Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

[Lief 🗽]

I doubt it'll happen, but I would have liked for there to be a cross-party debate, so we could reenact this moment with the 2016 candidates:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDTQyTffl8A

1:23, Obama whispers into Mitt's ear: "I won't get the chance to do it this year, but four years from now I'm gonna give you a thrashing you'll never forget."

[Mr. Morden]

Questions being asked about whether candidates who haven't submitted their financial disclosure forms will be invited to the debate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party-debate.html?_r=0

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[Likely Voter]

Questions being asked about whether candidates who haven't submitted their financial disclosure forms will be invited to the debate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party-debate.html?_r=0

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Yeah I brought this issue up in the Mexico Trump thread. Bloomberg and WaPo are saying the statement from FOX means you need to have your financials in. From Bloomberg....

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Not sure what this will mean for Walker and Kasich, but both will be within their 30 day window to file their financials at the time of the debate

[Senator Cris]

The list will be determined according to the RCP average?

[Bull Moose Base]

Questions being asked about whether candidates who haven't submitted their financial disclosure forms will be invited to the debate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party-debate.html?_r=0

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Yeah I brought this issue up in the Mexico Trump thread. Bloomberg and WaPo are saying the statement from FOX means you need to have your financials in. From Bloomberg....

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not sure what this will mean for Walker and Kasich, but both will be within their 30 day window to file their financials at the time of the debate

So the debate may include Trump, Carson and Jindal but not Bush?

[Likely Voter]

The list will be determined according to the RCP average?

Not exactly. FOX calls for an average of the last 5 polls but havent detailed which polls they will include but it is likely it wont include non live phone polls. RCP avg covers polls for the last month (so currently they are only averaging 4 polls). RCP has also included non live phone polls like PPP (although the latest PPP wasn't, possibly because that was before they expanded to include more than 9).

So the debate may include Trump, Carson and Jindal but not Bush?

It is likely Bush will get his financials in before the debate deadline. Trump is saying he will submit his financials next week, we will see.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new Monmouth poll

Trump jumps up 2 places and Huck drops 2. Santorum is getting close to kicking someone out of the top 10.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Bush   16.2
2   Walker   10.0
3   Rubio   8.8
4   Carson   8.4
5   Trump   8.2 ↑
6   Paul   8.0
7   Huckabee   7.8 ↓
8   Cruz   5.6
9   Christie   3.4
10   Perry   3.0

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========
      
11   Santorum   2.6
12   Kasich*   2.0
13   Fiorina   1.8 ↓
14   Jindal   1.2 ↑
15   Graham   0.8 ↓

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
16   Pataki   0.4
17   Gilmore*   0.0



* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Likely Voter]

I did another calculation based on just the 3 post Trump announcement polls (CNN, FOX, Monmouth)  and the results are different. Trump is in second, Santorum is in the top 10 and Christie is out!. Graham also drops out of the Forum. A lot of this is due to an NBC poll which has some outlier results. Once that washes out of the mix I think this may become the new normal.

1   Bush   16.3
2   Trump   12.0
3   Carson   7.7
4   Walker   7.3
5   Paul   7.3
6   Huckabee   7.0
7   Rubio   6.7
8   Cruz   5.3
9   Santorum   3.0
10   Perry   2.7
      
11   Christie   2.3
12   Kasich   2.0
13   Jindal   2.0
14   Fiorina   1.7
      
15   Graham   0.7
16   Pataki   0.3
17   Gilmore   0.0

[Mr. Morden]

I really have to wonder how long these candidates who don't make it into either of the first two debates (and are relegated to the "kiddie" table forums instead) are going to bother continuing their campaigns.  I guess they could still figure that they can try to break out in either IA or NH even without getting any national media coverage?

[Likely Voter]

I would imagine if you dont get into the second debate (CNN in September) your campaign is essentially finished. But in the world of super PACs and sugar daddies we could see a zombie campaign limp along. Fiorina may even self-finance in hopes to stay in it until NH, seeing it as an investment in her future (on Fox or in GOP administration)

BTW there is an interesting wrinkle on the CNN debate, their criteria averages all the live phone polls between July 16 and September 10. So all the pols released in the run up to the Fox debate will be included. So even if one of the kiddie table candidates 'pops' in the FOX forum, they will be weighed down by at least a few pre FOX Forum polls.

[Publius]

I'm eager to see what Christie does to try and worm into the first debate (or safely ensconce himself in it, depending on the numbers).

[Vega]

I didn't actually expect Fox to stick with the rules of excluding certain candidates. Shame, really.

I guess if one of (or several) the major candidates would refuse to participate in the debate unless everyone was included, they would have to allow it. I doubt any candidate would do that, however.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I didn't actually expect Fox to stick with the rules of excluding certain candidates. Shame, really.

I guess if one of (or several) the major candidates would refuse to participate in the debate unless everyone was included, they would have to allow it. I doubt any candidate would do that, however.

With all 17 likely candidates on stage though, you'd have to go for 3.5 hours. (3.5 hours works out to 12.3529 minutes per candidate, roughly the same as the planned 2 hour 10 candidate debate, which works out to 12 minutes exactly per candidate) And no one except political junkies would watch a 3.5 hour
debate.

[Senator Cris]

Have you included the Ipsos poll (Bush and Trump tied, Christie at 10) in your average?

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new USA Today poll (Ipsos poll is Internet and unlikely to be used by FOX)

Trump continues his climb. Christie and Perry are at risk of losing their spots to Santorum.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Bush   17.0
2   Trump   10.8 ↑
3   Walker   9.4 ↓
4   Rubio   7.8
5   Carson   7.6
6   Huckabee   6.8 ↑
7   Paul   6.6 ↓
8   Cruz   5.2
9   Christie   2.8
10   Perry   2.8

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Santorum   2.0
12   Kasich*   1.6
13   Fiorina   1.6
14   Jindal   1.4
15   Graham   0.6

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
16   Pataki   0.2
17   Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

[Mr. Morden]

And I still think Kasich has a shot at pulling out a last minute move into the top 10.  Everything depends on the media coverage he gets when he announces his candidacy next week.  There are some party elites who really have to make a hard decision about whether they see him as being the most electable candidate in the field.  If so, then next week would be a good time for some high profile endorsements.

[Kingpoleon]

And I still think Kasich has a shot at pulling out a last minute move into the top 10.  Everything depends on the media coverage he gets when he announces his candidacy next week.  There are some party elites who really have to make a hard decision about whether they see him as being the most electable candidate in the field.  If so, then next week would be a good time for some high profile endorsements..

"Gentlemen, with us today is a man who has done it all. He's worked Ralph Nader - he's worked with Grover Norquist. He's balanced the federal budget - he's cut taxes. He went from a 30% approval rating to a 64% re-election in the most important swing state in the country in three years. He's set up everyone from John Sununu to Bob Walker in his campaign staff and will be the last serious candidate to announce, this getting the most coverage and announcement spike.

"Obviously, he has no chance at the nomination. Go up to him and say, 'You can't do it.' The doubters always told him it in the past."

[Likely Voter]

The Cruz campaign has sent out a memo challenging Fox to clarify its standards and makes some recommendations on what polls should be considered:
 - phone only polls (not specific on live or automated)
- polls should have 1000 respondents (I assume this means all and not just Republicans because no polls has that many of one party)
- no polls with weekends included.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/ted-cruz-challenges-fox-debate-standards-120169.html

I suspect that the Cruz campaign is concerned that he tends to do poorly in the ubiquitous (online) YouGov polls, but I doubt Fox would ever consider including those anyway. Not sure about the weekend thing. But it is interesting how Fox continues to refuse to explain its methodology. We dont know what polls they will use (specific pollsters or even accepted methodologies) or if they will use all adult republicans or RV republican numbers (this distinction could easily make the difference between who is 10th and who is 11th). We also don't know if they would allow multiple polls from the same pollster, but that likely wont be an issue by the time of the debate.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

UPDATED with new USA Today poll (Ipsos poll is Internet and unlikely to be used by FOX)

Trump continues his climb. Christie and Perry are at risk of losing their spots to Santorum.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Yet another Bush   17.0
2   Attention Whore   10.8 ↑
3   No College   9.4 ↓
4   Polo   7.8
5   Dr. Uncle Tom   7.6
6   Bassist   6.8 ↑
7   Ayn   6.6 ↓
8   Canadian   5.2
9   Corrupt Chubby   2.8
10   Another Texan   2.8

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Saintly Rick   2.0
12   Who?*   1.6
13   Token Female   1.6
14   Uncle Raul   1.4
15   Closet Case   0.6

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
16   Boring   0.2
17   Not Running?*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Fixed the names.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

And I still think Kasich has a shot at pulling out a last minute move into the top 10.  Everything depends on the media coverage he gets when he announces his candidacy next week.  There are some party elites who really have to make a hard decision about whether they see him as being the most electable candidate in the field.  If so, then next week would be a good time for some high profile endorsements..

"Gentlemen, with us today is a man who has done it all. He's worked Ralph Nader - he's worked with Grover Norquist. He's balanced the federal budget - he's cut taxes. He went from a 30% approval rating to a 64% re-election in the most important swing state in the country in three years. He's set up everyone from John Sununu to Bob Walker in his campaign staff and will be the last serious candidate to announce, this getting the most coverage and announcement spike.

"Obviously, he has no chance at the nomination. Go up to him and say, 'You can't do it.' The doubters always told him it in the past."

And got paid a $432,000 bonus at the Lehman Brothers brothers in 2008. Great job, Kasich!

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new FOX poll

Santorum has broken into the top 10, sending Perry down to the minor league. This is the first time in the 6 weeks of tracking this that someone has broken into the top 10.


=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

 1    Bush   15.0
 2    Trump   14.2
 3    Walker   9.0
 4    Paul   7.0 ↑
 5    Carson   6.8
 6    Rubio   6.6 ↓
 7    Huckabee   5.2
 8    Cruz   5.2
 9    Christie   2.6
 10    Santorum   2.4 ↑

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========
 
11    Perry   2.0  ↓
 12    Kasich*   1.8
 13    Fiorina   1.4
 14    Jindal   1.4
 15    Graham   0.6  ↓

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
 16    Pataki   0.4
 17    Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank


EDIT: fixed a couple minor things. Consistent use of RV numbers and using 1% for Monmouth "<1%" instead of 0%. Rankings stay the same but Graham now back into 'Forum'

[okierepublican]

UPDATED with new FOX poll

Santorum has broken into the top 10, sending Perry down to the minor league. This is the first time in the 6 weeks of tracking this that someone has broken into the top 10.

Graham has lost enough support to even qualify for the Fox 'forum'. If it were held now it would only have four people, assuming Fox sticks to its requirement of needing to average 1% in the last five polls and they use traditional rounding.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

 1    Bush   15.4
 2    Trump   14.2
 3    Walker   9.0
 4    Paul   6.8 ↑
 5    Carson   6.6
 6    Rubio   6.4 ↓
 7    Huckabee   5.8
 8    Cruz   5.2
 9    Christie   2.6
 10    Santorum   2.4 ↑

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========
 
11    Perry   2.0  ↓
 12    Kasich*   1.8
 13    Fiorina   1.4
 14    Jindal   1.4

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
 15    Graham   0.4  ↓
 16    Pataki   0.2
 17    Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Fox should really let all the ones that make top 10 to go to the forum.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

UPDATED with new FOX poll

Santorum has broken into the top 10, sending Perry down to the minor league. This is the first time in the 6 weeks of tracking this that someone has broken into the top 10.

Graham has lost enough support to even qualify for the Fox 'forum'. If it were held now it would only have four people, assuming Fox sticks to its requirement of needing to average 1% in the last five polls and they use traditional rounding.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

 1    Bush   15.4
 2    Trump   14.2
 3    Walker   9.0
 4    Paul   6.8 ↑
 5    Carson   6.6
 6    Rubio   6.4 ↓
 7    Huckabee   5.8
 8    Cruz   5.2
 9    Christie   2.6
 10    Santorum   2.4 ↑

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========
 
11    Perry   2.0  ↓
 12    Kasich*   1.8
 13    Fiorina   1.4
 14    Jindal   1.4

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
 15    Graham   0.4  ↓
 16    Pataki   0.2
 17    Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Dammit Perry deserves the debate more than Santorum

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

UPDATED with new FOX poll

Santorum has broken into the top 10, sending Perry down to the minor league. This is the first time in the 6 weeks of tracking this that someone has broken into the top 10.

Graham has lost enough support to even qualify for the Fox 'forum'. If it were held now it would only have four people, assuming Fox sticks to its requirement of needing to average 1% in the last five polls and they use traditional rounding.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

 1    Bush   15.4
 2    Trump   14.2
 3    Walker   9.0
 4    Paul   6.8 ↑
 5    Carson   6.6
 6    Rubio   6.4 ↓
 7    Huckabee   5.8
 8    Cruz   5.2
 9    Christie   2.6
 10    Santorum   2.4 ↑

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========
 
11    Perry   2.0  ↓
 12    Kasich*   1.8
 13    Fiorina   1.4
 14    Jindal   1.4

=======NO APPEARANCE=========
      
 15    Graham   0.4  ↓
 16    Pataki   0.2
 17    Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Dammit Perry deserves the debate more than Santorum

Not according to Donald Trump.

[Slander and/or Libel]

If they wanted to stick to the threshold of 10, Fox really ought to have commissioned its own series of polls, ranking candidates and looking at their popularity relative to other candidates. If they polled a sampling of head to head matchups, they'd have a MUCH better understanding of who deserves to be in the debate and who doesn't.

My guess for who'd make it if the criteria was that they were leading in the most head-to-head matchups against the other candidates (not necessarily in this order):

1    Bush
2    Walker
3    Paul
4    Carson
5    Rubio
6    Huckabee
7    Cruz
8    Christie
9    Perry
10  Kasich