Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

[Likely Voter]

NBC tends to release their polls in time for MTP on Sundays. Then I would bet Monmouth on Monday and Fox on Tuesday. 

And you never know, we could get one out of left field, like CBS/NYT, Marist or Pew. Although if I were a pollster that hadn't done a poll in a while I would do one right after the debate. The other more frequent pollsters will have have just done done so you could be the first post-debate poll and get more attention.

[Mr. Morden]

NBC tends to release their polls in time for MTP on Sundays. Then I would bet Monmouth on Monday and Fox on Tuesday. 

And I guess the initial broadcast of Meet the Press is 9-10am on Sunday morning (so just over 8 hours from now)?

I guess we'll find out then if they have a new poll to show us.  From MTP's FB page, looks like both Carson and Trump will be interviewed this week, so presumably there will be some talk of polls.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Chuck Todd will also talk to both DNC and RNC chairs, so polling and the debates will surely come up:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/sunday-mtp-debate-scramble-n401926

EDIT: Actually, they explicitly say that they will give the new NBC/WSJ poll numbers:

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[Mr. Morden]

Marist has suspended its primary poll to avoid being part of the debate criteria:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article29787529.html

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So we really are just looking at NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, and Fox at this point.  Meet the Press starts in an hour, and they'll supposedly give us the NBC/WSJ poll at that time.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Marist has suspended its primary poll to avoid being part of the debate criteria:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article29787529.html

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So we really are just looking at NBC/WSJ, Monmouth, and Fox at this point.  Meet the Press starts in an hour, and they'll supposedly give us the NBC/WSJ poll at that time.

NBC/WSJ poll is out, Perry and Kasich tied at 3% http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/trump-surges-new-nbc-news-wsj-poll-n402036?cid=sm_fb&hootPostID=a270ede53549123d945d5da0d2823424

[Senator Cris]

As of now, with 2 polls left:

Kasich 4%
Christie 3.33%
Perry 2.67%

[Tender Branson]

More on the Marist decision not to release their poll ahead of the debate:

TOP 10 REASONS WHY POLLS SHOULD NOT BE USED TO DETERMINE ELIGIBILITY FOR DEBATES (OR WHERE’S DAVID LETTERMAN WHEN YOU NEED HIM?)

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...

OK, but how else to pick the 10 candidates for the debate stage ?

[Mr. Morden]

Averaging CNN, Quinnipiac, and NBC/WSJ:

Trump 21.7%
Bush 13%
Walker 12.7%
Cruz 7%
Carson 6.7%
Paul 6%
Huckabee 5.7%
Rubio 5.7%
Kasich 4%
Christie 3.3%
-------
Perry 2.7%
Jindal 1.7%

Christie and Kasich in, Perry out.  Two polls to go, or at least that's what we're thinking.  Perry needs to lead Christie by an average of 1% or more in the final two polls in order to tie Christie for 10th place.  Unless they're just going to use rounding to let Perry in anyway, and have 11 people in the debate.

[Yelnoc]

More on the Marist decision not to release their poll ahead of the debate:

TOP 10 REASONS WHY POLLS SHOULD NOT BE USED TO DETERMINE ELIGIBILITY FOR DEBATES (OR WHERE’S DAVID LETTERMAN WHEN YOU NEED HIM?)

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...

OK, but how else to pick the 10 candidates for the debate stage ?

Easy, have two debates with 8 and 9 candidates, the participants determined by sortition.

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED with new NBC Poll

AVERAGE OF LAST FIVE POLLS
NBC, Quinnipiac, CNN, ABC, FOX

Trump again increases. Walker jumps into 2nd, Carson and Paul tied for 4th podium spot. Kasich and Christie tied for last two spots.  


=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump    19.8
2   Walker    13.2 ↑
3   Bush    13.0
4   Carson    6.4 ↑
5   Paul    6.4
6   Rubio    6.2 ↓
7   Cruz    5.8
8   Huckabee    5.8 ↓
9   Kasich    3.2
10   Christie    3.2

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry    2.6 **
12   Jindal    1.4
13   Santorum    1.4
14   Fiorina    0.6
15   Pataki   0.6
16   Graham    0.4
17   Gilmore   0.0


AVERAGE OF PROBABLE FINAL POLLS
(Showing just last 3 polls, assuming new Monmouth and Fox polls coming this week)
NBC, Quinnipiac, CNN

Same top 10 but note that Bush is second and Cruz is 4th. The races for 2nd and 4th are close and important for key podium positions.  

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump    19.0
2   Bush    13.0
3   Walker    12.7
4   Cruz    7.0
5   Carson    6.7
6   Paul    6.0
7   Rubio    5.7
8   Huckabee    5.7
9   Kasich    4.0
10   Christie    3.3

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry    2.7 **
12   Jindal    1.7
13   Santorum    1.3
14   Fiorina    0.7
15   Pataki   0.7
16   Graham    0.7
17   Gilmore   0.0

** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Round to 1 decimal

[Mr. Morden]

Averaging NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac, CNN, and now Monmouth, we have:

Kasich 3.75%
Christie 3.5%
Perry 2.5%

Christie and Kasich will make it, and Perry will be left out...unless Perry beats either of the other two by at least five points in the Fox poll, or they get creative with rounding and say that he's "tied for 10th place".

The only thing that can save him at this point is if there's another poll out there that we're not aware of.

[Mr. Morden]

Fox will probably be happy if there's a full 1.0% difference between 10th and 11th place.  If they tried to exclude someone based on an 0.3% difference or something, they'd get a lot more criticism.

[SteveRogers]

Do we know when the official pronouncement from Fox as to who is in is supposed to come?

[Tender Branson]

2 more polls have been confirmed:

* FOX
* Bloomberg/Selzer

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[Bull Moose Base]

Ironic that the Monmouth helped Christie separate from Perry days after Christie was accusing them of conspiring to sink him.

Assuming those are the only 2 left, Perry would need to lead Christie by 3 total in those 2 to tie him. Not impossible.

[Mr. Morden]

Assuming those are the only 2 left, Perry would need to lead Christie by 3 total in those 2 to tie him. Not impossible.

Yeah, I didn't know about the Selzer poll until reading Tender's post.  So Perry still has a chance…

[Likely Voter]

UPDATED/REPOSTED with new MonmouthPoll and news that 2 more polls are coming out

AVERAGE OF LAST FIVE POLLS
Monmouth, NBC, Quinnipiac, CNN, ABC

Trump lead increases yet again. Bush jumps back into second vs. Walker. Huckabee jumps past Rubio and Paul and is tied for fourth with Carson and Cruz (not sure how FOX would determine podium positions in that case). Kasich and Christie remain tied for last spot at 3.2%. Perry would tie with Christie and Kasich at 3% (and therefore get into the debate) if Fox rounded to whole numbers.


=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump    21.4
2   Bush    12.6 ↑
3   Walker    12.4 ↓
4   Carson    6.2
5   Cruz    6.2
6   Huckabee    6.2 ↑
7   Paul    5.6 ↓
8   Rubio    5.6 ↓
9   Christie    3.4
10   Kasich    3.4

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry    2.8 **
12   Jindal    1.6
13   Santorum    1.2
14   Fiorina    0.8
15   Graham    0.6 ↑
16   Pataki   0.6
17   Girlmore   0.0


AVERAGE OF PROBABLE FINAL POLLS
(Showing just last 3 polls. Politico reports new Fox and Bloomberg coming out tomorrow.)
Monmouth, NBC, Quinnipiac

Same top 10 but Walker has 1% lead over Bush for key 2nd place podium and Carson has small lead over Cruz for 4th place. Gap between Christie and Perry is 1% so even rounding to whole percent will not get Perry into the top 10.  

=======MAIN FOX DEBATE========

1   Trump    21.7
2   Walker    13.0 ↑
3   Bush    12.0 ↓
4   Carson    7.0 ↓
5   Cruz    6.7 ↓
6   Huckabee    6.0
7   Paul    5.3
8   Rubio    5.0
9   Kasich    3.7
10   Christie    3.3

=========FOX 'FORUM'==========

11   Perry    2.3
12   Jindal    1.3
13   Santorum    1.0
14   Fiorina    1.0
15   Graham    0.7
16   Pataki   0.3
17   Girlmore   0.0


** Would attend debate if FOX rounds to nearest whole number
↑↓ up/down change of rank

Assumptions:
- Live phone polls only
- RV numbers when there is option
- Round to 1 decimal
- Treat Monmouth "<1%" as 0%

[The Other Castro]

2 more polls have been confirmed:

* FOX
* Bloomberg/Selzer

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[Likely Voter]

The things to watch for the Bloomberg and Fox polls are:
- Can Bush supplant Walker for second place
- Can Cruz (or maybe even Huckabee) supplant Carson for 4th place
- Can Perry supplant (or tie) Christie for 10th place (made much easier if Fox chooses to round to whole numbers)

Those podium positions (especially the top 4) are important both for the visual of being in the center and also likely to determine speaking time

[ElectionsGuy]

Rubio and Paul have seriously taken a hit in the past few weeks. I would've never guessed Rubio would be 8th!

[The Other Castro]

Do we know that Bloomberg will be included in the average? I wasn't aware that they conducted national primary polls, or if they conduct live phone polling.

[Likely Voter]

Rubio and Paul have seriously taken a hit in the past few weeks. I would've never guessed Rubio would be 8th!

Both have taken hits for sure. Look back in this thread. When I started tracking this 8 weeks ago Rubio was ranked 2nd and Paul was ranked 5th.

Do we know that Bloomberg will be included in the average? I wasn't aware that they conducted national primary polls, or if they conduct live phone polling.

No one knows what Fox will do but Bloomberg/Selzer does live phone and regularly polled in the 2012 cycle. They are also inlcuded in CNN's official list of approved pollsters for their September debate. Other CNN approved (live phone) pollsters on CNN's list that havent polled yet this cycle are: Pew, CBS/NYT, Gallup and Time.

McClatchy/Marist had polled some earlier this year and are 'CNN approved' but apparently they have decided they dont want to be part of this poll averaging game and announced they wont do any more primary polls.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Do we know that Bloomberg will be included in the average? I wasn't aware that they conducted national primary polls, or if they conduct live phone polling.

They're doing it with Selzer though, which is one of the best pollsters out there, so it probably gets included.

Anyone think Fox will adjust the results of their own poll to get Fiorina or Jindal in for race/gender reasons?

[The Other Castro]

Do we know that Bloomberg will be included in the average? I wasn't aware that they conducted national primary polls, or if they conduct live phone polling.

They're doing it with Selzer though, which is one of the best pollsters out there, so it probably gets included.

Anyone think Fox will adjust the results of their own poll to get Fiorina or Jindal in for race/gender reasons?

The result they would need in Fox's poll would be absurdly high, and would be met with great suspicion.

[Bull Moose Base]

Do we know that Bloomberg will be included in the average? I wasn't aware that they conducted national primary polls, or if they conduct live phone polling.

They're doing it with Selzer though, which is one of the best pollsters out there, so it probably gets included.

Anyone think Fox will adjust the results of their own poll to get Fiorina or Jindal in for race/gender reasons?

The result they would need in Fox's poll would be absurdly high, and would be met with great suspicion.

Also not on FOX's agenda. I do think they'd be partial to Perry being up there given his willingness to mix it up with Trump and chance for a juicy brain-freeze. But probably not at the cost of losing Christie. But maybe they'll round up to get them both in.