Will Hillary win by a smaller or greater margin than Obama-2012?

[King]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

[DS0816]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

Not the same map.

No map has been repeated exactly (a duplication) with any of the past 57 United States presidential elections of 1789 to 2012.

[YaBoyNY]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

Not the same map.

No map has been repeated exactly (a duplication) with any of the past 57 United States presidential elections of 1789 to 2012.

There's a first for everything.

[King]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

Not the same map.

No map has been repeated exactly (a duplication) with any of the past 57 United States presidential elections of 1789 to 2012.

And no incumbent President has ever been re-elected with the Redskins losing the week before the election and yet...

[DS0816]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

Not the same map.

No map has been repeated exactly (a duplication) with any of the past 57 United States presidential elections of 1789 to 2012.

There's a first for everything.

Not "everything".

[Former Democrat]

smaller

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

Not the same map.

No map has been repeated exactly (a duplication) with any of the past 57 United States presidential elections of 1789 to 2012.

There's a first for everything.

Not "everything".

I really want to know the deeper meaning behind thes cautious words of wisdom even though I know one doesn't exist.

[Lincoln Republican]

Will Hillary lose by a smaller or greater margin than Romney-2012?

[RJEvans]

 Well I'm surprised this poll is 50-50.

Given this is a third Democratic term, I don't think she will have a higher margin. Even given the historical nature of the election. She is polarizing and the GOP is going to be energized. I just don't see how it can happen.

[IceSpear]

Will Hillary lose by a smaller or greater margin than Romney-2012?

What do you mean? You told us Romney would win in a landslide.

[Flake]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

Except with the addition of North Carolina.

[WVdemocrat]

Why is everybody assuming precedent is God? I know how unprecedented it is for a candidate seeking a consecutive third term for their party to expand the map, but 2016 is a special case. Each Republican candidate has a big weakness, and Hillary I think has very little lasting weaknesses.

Hillary can expand the map in 2016, and I think she will. I think she has more of a will, and really more of a capability, than Obama to pick up one or two more states. In 2012, Obama showed no interest in picking up Missouri or Arizona or Montana or Georgia, or in holding Indiana. I think Missouri and Arizona are two very possible pickups for her in 2016, the other three would be in a landslide.

[Del Tachi]

She will lose.

[Sir Mohamed]

It all depends on the candidate and circumstances.
Against Cruz, Santorum, Huckabee or Paul she'll win by a greater margin. Against, Bush, Walker, Rubio potentially smaller.

I honestly could see the '16 election be a 50-48 (Clinton) win.

I agree. And it depends on the campaigns of course.

[pbrower2a]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

Much so. I can imagine her picking up North Carolina and Arizona but losing Florida... basically a wash.

Her wins will generally be by margins similar to those of Obama in 2012 (getting the sorts of blowout wins in some states that Obama won in 2008 generally requires a Reagan-like victory), but her losses will be much closer.   

She is less toxic to the Mountain and Deep South than Obama was, which means that she will not lose by margins similar to those of "Walter McGovern" or "George Mondale".

The six states I see most likely to flip to Hillary Clinton in 2016 from Romney in 2012 are in this order:

North Carolina
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
Missouri
Kansas

...That I have Kansas sixth shows how unlikely it is that Hillary Clinton will even approach 400 electoral votes. That figures a swift meltdown of the Kansas Republican Party with a mass defection of moderates to the Democratic Party.   

[Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez]

I think it's quite possible that North Carolina and Arizona flip to Hillary.  I think she'd win at a level of Obama's 2008 victory.

That's based on today.  Today, the economy is considered to be doing better, and the GOP is not seen as having a solution for the economic problems that remain.  Obamacare has NEVER been this explosive issue, and Americans are NOT on board with more foreign military involvements; they just want to get out of the ones they're in now.

Events could change things.  If the economy takes a sudden, drastic downturn, or if there's sudden hyper-inflation, yes, the GOP's chances go up.  But if things are like they are now, the popularity of Hillary with Democrats, the "Madam President" thing, the flaky crowd of GOP contenders, all spell defeat for the GOP.  There's no single Republican I can point to with confidence and say that he/she can take on all comers and beat them.

[dudeabides]

Jeb Bush will be the 45th President of the United States.

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were elected and re-elected as President because both appealed to America's yearning for change, both gave a good speech, both could relate to people, and both were disciplined on the campaign trail.

Hillary Clinton now represents the status-quo, she's good but not great at speeches, she comes across as out of touch with ordinary Americans, and she is undisciplined on the campaign trail, as proven in 2008.

Jeb Bush will not only appeal to the nation's yearning for change, but for leadership that seeks to bridge the partisan divide - congress has an approval rating of under 15%. Like Hillary, he's no Ronald Reagan, but he can give a decent speech. He can relate to people far better than Hillary, and he is very disciplined and on message, yet he can answer ANY question with an impressive depth of knowledge.

Take all that, plus foreign policy and a weak economic recovery, plus the fact that Clinton won't perform as well with blacks, hispanics, and centrists as Obama did, and you have a narrow Jeb Bush victory (Hillary will still do well with these groups, plus win the female vote).

[Frodo]

I anticipate the 2016 election will be close and hard-fought given how much more formidable the GOP field is shaping up to be compared with 2008 and 2012, but given Hillary Clinton is white, this will allow her to make inroads where Barack Obama dared not tread....   

[Maxwell]

Jeb Bush will be the 45th President of the United States.

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were elected and re-elected as President because both appealed to America's yearning for change, both gave a good speech, both could relate to people, and both were disciplined on the campaign trail.

Hillary Clinton now represents the status-quo, she's good but not great at speeches, she comes across as out of touch with ordinary Americans, and she is undisciplined on the campaign trail, as proven in 2008.

Jeb Bush will not only appeal to the nation's yearning for change, but for leadership that seeks to bridge the partisan divide - congress has an approval rating of under 15%. Like Hillary, he's no Ronald Reagan, but he can give a decent speech. He can relate to people far better than Hillary, and he is very disciplined and on message, yet he can answer ANY question with an impressive depth of knowledge.

Take all that, plus foreign policy and a weak economic recovery, plus the fact that Clinton won't perform as well with blacks, hispanics, and centrists as Obama did, and you have a narrow Jeb Bush victory (Hillary will still do well with these groups, plus win the female vote).

[Bojack Horseman]

Larger margin, same amount of EV.

Except with the addition of North Carolina.

This.

[Gekkonidae]

Smaller, or she'll lose.

[WVdemocrat]

Jeb Bush will be the 45th President of the United States.

Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were elected and re-elected as President because both appealed to America's yearning for change, both gave a good speech, both could relate to people, and both were disciplined on the campaign trail.

Hillary Clinton now represents the status-quo, she's good but not great at speeches, she comes across as out of touch with ordinary Americans, and she is undisciplined on the campaign trail, as proven in 2008.

Jeb Bush will not only appeal to the nation's yearning for change, but for leadership that seeks to bridge the partisan divide - congress has an approval rating of under 15%. Like Hillary, he's no Ronald Reagan, but he can give a decent speech. He can relate to people far better than Hillary, and he is very disciplined and on message, yet he can answer ANY question with an impressive depth of knowledge.

Take all that, plus foreign policy and a weak economic recovery, plus the fact that Clinton won't perform as well with blacks, hispanics, and centrists as Obama did, and you have a narrow Jeb Bush victory (Hillary will still do well with these groups, plus win the female vote).

Yeah, Bush is the candidate of the future, but Clinton is a blast from the past. Nice logic.

Republicans were marching to the fife of "weak recovery" and "Obama's led the Middle East to chaos and let Russia run wild" in 2012. It didn't work then, and it especially won't work with a Bush on the ticket, whose brother is responsible for this mess.

I really hope he runs on that though. I can see the debates now...

JEB: It's been a weak recovery. I'd do better at -
HILLARY: What? Getting us out of your brother's mess.
JEB: Uh, well, um -

JEB: I would support a robust strategy for defeating ISIL. President Obama has failed to -
HILLARY: What? Clean up your brother's other mess?
JEB: Aw, jeez...

Keep doing that though. Just remember that a referendum on the 2000s and the 1990s is exactly what we want in 2016. Just remember that.

[IceSpear]

By the way, isn't it possible she could do better in the popular vote but worse in the electoral college (or vice versa, but that seems less likely)?

[WVdemocrat]

By the way, isn't it possible she could do better in the popular vote but worse in the electoral college (or vice versa, but that seems less likely)?

It's possible, but personally I think she'll pick up a couple states. North Carolina, Missouri come to mind...

[DS0816]

If Hillary Clinton ends up winning the 2016 presidential election, and wins a Democratic pickup from North Carolina, she won't be seeing Florida flip Republican. Her popular-vote margin will be larger. If she gains just the state of North Carolina, for 347 electoral votes, she will likely end up with an estimated increase of three percentage points with having won the U.S. Popular Vote (as compared to the 2012 re-election of incumbent Democratic president Barack Obama). If Arizona were to flip to her, so would Georgia. And then we'd be seeing her win the U.S. Popular Vote by about ten percentage points. (And, with that, Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, Indiana, and Missouri would be on the cusp.)