done a map showing which of the minor parties did best in each ward on the list members vote and where they managed to come second (UKIP also came first in 4 wards in Havering but only managed third in Romford Town itself)

It needs some tidying up though and I may well decide to redo it based on the earlier suggestion of correcting for postal votes. Greenies like myself seem particularly keen on turning out and voting on the day

edit, that's actually interesting about Labour's best ward, in the past it has usually been (the heavily Indian) Southall Broadway

[joevsimp]

The Green vote seems to roughly map to Labour except for the Brent/Ealing/Hounslow area. Is that one of the less bobo areas?

Very large Asian populations in outer West London; it's the same as in Enfield and Ilford in the far north, where the Green vote is well below the Labour one.

I'm working on a map of comparative minor party performance, which I'll post once I've redone.  respect actually came third in a handful of wards in Newham and Redbridge

in terms of minor parties beating one of the two major parties and coming second in a given ward, the Greens tend to do it in wards that Labour win by a mile, Ukip do it in wards where they're evenly matched (except for Barking and Dagenham which is Labour landslide territory and formerly fertile ground for the BNP)