If you could predict the Republican nominee who would it be and why?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Discuss.

[Cryptic]

Bush. Money.

[dudeabides]

Jeb Bush. He's got the name I.D., money, and the backing of the establishment and moderate wing of the party. Since 1952, only twice (1964 & 1980) has the establishment lost the nomination.

Also, despite his disagreements with the party base on education and immigration, his values are most in line with the largest number of Republicans.

[/]

George Pataki

[TomC]

Bush. Name recognition, money. Walker and Rubio just don't seem ready for prime time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Paul. Minority support and we haven't had a conservative president in a while. It's time for a period of private action

Do you not know how polls work? Paul has 0 votes.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Bush. Money.

And machine. He's by no means the shoe-in Hillary is, but he's the most likely nominee right now.

[dudeabides]

Jeb Bush. He's got the name I.D., money, and the backing of the establishment and moderate wing of the party. Since 1952, only twice (1964 & 1980) has the establishment lost the nomination.

Also, despite his disagreements with the party base on education and immigration, his values are most in line with the largest number of Republicans.

Not true.

If you look at what he was able to accomplish in Florida and what he has said on issues, you'll notice his views are in line with the majority of Republicans on economic, foreign policy, and social issues.

[Blair]

It's funny how, people's predictions/analysis seems to match their personal views.

This isn't 2013-Rand Paul isn't going to be the nominee. He's got a crap campaign, he's left his base behind and he's more hated by the establishment than any other nominee other than Trump. Romney, Mccain, Bush, Dole and Bush Snr show that outsiders don't tend to do that well. Not only is Paul an average campaigner-but he's not this mythical beast that many think he is.

Rubio doesn't have anything more than a story, he should have waited until 2020. He'll frame it as a JFK type move but he's no Jack Kennedy.

Walker has proved himself to be rather weak-his foreign policy comments, his gay marriage stance and his flip flopping views mean he's a liability

[heatmaster]

It will be Bush, very likely for the Republicans vs. Barring a meltdown of epic proportions, Hillary Clinton. However this time a Bush will overcome a Clinton, revenge for 1992😉

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jeb will be nominee. But it isnt 2004 anymore. His brother left a legacy. He gave 12 different answers on Iraq. And he hasnt stepped out of brothers' shadow.

It wont be 2008 or 2012, but it will be a tight election.

[heatmaster]

Yes you are right, it isn't 2004 and Jeb cannot be held responsible for the decisions made over Iraq, anymore than Democrats don't expect Bobby Kennedy to be held responsible for the decisions made on Vietnam made by JFK, particularly post Diem assassination, even if Bobby was in the room, Jeb wasn't in the room, unless being Governor of Florida gave him special privileges. He seems to be burdened with all the negatives regarding Iraq. I thought there was separation of powers and all that constitutional mumbo jumbo. Maybe I'm missing something here. Maybe I'm being obtuse😮

[Higgs]

Paul. Minority support and we haven't had a conservative president in a while. It's time for a period of private action

Do you not know how polls work? Paul has 0 votes.

This makes zero sense.

He's talking about the poll for this thread in which Paul has zero votes. He's confused why you made a post saying he's your pick, yet didn't vote for him in the poll.

[Suburbia]

Bush,  Rubio,  Paul or Kasich. Most likely Bush.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes you are right, it isn't 2004 and Jeb cannot be held responsible for the decisions made over Iraq, anymore than Democrats don't expect Bobby Kennedy to be held responsible for the decisions made on Vietnam made by JFK, particularly post Diem assassination, even if Bobby was in the room, Jeb wasn't in the room, unless being Governor of Florida gave him special privileges. He seems to be burdened with all the negatives regarding Iraq. I thought there was separation of powers and all that constitutional mumbo jumbo. Maybe I'm missing something here. Maybe I'm being obtuse😮

Christie, his rival, said that Iraq was a mistake. And Lindsey Graham. Jeb failed at first to acknowledge that. But, Dubya and Herbert Walker Bush didnt make things better with economy, either.

[oeoyeleye]

Bush. I think he'll win NH, as the straight talking come-from-behind vote will be split. Then he'll do well(maybe 2nd place) in SC, winning the wealthier, older parts of the state, with the socon vote being split. His resources will help him on Super Tuesday, and his strength by then will make him the Florida frontrunner over Rubio. I think Walker will fizzle out. Rubio doesn't seem particularly well fit for any of the early states besides maybe Nevada, and by the time we get to Florida, Bush's strength will make him the frontrunner.

[Maxwell]

I think Paul has a non-zero chance, but even though everyone knows my opinion on him, he's only like the third most likely person to get the nomination and that's optimistically. To me, Rubio will take the mantle from Bush because he's a better salesman.

[dudeabides]

Paul. Minority support and we haven't had a conservative president in a while. It's time for a period of private action

Do you not know how polls work? Paul has 0 votes.

This makes zero sense.

Jeb Bush. He's got the name I.D., money, and the backing of the establishment and moderate wing of the party. Since 1952, only twice (1964 & 1980) has the establishment lost the nomination.

Also, despite his disagreements with the party base on education and immigration, his values are most in line with the largest number of Republicans.

Not true.

If you look at what he was able to accomplish in Florida and what he has said on issues, you'll notice his views are in line with the majority of Republicans on economic, foreign policy, and social issues.

The average republican is far more fiscally conservative than Bush

From the Tampa Bay Times 5/1/15:

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Governor Bush is not his brother. Yes, President George W. Bush spent too much money on domestic programs and signed into law the largest expansion of medicare in history. In Florida, Governor Bush actually reformed his state's medicaid system and made it more private. On entitlement reform and fiscal issues, Jeb Bush is not George W. Bush or George H.W. Bush.

[Abraham Reagan]

Bush for three reasons: money, his message, and his record.

[Mehmentum]

I'm not sure, but I think Bush is overrated.

His family name and policy positions will weigh him down, but perhaps more importantly is that his reception by the establishment has been lukewarm.  Look at the endorsements he's received.  Looking at current major office holder endorsements (Senator, Governor, or Representative), he has about one third of Mitt Romney's support at this point in the 2012 campaign, and about a sixth of John McCain's support at this point in 2008.  This indicates that a lot of the establishment is holding off, seeing if a better alternative emerges.

[King]

Walker. Conservative enough, folksy enough, and raises good amounts of money.

[Senator Cris]

Bush. Money, machine, establishment.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Bush, Walker, Rubio in that order.

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Bernie Sanders