Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)
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  Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)
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Author Topic: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)  (Read 21400 times)
Donald Trump 2016 !
captainkangaroo
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« Reply #25 on: June 22, 2015, 09:31:18 PM »

Poor Donald Cry
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #26 on: June 22, 2015, 09:36:09 PM »

Since Santorum, Fiorina, Graham, and Pataki have already announced, they can't really count on using an announcement bounce to save them.

Kasich, on the other hand, still has a shot at getting an announcement bounce that puts him in the top 10.  All he has to do is double his support.  Tongue
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #27 on: June 22, 2015, 09:47:47 PM »

Due to the infrequency of live phone polling it takes about a month to get your bounce in. As of now only two of the five polls are after Graham and Perry's announcement, and only one after Trump's obviously. 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #28 on: June 22, 2015, 09:50:37 PM »

I forget, have they said what the cutoff date is for these polls?  Presumably they're not going to wait until the day before the debate to announce who's being invited.  Maybe they'll only include polls released by July 31st, or something like that.  I expect a flurry of polling in late July because of this.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #29 on: June 22, 2015, 09:58:34 PM »

This is the FOX criteria:
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It may be that all the major polling outfits will try to get one out in the week before Aug. 4, which may mean that there will be fewer (live phone) polls in early/mid July.

And it looks like that 1% thing could be an issue for Jindal who would not even qualify for the second tier 'forum' FOX is holding. Of course he will have his theoretical 'bump' but I think that after spending all year trying to get attention and polling below 1%, Jindal may not run in the end.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #30 on: June 22, 2015, 10:35:53 PM »

If your standards exclude the sitting governor of Ohio, your standards are stupid.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2015, 06:10:14 PM »

UPDATE: with new FOX poll

Trump leaps into 8th place, past both Christie and Perry


=======IN========

1   Bush   13.8
2   Walker*   11.4
3   Rubio   11.0
4   Carson   9.4
5   Huckabee   8.4
6   Paul   8.2
7   Cruz   5.8
8   Trump   4.2 ↑
9   Christie*   4.0 ↓
10   Perry   3.6 ↓

=======OUT========

11   Santorum   2.4
12   Fiorina   2.0
13   Kasich*   1.6
14   Graham   1.2
15   Pataki   1.0
16   Jindal   0.8


* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #32 on: June 25, 2015, 09:09:58 AM »

Trump at 1.8% after having been top two in two national polls? (As well as top three in two state polls.)
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #33 on: June 25, 2015, 09:59:15 AM »

Trump at 1.8% after having been top two in two national polls? (As well as top three in two state polls.)

Which polls were that, I'm checking everywhere and not a single poll I am seeing had Trump above 5% in any National poll
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2015, 10:11:39 AM »

Trump at 1.8% after having been top two in two national polls? (As well as top three in two state polls.)

Which polls were that, I'm checking everywhere and not a single poll I am seeing had Trump above 5% in any National poll

YouGov/The Economist has him at shared first, while FOX has him at second behind Jeb. Both have him at 11%.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2015, 10:49:41 AM »

The average is live phone polls only. No PPP or YouGov or other IVR and Internet polls.

And as you can see from my last update Trunp is at 4.2. 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2015, 10:49:58 PM »

I still think there's a chance that Kasich, as a "serious person", gets enough fawning media coverage from a campaign announcement that, combined with some favorable stories about establishment figures joining his campaign or what have you, he starts to get ~5% in the national polls.  Not saying it'll happen, but it's possible.  He has to nail his campaign rollout though, and he has to do it within the first ~10 days of July.

So yes, he *might* bump Perry out of the top 10, but otherwise I'd bet against the top 10 changing between now and the first debate.  Trump will obviously make it into the debate at this point.  Even if the Trump bubble were to deflate very quickly, he'll clearly be strong enough to remain in the top 10.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #37 on: June 25, 2015, 11:07:11 PM »

Seriously, there is no way they can use these standards. They basically amount to saying, we're going to randomly pick 7 out of the 15 candidates for every debate.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #38 on: June 26, 2015, 01:09:37 AM »

I still think there's a chance that Kasich, as a "serious person", gets enough fawning media coverage from a campaign announcement that, combined with some favorable stories about establishment figures joining his campaign or what have you, he starts to get ~5% in the national polls.  Not saying it'll happen, but it's possible.  He has to nail his campaign rollout though, and he has to do it within the first ~10 days of July.

So yes, he *might* bump Perry out of the top 10, but otherwise I'd bet against the top 10 changing between now and the first debate.  Trump will obviously make it into the debate at this point.  Even if the Trump bubble were to deflate very quickly, he'll clearly be strong enough to remain in the top 10.


There's also a chance the media just won't be able to resist kicking Christie's a$$ after he announces and marveling over the car crash that are his presidential ambitions while fawning over Kasich. Don't give up on the dream of Christie not making the cut.
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Јas
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« Reply #39 on: June 26, 2015, 03:18:17 AM »

The average is live phone polls only. No PPP or YouGov or other IVR and Internet polls.

What level of certainty do we have that “major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques” (the relevant criterion, as I understand it, for poll inclusion) means that non-live phone calls will definitively be excluded?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #40 on: June 30, 2015, 02:38:41 AM »

Breitbart.com of all places raises an interesting question:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/28/gop-presidential-debate-organizers-facing-mathematical-quandry/

Even if you accept the "top 10 from the most recent national polls" standard as legitimate, how much uncertainty is introduced just by margin of error and rounding, given how close all the candidates are?  What the chances that this set of criteria picks the "right" set of candidates, even given its own standards of how those people should be picked?
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« Reply #41 on: June 30, 2015, 02:51:49 AM »

This is the FOX criteria:
Quote
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It may be that all the major polling outfits will try to get one out in the week before Aug. 4, which may mean that there will be fewer (live phone) polls in early/mid July.

And it looks like that 1% thing could be an issue for Jindal who would not even qualify for the second tier 'forum' FOX is holding. Of course he will have his theoretical 'bump' but I think that after spending all year trying to get attention and polling below 1%, Jindal may not run in the end.

I wouldn't be totally shocked if there were 6 or more polls ending August 3rd released early on August 4th.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #42 on: July 01, 2015, 05:12:13 PM »

UPDATE: with new CNN poll

For third update in a row Trump jumps up a spot, this time passing Cruz.

After updating this for a month, so far not a single candidate has moved in or out of the top 10. The only change in qualification is Pataki has dropped out of qualifying for the 'Forum' and Jindal now as broken the 1% threshold to get in

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Bush   15.0
2   Walker*   10.6
3   Rubio   9.4
4   Carson   9.4
5   Huckabee   8.0
6   Paul   8.0
7   Trump   6.0 ↑
8   Cruz   4.8 ↓
9   Christie   3.8
10   Perry   3.4

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Santorum   2.8
12   Fiorina   2.0
13   Kasich*   2.0
14   Graham   1.2
15   Jindal   1.0 ↑

=======NO APPEARANCE=========

16   Pataki   0.4 ↓


* undeclared candidate
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #43 on: July 01, 2015, 05:16:50 PM »

Personally, I'm hoping that everyone can make it into the Forum.   They all at least deserve to be heard.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #44 on: July 06, 2015, 08:15:09 PM »

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-07-06/the-republican-debate-selection-process-is-a-new-wild-card-in-presidential-politics

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #45 on: July 07, 2015, 12:33:32 AM »

Why not just include all 16 candidates and expand the debate to 4 hours, with only a 5 minute break each hour for commercials in between ?

That would mean slightly more than 10 minutes talking time for each candidate.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #46 on: July 07, 2015, 06:24:35 AM »

Why not just include all 16 candidates and expand the debate to 4 hours, with only a 5 minute break each hour for commercials in between ?

That would mean slightly more than 10 minutes talking time for each candidate.

Because nobody besides us, and probably not most of us, would watch a four hour debate. Plus, candidates would probably have to use the bathroom. Some of the older ones probably wouldn't be able to stand for four hours anyway.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #47 on: July 07, 2015, 06:26:49 AM »

Why not just include all 16 candidates and expand the debate to 4 hours, with only a 5 minute break each hour for commercials in between ?

That would mean slightly more than 10 minutes talking time for each candidate.

Because nobody besides us, and probably not most of us, would watch a four hour debate. Plus, candidates would probably have to use the bathroom. Some of the older ones probably wouldn't be able to stand for four hours anyway.

Rick Perry would probably need a shot of his meds halfway through the debate.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #48 on: July 07, 2015, 06:27:28 AM »

Why not just include all 16 candidates and expand the debate to 4 hours, with only a 5 minute break each hour for commercials in between ?

That would mean slightly more than 10 minutes talking time for each candidate.

Because nobody besides us, and probably not most of us, would watch a four hour debate. Plus, candidates would probably have to use the bathroom. Some of the older ones probably wouldn't be able to stand for four hours anyway.

A) Yes, that's a fair point.
B) They can go to the bathroom during the 5-10 minute commercial breaks each hour.
C) Is there a requirement that the candidates need to stand ? What about a sitting debate ?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #49 on: July 07, 2015, 06:48:39 AM »

I doubt it'll happen, but I would have liked for there to be a cross-party debate, so we could reenact this moment with the 2016 candidates:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDTQyTffl8A
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