FiveThirtyEight Senate probability updates:

[JRP1994]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-2016-the-democrats-strike-back/?ex_cid=538twitter

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lol

[Nyvin]

Lol...Wisconsin 85% chance of Dem victory...

[Heisenberg]

If only Mike Coffman ran in Colorado.

[This account no longer in use.]

Doesn't matter, 538 is about as reliable as the Onion now.

[Vosem]

Also, SC more likely to flip than MO? GA more likely to flip than IN? Really?

A lot of the weird juxtapositions are explained by the fact that the model adds in a bunch of uncertainty when there is no little or polling conducted, and is much more certain when polling has been conducted.

Anyway, Silver is a terrible pundit but a decent statistician. When he shows his work (like now) it's probably fine. When he pulls numbers out of his ass, like he spent most of 2015 doing, you shouldn't put too much stock in them.

[Virginiá]

Well that's neat. They linked to Atlas for some of their statistic references, such as in their analysis for NH/OH.

[Maxwell]

If only Mike Coffman ran in Colorado.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/23/mike-coffman-repeat-interview_n_1540949.html

I wish he had too.

[Xing]

It seems they're riding on the assumption that polling right now is accurate, and that senate races will be very similar to the presidential race.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

> Illinois lower than Wisconsin

[Heisenberg]

If only Mike Coffman ran in Colorado.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/23/mike-coffman-repeat-interview_n_1540949.html

I wish he had too.

Ha! He still won in 2012, and his district is now slightly Democratic leaning on paper. He's much better than the othe Republicans. Scott Tipton, Bill Owens, John Suthers, Walker Stapleton, and Cynthia Coffman (Mike's wife) were all other top recruits Republicans could have fielded. I just can't believe how much the Republicans keep blowing the Class 3 seat from Colorado.