Who wins a state's electoral votes in the event of a tie?
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  Who wins a state's electoral votes in the event of a tie?
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Author Topic: Who wins a state's electoral votes in the event of a tie?  (Read 13980 times)
JonathanSwift
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« on: May 30, 2015, 07:31:15 AM »

In 2000, George W. Bush famously (or infamously, depending on your point of view) won Florida by a margin of 537 votes. If those 537 people had stayed home and the two candidates had gotten the exact same number of votes, who would have won the state?

Is there any legal provision for what happens in the event of an actual tie?
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2015, 10:16:10 AM »

Some compromise would be worked out.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2015, 07:41:06 PM »

Depends on however that State resolves ties.  I think most would make it be a matter of random chance, but frankly I doubt any tie after the initial result of a statewide election would still be a tie after a recount.
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muon2
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2015, 09:59:47 AM »

Depends on however that State resolves ties.  I think most would make it be a matter of random chance, but frankly I doubt any tie after the initial result of a statewide election would still be a tie after a recount.

I agree, and the 2008 MN Sen race is a good example of the amount of swing that might be expected. MN has very good audit procedures for their elections, but even so there can be ballots in dispute. The initial count was Coleman leading Franken by 215 votes out of 2,885,555 cast. After the recount Franken led by 225 votes out of 2,887,337 cast. After the final court challenge the margin favored Franken by 312 votes out of 2,887,646 cast.

There are two factors to consider here. First is the change in the ballots cast. MN ended up with and additional 2091 ballots found to be valid. Missing votes and unreported or partial precincts can happen just due to human or technical errors. In this case it resulted in an additional 0.072% ballots cast which make up less than one in a thousand. However, when the margin is also less than one in a thousand, that matters.

The second is that the recovered ballots are unlikely to exactly mirror the statewide vote. That was true in MN where Franken gained 1,254 votes and Coleman gained 727. Statistical fluctuations can seem large because the added ballots are not uniformly distributed across the state. So in the case of a tie, it's very likely that a recount will find more valid votes, and it is highly unlikely that they will split exactly evenly when those added ballots total in the hundreds or thousands as they would for presidential electors.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2015, 08:03:51 PM »

A second-chance vote would be a-pt if the state does not decide the election. Otherwise -- the best course is to either not assign electoral votes, split the electoral votes exactly, or use a random method such as a coin toss. 
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2015, 09:10:59 AM »

Do-over?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_New_Hampshire,_1974
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2015, 10:31:50 AM »

A runoff election would seem the most appropriate outcome. 
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2015, 04:18:08 PM »

In Florida, out-of-hat drawing.

Very good article on xkcd about it.
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Gunnar Larsson
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2015, 04:33:33 AM »

Depends on however that State resolves ties.  I think most would make it be a matter of random chance, but frankly I doubt any tie after the initial result of a statewide election would still be a tie after a recount.

Surely it is enough that it is a tie after the recount?
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2015, 09:07:22 PM »

Rock, Paper, Scissors
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rbt48
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« Reply #10 on: November 16, 2015, 05:25:20 PM »

I'm guessing if the election were already decided by results in the other states, the electors would be split 50-50 with an odd number elector (if the case) chosen by a coin toss.

If it is a close election and the state with the tie determines the winner, then the state legislature would likely choose the electors IAW Article 2 of the Constitution:
"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress: but no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector."

One can guess that the party with the most legislators would likely prevail.
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rbt48
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« Reply #11 on: November 17, 2015, 03:00:01 PM »

Pondering my last post here, I'll add some other thought that might stymie the state legislatures selecting the electors:
- If one chamber is R and the other is D, but envision a larger total number of Rs (think Kentucky), the D controlled chamber might refuse to convene.
- If you have an SoS of the opposite party of the legislature, the SoS could refuse to certify the results and never send them to Washington.
- In states which require a 2/3 or 60% quorum (think Texas or Wisconsin), even with a majority, the proceedings might not move forward as the chambers might not be able to convene.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #12 on: December 22, 2015, 01:19:14 AM »

Disputed ballots are counted. This happened in a local election my uncle was in. The candidates were tied and the discretionary? (i think thats what they're called) ballots were counted. These are basically any ballot disputed.

He won by two votes in the end BTW
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2015, 09:42:07 AM »

It should be up to the electors. Perhaps split evenly if it's an even number?
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SteveRogers
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« Reply #14 on: December 25, 2015, 03:11:35 AM »

It should be up to the electors. Perhaps split evenly if it's an even number?

It doesn't work that way. You have to figure out whose electors get chosen.

Also, y'all can make this thread a thousand times, and I'll keep making the same dumb, increasingly out-of-date reference:

Also, my understanding of the law in New Mexico is that in the event of a tie the state's electoral votes are determined by Kevin Costner, and hilarious hijinks ensue as both Presidential candidates attempt to personally woo him for his vote. 
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #15 on: December 25, 2015, 03:12:50 AM »

It should be up to the electors. Perhaps split evenly if it's an even number?

It doesn't work that way. You have to figure out whose electors get chosen.

Also, y'all can make this thread a thousand times, and I'll keep making the same dumb, increasingly out-of-date reference:

Also, my understanding of the law in New Mexico is that in the event of a tie the state's electoral votes are determined by Kevin Costner, and hilarious hijinks ensue as both Presidential candidates attempt to personally woo him for his vote. 

What out of date reference are you making?
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DKrol
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« Reply #16 on: December 25, 2015, 11:41:23 PM »

It should be up to the electors. Perhaps split evenly if it's an even number?

It doesn't work that way. You have to figure out whose electors get chosen.

Also, y'all can make this thread a thousand times, and I'll keep making the same dumb, increasingly out-of-date reference:

Also, my understanding of the law in New Mexico is that in the event of a tie the state's electoral votes are determined by Kevin Costner, and hilarious hijinks ensue as both Presidential candidates attempt to personally woo him for his vote. 

What out of date reference are you making?

It's a reference to the 2008 film Swing Vote, starring Kevin Costner.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #17 on: December 26, 2015, 05:08:33 AM »

Old jokes are always even funnier when you have to explain them to children too young to get it.
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #18 on: December 27, 2015, 12:42:36 AM »

So what happens in a tie?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: December 27, 2015, 08:11:19 AM »

In a tie in electoral college in 1800, 1824, 1876, it went to House.  If it is a state tie, it goes to state Supreme Crt, but in 2000, OConnor who interjected, wrongly she said late it went to SCOTUS.
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2016, 09:06:51 PM »

In a tie in electoral college in 1800, 1824, 1876, it went to House.  If it is a state tie, it goes to state Supreme Crt, but in 2000, OConnor who interjected, wrongly she said late it went to SCOTUS.

It's a good thing no one tied in 2000.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2016, 10:56:37 PM »

In a tie in electoral college in 1800, 1824, 1876, it went to House.  If it is a state tie, it goes to state Supreme Crt, but in 2000, OConnor who interjected, wrongly she said late it went to SCOTUS.

It's a good thing no one tied in 2000.
Well, we'll never know. They stopped counting...
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Hillary pays minimum wage
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« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2016, 11:23:05 PM »

In a tie in electoral college in 1800, 1824, 1876, it went to House.  If it is a state tie, it goes to state Supreme Crt, but in 2000, OConnor who interjected, wrongly she said late it went to SCOTUS.

It's a good thing no one tied in 2000.
Well, we'll never know. They stopped counting...

Why not count every state every time several times then? It was very stupid to do.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #23 on: January 10, 2016, 01:18:52 PM »

Why not count every state every time several times then? It was very stupid to do.

There were actual issues that justified a recount. In that given case, I can't see how anyone wouldn't want to know who actually got x amount of votes, and this election was what first got me thinking about politics, even if it did take many years to become a significant interest.

Just couldn't understand how they could halt a recount in a very close election where there were obvious issues during voting. It's not like we were electing a city council member. This was for POTUS damn it.
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muon2
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« Reply #24 on: January 10, 2016, 05:06:49 PM »
« Edited: January 10, 2016, 05:10:21 PM by muon2 »

Why not count every state every time several times then? It was very stupid to do.

There were actual issues that justified a recount. In that given case, I can't see how anyone wouldn't want to know who actually got x amount of votes, and this election was what first got me thinking about politics, even if it did take many years to become a significant interest.

Just couldn't understand how they could halt a recount in a very close election where there were obvious issues during voting. It's not like we were electing a city council member. This was for POTUS damn it.

Depends on however that State resolves ties.  I think most would make it be a matter of random chance, but frankly I doubt any tie after the initial result of a statewide election would still be a tie after a recount.

I agree, and the 2008 MN Sen race is a good example of the amount of swing that might be expected. MN has very good audit procedures for their elections, but even so there can be ballots in dispute. The initial count was Coleman leading Franken by 215 votes out of 2,885,555 cast. After the recount Franken led by 225 votes out of 2,887,337 cast. After the final court challenge the margin favored Franken by 312 votes out of 2,887,646 cast.

There are two factors to consider here. First is the change in the ballots cast. MN ended up with and additional 2091 ballots found to be valid. Missing votes and unreported or partial precincts can happen just due to human or technical errors. In this case it resulted in an additional 0.072% ballots cast which make up less than one in a thousand. However, when the margin is also less than one in a thousand, that matters.

The second is that the recovered ballots are unlikely to exactly mirror the statewide vote. That was true in MN where Franken gained 1,254 votes and Coleman gained 727. Statistical fluctuations can seem large because the added ballots are not uniformly distributed across the state. So in the case of a tie, it's very likely that a recount will find more valid votes, and it is highly unlikely that they will split exactly evenly when those added ballots total in the hundreds or thousands as they would for presidential electors.

Statistically this is not an exact number that can be known in any vote system. There will always be inconsistencies that can't be eliminated - think of voting as polling with a very small margin of error.

What makes my example above interesting is that MN requires an election audit every cycle and it involves a recount of a large number of precincts around the state by a group of experts. Many of those same experts were involved in the Franken recount, so it was possible to compare the same recounted precincts by two different trained experts. The audit results were mostly the same but there were slight differences, enough that the expected margin of error measuring the total statewide vote was greater than the swing from the recount. The race was a statistical tie, and another recount from scratch could just as likely to swing the race back as to keep the official recount result. The effect of the court picking the count that it did was effectively a coin flip from a statistician's viewpoint.
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