Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)
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  Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)
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Author Topic: Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)  (Read 21404 times)
Torie
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« Reply #75 on: July 17, 2015, 08:04:24 AM »

If they wanted to stick to the threshold of 10, Fox really ought to have commissioned its own series of polls, ranking candidates and looking at their popularity relative to other candidates. If they polled a sampling of head to head matchups, they'd have a MUCH better understanding of who deserves to be in the debate and who doesn't.

My guess for who'd make it if the criteria was that they were leading in the most head-to-head matchups against the other candidates (not necessarily in this order):

1    Bush
2    Walker
3    Paul
4    Carson
5    Rubio
6    Huckabee
7    Cruz
8    Christie
9    Perry
10  Kasich

So a candidate that has 20% of the Pubs absolutely adoring him, and 40% absolutely hating him, would not be in the debate?  It seems that you are focusing on the like to dislike ratio or something. While it might be a good proxy as to whom might get the nomination, it's tough to justify excluding someone from the debate who has a significant chunk of support. Perhaps the debate venue might change the mind of some of the candidate's detractors. Yes, I know, that is not going to happen with Trump, but dealing with tough cases like Trump (so that he is excluded), can lead to bad/unfair rules as it were overall - and cause a lot of resentment among some Pub primary voters. 
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« Reply #76 on: July 17, 2015, 08:06:09 AM »

If they wanted to stick to the threshold of 10, Fox really ought to have commissioned its own series of polls, ranking candidates and looking at their popularity relative to other candidates. If they polled a sampling of head to head matchups, they'd have a MUCH better understanding of who deserves to be in the debate and who doesn't.

My guess for who'd make it if the criteria was that they were leading in the most head-to-head matchups against the other candidates (not necessarily in this order):

1    Bush
2    Walker
3    Paul
4    Carson
5    Rubio
6    Huckabee
7    Cruz
8    Christie
9    Perry
10  Kasich

So a candidate that has 20% of the Pubs absolutely adoring him, and 40% absolutely hating him, would not be in the debate?  It seems that you are focusing on the like to dislike ratio or something. While it might be a good proxy as to whom might get the nomination, it's tough to justify excluding someone from the debate who has a significant chunk of support. Perhaps the debate venue might change the mind of some of the candidate's detractors. Yes, I know, that is not going to happen with Trump, but dealing with tough cases like Trump (so that he is excluded), can lead to bad/unfair rules as it were overall - and cause a lot of resentment among some Pub primary voters. 

I should have said at the top that I think limiting it to 10 candidates is a stupid, arbitrary rule. If there's 17 candidates, find a way to get 17 candidates on a stage. But if they're looking for the most substance, and were determined to stick to 10 candidates, my suggestions was that they pass it through a filter where they might recognize which candidates actually have a chance of winning. That is, if Trump dropped out of the race, who would his support filter down to? If Bush dropped out, who would his go to? Etc.
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #77 on: July 17, 2015, 05:32:39 PM »

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #78 on: July 17, 2015, 05:58:31 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2015, 07:23:03 PM by Likely Voter »

The 538 analysis is almost exactly the same as mine with a tiny difference for a couple of the candidates (no change in rankings). This small dif is due to them using adult republican leaner numbers instead of the Republican RV numbers in the latest CNN poll (the only other polls that provides both numbers are from ABC/WaPo).

As 538 notes, Fox has not clarified how they will calculate it so they are guessing just like I am. RCP uses the adult numbers when there is a choice, HuffPollster uses RV. I think RV is more likely because it gives more apples to apples comparison vs other pollsters.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
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« Reply #79 on: July 17, 2015, 06:52:56 PM »

They'll round up just so they can include Kasich
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #80 on: July 17, 2015, 07:15:19 PM »
« Edited: July 17, 2015, 07:25:08 PM by Likely Voter »

The fact that FOX wont clarify their formula suggests they may want to keep the rounding option open. But Fox selected 10 for a reason, they don't want to have to extend the group to 11 or 12 so I think they wont 'round' for anyone. If the rankings change and rounding made the difference for including Kasich or Fiorina they just might do it, but would they do it for Graham, Perry, Santorum, Jindal, Pataki, Christie or Gilmore?  

They have set aside 2 hours for the 'Forum' for people who dont make it into the main debate. If they extend the debate to 12 people, the Forum might only have 2-4 people in it. In that case, you may be better off in the forum for the amount of airtime you will get.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #81 on: July 20, 2015, 06:37:01 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2015, 06:42:34 PM by Likely Voter »

UPDATED with new ABC Poll

Trump increases lead and Perry returns to the top 10, sending Santorum back down to the Forum.

Graham drops back out of the Forum and Fiorina is also in danger of not meeting the 1% threshold.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========
1   Trump   16.8
2   Bush   14.4
3   Walker   9.8
4   Paul   6.4
5   Rubio   6.4 ↑
6   Carson   6.0 ↓
7   Huckabee   5.6
8   Cruz   5.2
9   Christie   2.8
10   Perry   2.4 ↑

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Santorum   2.0 ↓  **
12   Kasich*   1.8   **
13   Jindal   1.4 ↑
14   Fiorina   0.8 ↓

=======NO APPEARANCE=========

15   Graham   0.4 ↓
16   Pataki   0.4
17   Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Treat Monmouth "<1%" as 1% (as opposed to 0%)
- Allow multiple polls from same pollster
- Round to 1 decimal
- 1% threshold for 'Forum' will include rounding up to nearest whole number

Currently averaging latest polls from ABC, FOX, USA Today, Monmouth, CNN


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Likely Voter
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« Reply #82 on: July 20, 2015, 07:07:10 PM »

Fox has said they are sticking to their plan which is 10 people. THey will extend it if there is a tie for 10th.

CNN has said that they are also using 10 as a cutoff but that if there are only 14 candidates left by the time of their debate in September they may cut it down to 8. Instead of a 'forum' they are having a second debate with the lower tier.
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King
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« Reply #83 on: July 20, 2015, 07:51:18 PM »

I think Kasich will be able to get in on an announcement bump. The media definitely wants him in and is helping him blitz.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #84 on: July 21, 2015, 07:16:42 PM »

The NYT has done their own estimate and comes up with the same exact numbers as I did.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/21/upshot/election-2015-the-first-gop-debate-and-the-role-of-chance.html

The article also examines how the Fox criteria essentially means that some will make the stage by luck, noting:
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #85 on: July 22, 2015, 06:05:32 PM »

Looks like Kasich might be in after all. All he needs to do is lead Perry by 1 in the next poll and he'll get the 10th spot.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #86 on: July 24, 2015, 01:25:43 PM »

Looks like Kasich might be in after all. All he needs to do is lead Perry by 1 in the next poll and he'll get the 10th spot.

At this point, I'm guessing we'll see 2-3 new polls before the deadline and the last 2-3 polls we've seen (excluding PPP probably) will be used for the average. Whether it's 2 or 3 makes a big difference for Christie who, in the 3rd oldest poll (Suffolk), had a 2 point lead over Kasich, Perry, Santorum and Fiorina.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

2 most recent:
Christie's total is 6
Perry 5
Kasich 4
Santorum 3

3 most recent:
Christie 9
Perry 6
Kasich 5
Santorum 4
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #87 on: July 24, 2015, 01:36:27 PM »

I still think we will see 5 entirely new polls before the debate. Monmouith has confirmed they will do one and yesterday Chuck Todd said NBC will have a new one out in a couple weeks. CNN tends to poll at the end of the month so that is 3. I suspect that FOX would want their own poll to be one of the five polls so that would be 4. So you just need one more. Quinnipiac is due for a poll, they havent done one since May and McClatchy/Marist hasnt since March. And then there are other live phone pollsters that havent done any this cycle including CBS/NYT and Pew.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #88 on: July 24, 2015, 01:50:36 PM »

I still think we will see 5 entirely new polls before the debate. Monmouith has confirmed they will do one and yesterday Chuck Todd said NBC will have a new one out in a couple weeks. CNN tends to poll at the end of the month so that is 3. I suspect that FOX would want their own poll to be one of the five polls so that would be 4. So you just need one more. Quinnipiac is due for a poll, they havent done one since May and McClatchy/Marist hasnt since March. And then there are other live phone pollsters that havent done any this cycle including CBS/NYT and Pew.

Maybe. The window is only 11 more days. If there are 5 more or even just 4, obviously the last 2 spots are wide open and no Christie seems pretty realistic. (Obviously all 10 spots are wide open if there are 5 new polls, but hard to imagine the top 8's #s changing enough to knock them out.)
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #89 on: July 24, 2015, 05:36:15 PM »

I still think we will see 5 entirely new polls before the debate. Monmouith has confirmed they will do one and yesterday Chuck Todd said NBC will have a new one out in a couple weeks. CNN tends to poll at the end of the month so that is 3. I suspect that FOX would want their own poll to be one of the five polls so that would be 4. So you just need one more. Quinnipiac is due for a poll, they havent done one since May and McClatchy/Marist hasnt since March. And then there are other live phone pollsters that havent done any this cycle including CBS/NYT and Pew.

Where did you see that Monmouth is doing another poll?
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« Reply #90 on: July 24, 2015, 05:41:11 PM »

I still think we will see 5 entirely new polls before the debate. Monmouith has confirmed they will do one and yesterday Chuck Todd said NBC will have a new one out in a couple weeks. CNN tends to poll at the end of the month so that is 3. I suspect that FOX would want their own poll to be one of the five polls so that would be 4. So you just need one more. Quinnipiac is due for a poll, they havent done one since May and McClatchy/Marist hasnt since March. And then there are other live phone pollsters that havent done any this cycle including CBS/NYT and Pew.

I wouldn't be shocked if 5 or more polls are released on the deadline day.
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« Reply #91 on: July 24, 2015, 05:44:35 PM »

From July 7 in Politico
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Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/upcoming-polls-to-lock-in-gop-debate-field-119793.html#ixzz3gqqtVg00

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #92 on: July 26, 2015, 10:51:01 AM »

If we assume that Monmouth will have another poll out, and that Fox won't count PPP, the 5 most recent polls could be:

Unknown Monmouth
Unknown Quinnipiac
CNN/ORC
ABC/WashPost
FOX

If there are more, it could be that only CNN and ABC are included in the pre-debate average (or even just CNN), which is good news for Kasich and bad news for Perry as newer polls are showing Kasich ahead. Counting just CNN, ABC, and FOX so far, Kasich and Perry are tied for the 10th spot.

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« Reply #93 on: July 26, 2015, 11:12:31 AM »

If we assume that Monmouth will have another poll out, and that Fox won't count PPP, the 5 most recent polls could be:

Unknown Monmouth
Unknown Quinnipiac
CNN/ORC
ABC/WashPost
FOX

If there are more, it could be that only CNN and ABC are included in the pre-debate average (or even just CNN), which is good news for Kasich and bad news for Perry as newer polls are showing Kasich ahead. Counting just CNN, ABC, and FOX so far, Kasich and Perry are tied for the 10th spot.



Huge bummer for comedy fans and Jeb Bush if Kasich edges out Perry.
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« Reply #94 on: July 26, 2015, 11:53:53 AM »

I don't know if this is just a false hope by Trump (probably is) or if this is genuine, but he said on an interview that aired this weekend that he is considering skipping the first debate because he knows everybody will be gunning for him.  Is it true that he might skip the debate or is that just empty rhetoric and wishful thinking?
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« Reply #95 on: July 26, 2015, 12:35:44 PM »

Prediction for the Monmouth poll (assuming the June/July change is similar to that of the CNN and Fox polls:

Trump 19%
Bush 12%
Walker 12%
Cruz 11%
Rubio 5%
Paul 5%
Huckabee 4%
Christie 3%
Carson 2%
Kasich 2%
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« Reply #96 on: July 26, 2015, 12:47:38 PM »

If we assume that Monmouth will have another poll out, and that Fox won't count PPP, the 5 most recent polls could be:

Unknown Monmouth
Unknown Quinnipiac
CNN/ORC
ABC/WashPost
FOX

If there are more, it could be that only CNN and ABC are included in the pre-debate average (or even just CNN), which is good news for Kasich and bad news for Perry as newer polls are showing Kasich ahead. Counting just CNN, ABC, and FOX so far, Kasich and Perry are tied for the 10th spot.



The new CNN poll has a good chance of being in the final 5. I suspect others will be new polls from Monmouth, NBC, Fox and Quinni. But we could see some polls from others who havent polled in a while or at all this cycle and maybe ABC or USA Today may want to get into the action. Bottom line is I doubt the last FOX and ABC polls will be in the final 5
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #97 on: July 26, 2015, 01:02:25 PM »

UPDATED with new CNN Poll

Trump continues to increase his lead. Top 10 stays the same. Perry barely holding on to the last spot in the main debate with Kasich just 0.2 behind.

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump   18.0
2   Bush   14.0
3   Walker   10.6
4   Rubio   6.2
5   Paul   6.0 ↑
6   Cruz   6.0 ↑
7   Huckabee   5.6
8   Carson   5.2 ↓
9   Christie   3.0
10   Perry   2.2

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Kasich   2.0 ↑  **
12   Santorum   1.6 ↓  **
13   Jindal   1.4
14   Fiorina   0.8
15   Pataki   0.6 ↑

=======NO APPEARANCE=========

16   Graham   0.4
17   Gilmore*   0.0

* undeclared candidate
** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Treat Monmouth "<1%" as 1% (as opposed to 0%)
- Allow multiple polls from same pollster
- Round to 1 decimal
- 1% threshold for 'Forum' will include rounding up to nearest whole number

Currently averaging latest polls from CNN, ABC, FOX, USA Today, Monmouth


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Likely Voter
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« Reply #98 on: July 26, 2015, 01:07:13 PM »

RE: RV v Adults

CNN and ABC polls are the only ones who have results for adult republican leaners and RV Republicans. And so the results are slightly different. In the past the RCP avg used the adult number but I note that they are now using the RV number (just like HuffPollster). I have also always used the RV number. Usually it doesnt make much of a difference in the rankings but right now it does. If FOX uses the adult number then currently there is a tie for 10th.

Rankings using 'adults' (not RV)
1   Trump   18.0
2   Bush   14.2
3   Walker   10.2
4   Rubio   6.6
5   Cruz   6.0
6   Paul   6.0
7   Huckabee   5.4
8   Carson   5.2
9   Christie   3.2
10   Kasich   2.0
11   Perry   2.0
12   Santorum   1.6
13   Jindal   1.4
14   Fiorina   1.0
15   Pataki   0.8
16   Graham   0.4
17   Gilmore   0.0

So if the debate were being held today and FOX wanted Kasich into the debate they could use the adult number. They could also round up to the nearest whole number but that would also put Santorum in, giving the main debate 12 and the forum only 3 (Graham doesn't meet 1% threshold).
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #99 on: July 26, 2015, 01:11:05 PM »

I don't know if this is just a false hope by Trump (probably is) or if this is genuine, but he said on an interview that aired this weekend that he is considering skipping the first debate because he knows everybody will be gunning for him.  Is it true that he might skip the debate or is that just empty rhetoric and wishful thinking?

He's a total wimp if that's the case. He's the guy who likes to cast himself as "tough" more than anything, so I highly doubt it.
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