Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016

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The thing to note about Khan is that he's not a typical minority machine politician who landed a safe seat in which many members of his community are Party members.

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Well turnout from affiliates has often been pretty low and now (yes) party members are no longer allowed to vote as affiliates.

And just LOL Gareth Thomas.

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Sign on the times on the latter point I think.

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A vague and entirely uninformed prediction that will doubtless look stupid soon enough: Corbyn wins in the first round (i.e. and therefore by a lot overall) or narrowly loses. The result is described as 'sensational' and 'trouble' is predicted for Labour either way.

Heard sources complaining that Tessa won on every round with members except the last one....

Which as a complaint makes literally zero sense. She lost in all sections. I could understand annoyance if she had only lost because of the Registered Supporters (though will note again exactly which part of the Party is responsible for that brilliant idea).

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Goldsmith's vile campaign appears to be backfiring then. Good.

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Well no because then we would be behind.

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Barnet LBC does some kind of sarcastic prize for this.

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Things aren't any worse than expected so far if that's any help.

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Dismore wins Barnet & Camden by 16,000.

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Well, no, because turnout was drastically lower.

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Brent and Harrow:

Khan 43.4, Goldsmith 38.7

This is... concerning.

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This is actually a swing to Goldsmith compared to Johnson last time and is closer than London as a whole (which is not... normal). The concern is that possibly the whole mini Modi business worked, and I dread to think what the future implications of that might be. Though we'll need to look over ward figures (when they're out).

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Those are the figures for the GLA seat. And even there we see that Shah's vote was down by 2.8pts, the largest fall for any of the suburban seats.

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Largest changes at ward level (postal votes not included) from last time...

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Yeah...

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Working on a % lead map atm; as always the more stressed I am the quicker you will see a map...

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This is always an interesting issue; I'm starting with a non-modified map (though lots of shades at the lower end, which should make it easy to mentally 'adjust'; using lead % rather than vote % helps here I think as you can immediately see which wards were close) mostly to get familiar with the data so to have more fun with candidate/party vote maps, but intend to do a modified one later.

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What's up with those two Labour wards in southeastern Croydon? I thought so far out south was basically already Surrey, which the wards around it seem to affirm looking at those results.

New Addington; big LCC overspill estate.

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How do the Khan and Goldsmith areas of strength compare with typical GE behavior? That is, are there areas where Khan/Goldsmith performed disproportionately well compared with Labour/Conservative parliamentary candidates (besides the aforementioned non-Muslim South Asian areas)?

Well there's the obvious issue of only two parties having much strength which confuses things in certain places. As well as that Khan underperformed in majority white areas in the outer ring (partly because Labour supporters there are less likely to vote in London elections, partly for other reasons; no one mentioned the latter during the campaign because - unlike the Gujarati esp. thing - this was auto-factored in and no mystery) though actually by less than Livingstone tended to, and overperformed in inner South London, particularly in his own borough and especially in his own constituency.

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Great to see North London backing Khan in big numbers. So what was Khan best Ward?

Little Ilford (East Ham in 'Newham') with 77% of the vote. Fun fact about Little Ilford: the largest census-designated ethnic group there (Bengalis) make up less than 20% of the population.

Goldsmith's was (this will shock everyone) Knightsbridge & Belgravia with 76%.

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Where did the Green\Libdem\Ukip (I assume Romford) do best?

Berry (Green) - Herne Hill (Lambeth) 15.3%, Pidgeon (LibDem) - Surrey Docks (Southwark; yuppie flats) 17.3%, Whittle (UKIP) - Heaton (Havering; one of the Harold Hill wards so what most people would think of as Romford even if not in the parliamentary constituency) 19.5%.

The candidate of the Women's Equality Party polled best in (looooool) Crouch End (5.4%), George Galloway in one of the North Kensington wards (Golborne) 5.7% which was not expected and Prince Zylinski in Greenford Green (5.1%) which absolutely was.

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Mind clarifying that comment on Prince Zylinski?

That part of Ealing isn't far off 15% Polish born.

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Errors possible as are minor inconsistencies in rounding (though I hope not much). Pretty is the main thing though.

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More maps!





Others over the next few days.