Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

[Joe Biden 2020]

I don't know if this is just a false hope by Trump (probably is) or if this is genuine, but he said on an interview that aired this weekend that he is considering skipping the first debate because he knows everybody will be gunning for him.  Is it true that he might skip the debate or is that just empty rhetoric and wishful thinking?

He's a total wimp if that's the case. He's the guy who likes to cast himself as "tough" more than anything, so I highly doubt it.

Kind of what I thought.  I just had to throw it out there.

[Eraserhead]

Bushie, are you thinking about switching your support to Trump?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Bushie, are you thinking about switching your support to Trump?

Not a chance.  I can't stand the guy.  I am keep my support in Rand Paul's camp.  Now, I have not totally given up on Chris Christie and I wish him to do well, but I think Paul has a better chance at the nomination and the general than Christie.

[Eraserhead]

Bushie, are you thinking about switching your support to Trump?

Not a chance.  I can't stand the guy.  I am keep my support in Rand Paul's camp.  Now, I have not totally given up on Chris Christie and I wish him to do well, but I think Paul has a better chance at the nomination and the general than Christie.

If Paul and Christie both flame out where do you go next?

[Mr. Morden]

Let's assume for a moment that the latest CNN poll and the new Quinnipiac poll are both in the "final five", with the remaining three polls yet to come.  Averaging those two polls together, we have:

Trump 19%
Bush 12.5%
Walker 11.5%
Cruz 6%
Paul 6%
Rubio 6%
Huckabee 5.5%
Carson 5%
Kasich 4.5%
Christie 3.5%
----------
Perry 2.5%
Jindal 2%
Santorum 1.5%

So looking quite good for Kasich.  The bounce he got out of his announcement may have been small, but just big enough to get him into the debate.

[Eraserhead]

Ugh, no. I want Rick Perry and his glasses in the debate, not the boring Ohio guy.

[Torie]

Ugh, no. I want Rick Perry and his glasses in the debate, not the boring Ohio guy.

I'm enjoying my schadenfreude.

[The Other Castro]

Christie seems to be in danger of losing his spot to Perry. If the 5 polls are a new Fox, new Monmouth, Quinnipiac, CNN, and ABC, then there is some real risk. Perry would only need to lead by 1 in both new polls to knock Christie out (assuming Kasich maintains his new higher numbers).

[Bull Moose Base]

Ugh, no. I want Rick Perry and his glasses in the debate, not the boring Ohio guy.

My preferred scenario: Perry edges out and humiliates Christie, has a disastrous debate again. Christie, left out of the first debate then makes the second and begins the greatest political comeback of all time, only to get indicted during the primaries.

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/decisive-debate-polls-set-for-release-120790.html?hp=r3_4

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So the likely remaining polls are NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, and Fox?  Have any of those pollsters shown any kind of systematic house effect this cycle, skewing their results in favor of any particular candidate or type of candidate?

[Bull Moose Base]

Christie just claimed Monmouth has a vendetta against him, and even went so far as to claim they only polled New Hampshire as a way to get him.

[Senator Cris]

Will the percentages rounded up or not?

[Torie]

Will the percentages rounded up or not?

In that vein, what is the rule if two candidates are tied for 10th place?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I hope Perry knocks Christie out, we don't need to loudmouths at the debate.

[Mr. Morden]

Will the percentages rounded up or not?

In that vein, what is the rule if two candidates are tied for 10th place?

They say that if there's a tie for 10th place, they'll just invite both the people who are tied, and have 11 candidates on stage.

But, AFAIK, they haven't explained if there will be rounding.  If the 10th place candidate is at 2.2% and the 11th place is at 1.9%, do they round both of those to 2% and say it's a tie?  I don't think they've explained that part yet.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new Quinni Poll

Trump has largest lead yet. Kasich has bumped into top ten, knocking Perry down to the "Forum'.  Race for fourth (and therefore a key podium slot) is really heating up.


=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump   19.4
2   Bush   13.0
3   Walker   11.8
4   Rubio   6.2
5   Paul   6.0
6   Huckabee   5.4 ↑
7   Cruz   5.2 ↓
8   Carson   5.2
9   Christie   3.2
10   Kasich   2.8 ↑

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry   2.2 ↓
12   Santorum   1.4
13   Jindal   1.4
14   Fiorina   0.8
15   Pataki   0.6
16   Graham   0.4
17   Gilmore   0.0  ?

** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank
? Unclear if will meet minimum poll inclusion requirement

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Treat Monmouth "<1%" as 1% (as opposed to 0%)
- Allow multiple polls from same pollster
- Round to 1 decimal

Currently averaging latest polls from Quinnipiac, CNN, ABC, FOX, USA Today

[Likely Voter]

Will the percentages rounded up or not?

In that vein, what is the rule if two candidates are tied for 10th place?

They say that if there's a tie for 10th place, they'll just invite both the people who are tied, and have 11 candidates on stage.

But, AFAIK, they haven't explained if there will be rounding.  If the 10th place candidate is at 2.2% and the 11th place is at 1.9%, do they round both of those to 2% and say it's a tie?  I don't think they've explained that part yet.

That is correct. Fox has not said anything really about how they will calculate the results. Now that they have dropped the 1% criteria for the Forum, rounding to the closest whole number I think is more possible. Before that it risked leaving only 2 or 3 candidates in the Forum.

[Torie]

For those with a fly specking legal bent as to the text of the rules, when it comes to determining who gets into the "adult" debate, well, they are out of luck, because nobody knows, except Roger Ailes, and he isn't saying, and maybe he has not decided himself.

[Likely Voter]

For those with a fly specking legal bent as to the text of the rules, when it comes to determining who gets into the "adult" debate, well, they are out of luck, because nobody knows, except Roger Ailes, and he isn't saying, and maybe he has not decided himself.

I think one of the reasons they have been so vague is so that they can massage things at the end in case there are any close calls. But there is only so much you could do. Let's say you wanted Trump out and/or Fiorina in, there simply is no way to make that happen with any combination of polls. Even the close race between Perry and Kasich for the 10th spot (highlighted in the article) seems to be over. Not sure what combo of polls Team Perry thinks they should use that gets him in and Kasich out but even if there were one, I imagine Fox would prefer Kasich (and lucky for them, it looks like they wont have to arbitrarily throw out legit polls to make it happen).

[Bull Moose Base]

Will the percentages rounded up or not?

In that vein, what is the rule if two candidates are tied for 10th place?

They say that if there's a tie for 10th place, they'll just invite both the people who are tied, and have 11 candidates on stage.

But, AFAIK, they haven't explained if there will be rounding.  If the 10th place candidate is at 2.2% and the 11th place is at 1.9%, do they round both of those to 2% and say it's a tie?  I don't think they've explained that part yet.

Not to mention the numbers are rounded within each poll

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

For maximum attention, Trump should refuse to show up; then buy up all the corresponding airtime on another channel and try to beat the "official debate" in ratings by hosting a Trumpmaniathon.

[Reluctant Republican]

A shame about Perry's recent misfortune; I was hoping we'd get some fireworks between him and Trump during the debate. I suppose it's too much to hope for that Fox decides he's close enough and invites him anyway?

[Fuzzy Bear]

Ugh, no. I want Rick Perry and his glasses in the debate, not the boring Ohio guy.

My preferred scenario: Perry edges out and humiliates Christie, has a disastrous debate again. Christie, left out of the first debate then makes the second and begins the greatest political comeback of all time, only to get indicted during the primaries.

We can only hope!

[Crumpets]

Ugh, no. I want Rick Perry and his glasses in the debate, not the boring Ohio guy.

My preferred scenario: Perry edges out and humiliates Christie, has a disastrous debate again. Christie, left out of the first debate then makes the second and begins the greatest political comeback of all time, only to get indicted during the primaries general.

FTFY

[Mr. Morden]

If, as we're guessing, the final three national polls will be NBC/WSJ, Fox, and Monmouth, when do we expect them to come out?  I just looked up their normal timing.  NBC/WSJ tends to conduct polls from Sunday to Thursday, but doesn't release the results until either the following Sunday night or Monday.  So their poll is probably already done, but they're still preparing the public release for it, which we'll see on Sunday or Monday.

Monmouth tends to poll from Thursday to Sunday, and then releases the results the very next day, on Monday.  So I assume their poll is still in the field, and we'll get it on Monday.

Fox is less consistent, so I don't know what to expect.

As a reminder, the cutoff time for these polls to be released is Tuesday at 5pm.