Absurd

[NHI]

2016

...

"For the United States of America, the best is yet to come."
-- President Barack Obama, Election Night 2012

"...And we are now ready to project Bernie Sanders, has won the New Hampshire Primary. 77 percent of the vote reported, Senator Sanders will defeat Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the First in the Nation Primary."

√ Projected Winner: Bernie Sanders 42%,  Defeats Hillary Clinton

New Hampshire Primary: Democrats (77% Reported)

√ Bernie Sanders: 42.2%

Hillary Clinton: 37.2%
Martin O'Malley: 10.9%
Jim Webb: 6.7%
Lincoln Chaffee: 1.6%
Other: 1.4%

"...We cannot report a winner on the Republican side. Now with 71 percent reported, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, continues to hold onto his narrow lead, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie running a strong second and Senator Marco Rubio finishing a distant third place..."

Too Close to Call: Paul 26%  Christie: 24%

New Hampshire Primary: Republicans (71% Reported)

Rand Paul: 26.7%

Chris Christie: 24.4%
Marco Rubio: 15.0%
Scott Walker: 9.7%
Jeb Bush: 6.2%
Rick Santorum: 6.0%
Lindsey Graham: 4.4%
George Pataki: 3.8%
John Kasich: 2.7%
Other: 1.3%
Carly Fiorina: 1.0%

LIVE: Senator Sanders' Victory Speech from Hanover, NH

"...Tonight! Tonight, we've done some rather extraordinary and it is because of the people in this room, not just the people in this room. People across this state by the thousands, from the cities of Manchester and Portsmouth and Concord to the little towns of Colebrook and Hampton and Exeter. Tonight, we've a clear and unapologetic message to the establishment class and the billionaire class on Wall Street. You cannot buy an election, Wall Street does not decide the outcome of election, Main Street does and tonight the people have spoken and the people have won...Now has I've said throughout this campaign this election is not about Bernie Sanders - it's not about Hillary Clinton, it is about all of you, it is about the middle class and what kind of country we can have and build together, where there is equality for all, not some, -- for all. The working people of this country have been forgotten about. They've been abandon, their voices are no longer heard, well America is waking up, we're hearing the voices again and they're saying, enough is enough, it is time to take our country back and it started tonight right here in New Hampshire!"

Absurd
~ The 2016 Election ~

[Fubart Solman]

A Sanders victory in NH? Sign me up.

[NHI]

1. Things Fall Apart

"...Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is our projected winner in the Iowa Caucus."

√ Projected Winner: Sen. Rick Santorum 21%  Marco Rubio: 18%

Iowa Caucuses: Republicans (86% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 21.5%
Marco Rubio: 18.4%
Scott Walker: 13.0%
Rand Paul: 11.9%
Ted Cruz: 7.4%
Ben Carson: 6.6%
Chris Christie: 5.9%
Jeb Bush: 5.3%
Rick Perry: 3.3%
Carly Fiorinia: 2.9%
John Kasich: 1.0%
Lindsey Graham: 1.0%
Other: 0.8%
Bob Ehrlich: 0.8%
George Pataki: 0.4%

Rick Santorum, trumped early favorite to win Iowa, Scott Walker. The 2012 winner, relied on his support from Evangelicals to push him over the top to win the Caucus state. Iowa '08 winner Mike Huckabee ended his campaign in the fall of 2015, after poor fundraising and polling and endorsed Santorum, giving him a clear shot at taking the state and it paid off. Still, a win with only 21% in a crowded field was hardly seen as running away with it. Santorum faced stiff competition from Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who in the wake of Jeb Bush's crumbling campaign attempted to assume the mantle as the establishment pick. Scott Walker, (equally admired by those in the establishment) tried to assume the conservative mantle, but his campaign's overconfidence in Iowa betrayed them and Santorum's come from behind strategy paid off and now the Republican field is completely turned on its head, going into New Hampshire.

Santorum, the runner up to 2012 nominee Mitt Romney, hoped the Republican Party's orthodoxy of going with the previous runner up would help him find a path to the nomination, coupled with winning Iowa, he felt his chances were golden, but the Republican Party of 2016 was not the party of the past and Santorum, even after winning Iowa found himself struggling with support in New Hampshire and beyond. Despite, Santorum's come from behind victory the media dubbed Rubio, the big winner coming out Iowa and Walker the loser. The Wisconsin Governor staked his whole primary campaign on Iowa and a dismal third place showing gave him very few options.

Long shots and fringe candidates found their way to the exit doors after Iowa. Dr. Ben Carson, announced he was dropping out during his concession speech, but did not endorse a candidate. Former Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich dropped out the day after Iowa and endorsed Marco Rubio. Texas Senator and conservative firebrand, hoped a strong showing in Iowa would revive his sagging Presidential campaign, but his fifth place showing behind Rand Paul dashed any hopes of a comeback. After months of fundraising struggles the Texas Senator called it quits and returned home to Texas. "We gave it our best, but in the end it was not enough."

"...We are now ready to project Hillary Clinton, win prevail in the Iowa Caucuses. The former Secretary of State will win the close contest here in Iowa."

√ Projected Winner: Hillary Clinton: 39%  Bernie Sanders: 34%

Iowa Caucuses: Democrats (81% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 39.7%
Bernie Sanders: 34.2%
Martin O'Malley: 12.9%
Jim Webb: 8.9%
Lincoln Chaffee: 2.4%
Other: 1.9%

Hillary Clinton, was seen as the Democratic favorite to win the nomination and the general election. The former Secretary of State had the fundraising advantage, the name recognition advantage and political advantage that most believed she would win the nomination in a cakewalk. However, a rough start to campaign, coupled with increasing questions over her time as Secretary of State, the Clinton Foundation and her own trustworthiness gave her opponents, particularly Bernie Sanders and opening. The Vermont Senator, launched his long shot bid against all odds, but in the wake of what the media dubbed "The Clinton Crumble" Bernie Sanders looked to pick up the pieces and position himself as Clinton's one and only competitor.

Martin O'Malley, for all the hype surrounding his campaign failed to catch fire and even though he scored a few points in his debates with Clinton, including a knock against political dynasties, he was largely written by the media and Democratic voters and his campaign struggled to find its footing as 2016 dawned.

Bernie Sanders looked to get to Clinton's left on issues of trade, campaign finance and Wall Street reform. Elizabeth Warren's decision not to run created an opening for Sanders to assume the populist mantle, or as he spoke on the campaign trail, "I am here to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic party," Sanders could not compete with Clinton with money, but he could challenge her on ideas and enthusiasm. Polls showed a close race heading into Iowa and the thought of many in the media was if Sanders had another week, he could have won the Caucuses, still only losing by five points to Clinton was seen as a major victory his campaign and many in the media began to see Clinton's showing not merely as a crumble, but a potential and perhaps likely collapse.


Coming out of Iowa, Clinton saw a shrinking lead in New Hampshire. Bernie Sanders was ready for a fight. Senator Rand Paul was ready to tussle with Governor Chris Christie, who staked his entire campaign on a win in New Hampshire, a la John McCain. Scott Walker's goose appeared cooked. Jeb Bush, already was history. Marco Rubio looked to South Carolina and beyond. The public fastened their seat belts. The Election, had only just begun.

2. New Hampshire Stands with Rand and Bernie

"...New Hampshire has a history of toppling frontrunners and giving way to underdogs. We project Senator Rand Paul has now won the New Hampshire primary."

√ Projected Winner: Rand Paul 26%  Chris Christie: 24%

"Ihave a message, a message which is heard from coast to coast, starting in Iowa, now here in New Hampshire and soon to all fifty states and the message is loud and clear: We, are ready to take our country back!"

Post Bridge-gate Chris Christe's chances of being the Republican nominee were always slim to none. The Governor once seen as the Republican Party's savior, was hindered by whispers of corruption and tainted by scandal. The New Jersey Governor, ran a small campaign, focusing squarely on New Hampshire. The state proved a successful stomping ground for John McCain in 2000 and 2008 and Christie believed his straight talk, tell it like it is personality would serve him well in New Hampshire and for a while it seemed to be working.

Jeb Bush could not escape the weight of his brother and family name, as well as his own shortcomings as a candidate. His unapologetic embrace of common core and immigration reform hurt him with the base and despite a stellar fundraising effort, Bush became defined early by the media and his opponents as an aloof candidate, running entirely on his family brand. During a debate Rand Paul lambasted the former Florida Governor as "an embodiment of everything the Republican Party is trying to shake itself of, war, family linage, cronyism." Tough words, but they hurt. The collapse of Bush, which began in earnest back in the spring of 2015, reached a climax in the late fall of 2015 and by Iowa Bush had fallen to single digits and continued to drop. He hope to recharge his campaign in Florida, but with poor showings in the important early states many doubted he could have a comeback.

Christie seized on Bush's collapse and concentrated his efforts on New Hampshire's independent nature and open primary status. Over the course of eight months Christie held over 100 town halls in the state, repeatedly calling New Hampshire, his "second home state." Some polls gave him a slight edge, but Paul had worked in building up a solid infrastructure in the state, taking what his father had done in both 2008 and 2012 and expanding it. Next to Christie he was the only candidate to make the most frequent stops in New Hampshire and it paid off. While close and narrow Paul won the first in the nation primary. Christie's presidential dream came to sad end, and New Hampshire once again proved itself to be a state that will surprise the nation - every four years.

No bigger surprise came when Hillary Clinton lost to Bernie Sanders, from neighboring Vermont. Polls showed Sanders closing in on Clinton, and her narrow win in Iowa hit that narrative home, but the Clinton campaign believed New Hampshire would pull through for them. It was the state that made Bill Clinton "The comeback kid" in 1992 and revived Hillary's own campaign after a stunning loss to Barack Obama in 2008. Clinton banked on New Hampshire and its long affinity with the Clinton's but the state had changed in eight years -- it had change in twenty-four years. Clinton suffered the political consequences of being denied victory in New Hampshire. She took the state for granted and came up short, enough to give Bernie Sanders the kind of momentum his campaign needed, underscoring that going out of New Hampshire the race for the Democratic nomination would be a two person contest. Clinton vs. Sanders.

Dropouts after New Hampshire:
Republicans: George Pataki (endorsed Marco Rubio), John Kasich (did not endorse)
Democrats: Lincoln Chaffee (endorsed Bernie Sanders), Jim Webb (endorsed Hillary Clinton)

Gallup Democratic Primary Poll: Clinton: 44%  Sanders: 35% 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

This is really, really, really good!

[NHI]

This is really, really, really good!

Thanks, I appreciate it!

[Cranberry]

This is too good to be true

Eager to see more!

[Flake]

I really like this timeline.

[AelroseB]

Beautiful.  :')

[BigVic]

This is going to be epic. More please!

[ProgressiveCanadian]

#Sandersmentum

[Enderman]

This looks amazing, NHI!

[NHI]

3. Abandon Ship

Lindsey Graham ran for President to make National Security a top priority in the campaign -- and he also ran for President to go after Rand Paul. Throughout the primary season, leading up to the first vote Graham repeatedly blasted Paul for his foreign policy views, calling him "to the left of Barack Obama". During one heated exchange in New Hampshire, back in the fall of 2015 Graham attacked Paul for believing in "strength through appeasement," leading Paul to retort by saying, "Senator, your policy is to begin a third war in the middle east, and I would ask you how did the previous workout for us, not too well, if I might add."

Still Graham for all his bluster and bull was a long shot candidate, at best. Merely serving a purpose to go after Paul and divide the field in South Carolina. Despite, his perceived home court advantage Graham struggled to fend off Rubio and Walker in early polls. Graham and his campaign knew any success or failure rested on winning South Carolina, his home state. Prior to his collapse, Jeb Bush decided to write off South Carolina and instead focus on Iowa, New Hampshire and the states that would follow afterwards, though like the entire Bush campaign it would prove to be a rather huge mistake.

Coming out of New Hampshire, Chris Christie found his campaign off life support and fading. The once prominent and massive field had thinned down to only seven candidates, with Christie waffling about competing in South Carolina. Publicly, he vowed to fight on. His narrow second place finish to - Rand Paul showed his campaign had been revived and there was justification to at least try for the gold once more, but privately Christie and his campaign aides knew the race was over. They needed a win in New Hampshire, and despite Paul's narrow margin of victory, second was not first. Christie had bet the farm on New Hampshire and lost.

Santorum positioned himself as the true conservative in the race. A patron saint of the Evangelical wing, battled tested from the culture wars and ready to keep up the fight, especially following the Supreme Court's landmark decision over marriage equality, and he could also position himself as Republican who could take a populist fight against Hillary Clinton, in a way no other candidate could in the field. Santorum, the second place finisher and certain winner of the Iowa Caucuses in 2016 saw himself as the candidate who could run as the alternative to Marco Rubio, the all but inevitable establishment choice and Rand Paul, the libertarian.

Many in the press doubted Santorum having broad appeal, however, as the field began to shrink the impossibility of Santorum rising, began to be reevaluated. For whatever reason, Bush, like Christie remained in the fight after New Hampshire, hoping to make a strong showing in South Carolina, but by this point the pundits and Republican voters had written off him and his campaign. This left Walker, but his third place finish in Iowa crushed any dreams he might have had of winning the Republican nomination. He remained in the race after New Hampshire and arrived in South Carolina for a day of campaigning, but after one day back on the trail, returned home to Wisconsin, where he pulled the plug on his campaign. Walker, announced he would endorsing potentially after South Carolina and at the latest before the March 1st contests. Many were shocked over Walker's spectacular flop, but some political veterans surmised his campaign as "a flash in the pan, nothing more and nothing less."

No surprise Carly Fiorina ended her campaign for President after finishing last in New Hampshire. Out of six debates, during the primary, she appeared in three and failed to make the cut off for the next three. Her potential nomination was always unlikely, she merely served (or tried to) as a foil for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, the only other woman in the race for President. Her departure was with little fanfare or notice. She quietly endorsed Marco Rubio and strangely enough, at least for a few weeks was mentioned as a potential running mate for the eventual nominee, but that speculation too ended rather quickly.

In the end Graham, won his home state of South Carolina with 33 percent of the vote. Marco Rubio was the runner up with 25 percent. Graham, thanked his supporters in a primary night rally -- the high watermark of his campaign. He, in all actuality never expected to win. He did carry his home state, and while he would remain in the race for a few a little while longer, Graham had served his purpose and South Carolina, like in 2012 would prove irrelevant in selecting the eventual Republican nominee.

South Carolina Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Lindsey Graham: 33.6%
Marco Rubio: 25.4%
Rick Santorum: 14.8%
Rand Paul: 12.5%
Jeb Bush: 6.8%
Chris Christie: 5.8%
Other: 1.1%

Christie Steps Aside, Clears Way for Rubio

Christie's exit came as no surprise. He withdrew after his last place showing in South Carolina and endorsed Marco Rubio, another clear sign of the establishment's embrace of the Florida Senator. Christie's departure left Bush as the only-quasi establishment candidate, and many party elders even began to call on Bush to bow out gracefully, rather than to embarrass himself any further. Bush, his poll numbers shrinking, fundraising drying out, despite still sitting on a healthy campaign war chest, could have backed out and thrown his support behind the only plausible candidate, Marco Rubio, but he remained in the race, In a public statement, Bush announced he would be reevaluating his presidential campaign, but intended to campaign in Nevada and at the very least until the March 1st contests. As had been happening for months, no one gave his campaign a chance.

Bernie rattled the political establishment, with his still earth shaking defeat of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, of all place. To his campaign and to much in the media Hillary's slip in the Granite State caused many to wonder, if she can lose to him there, where else could she lose? After New Hampshire, came South Carolina, like John McCain in 2000, a site of political bad memories. Bill Clinton hated the state and its primary, never quite forgiving the Obama campaign and its surrogates for insinuating he, of all people was a racist. Though Hillary had been doing her best to mend fences in the state and hoped that after eight years she would be able to glide into the state and secure a healthy win.

Only three Democratic candidates arrived in South Carolina, after New Hampshire. Jim Webb and Lincoln Chaffee bid adieu and Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland Governor hoped to revive his campaign with a strong showing in the Palmetto State -- no one was betting on an O'Malley resurgence, or for that matter a surge at all. From the launch of his campaign in May 2015, he lagged behind Sanders and Clinton, generally garnering high single digits. His double digits showing in Iowa would be the best performance for his campaign.

Eight years after Barack Obama cleaned her clock by more than 20 points, Hillary made South Carolina, Clinton Country. She earned a nine point win over Bernie Sanders and reclaimed the narrative of a campaign on the ropes.

South Carolina Primary: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 48.7%
Bernie Sanders: 39.9%
Martin O'Malley: 10.6%
Other: 0.8%

Martin O'Malley would soon be gone, but Bernie Sanders would not be going anywhere fast, but at least for the moment Hillary Clinton was back on top and ready for the fight ahead with Sanders. "South Carolina knows I do not quit easily," Hillary told her supporters. "I keep getting up and fighting on."

Next stop was Nevada for the presidential candidates. A state Rand Paul banked on another win. The decision to preserve the state as a caucus, rather than become a primary was seen as an early roadblock for the Bush campaign and a boost for Rand Paul. The Kentucky Senator made a strong push in the state and it paid off, handsomely. He won the Nevada Caucuses with 39 percent of the vote, coming way ahead of Marco Rubio who finished second with only 24 percent of the vote.

Despite Bush's presence in the race, Marco Rubio was for all intents and purposes the establishment pick, but after his bruising defeat to Paul in Nevada, coupled by a less than stellar second place finish in South Carolina, many were beginning to question and openly doubt if Rubio had the chops necessary. His youth and vigor were seen as assets in the beginning, but as time wore on those assets were beginning to be seen as liabilities. One veteran Republican campaign operative believed, "Clinton would wipe the floor up with Rubio, hands down. He looks like a boy playing President, she looks like the President." Even in polling, Rubio struggle to maintain a clear lead or even establish a lead. Paul was a tenacious campaigner and intended to only grow his support, not shrink with it. With Rubio in trouble for the first in a long time and, certainly not for the last time, the words "Draft Romney" were uttered again, and again.

Nevada Caucuses: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 39.2%
Marco Rubio: 24.1%
Rick Santorum: 16.9%
Lindsey Graham: 9.5%
Jeb Bush: 8.7%
Other: 1.6%

[NHI]

3. Abandon Ship (Continued)

H[/i]illary Clinton, to her credit realized a mistake she made in 2008 was to write off the Caucuses, a decision which allowed Barack Obama to amass win after win, eventually toppling her inevitable candidacy. In 2016, she made sure to avoid such a crucial error, but still, Bernie Sanders was formidable opponent and unapologetic. Bernie, would not be HHS Secretary, and he certainly would not be VP. He was running with a mission, a man on a crusade, and he would not be stopped. His take no prisoners attitude paid off and while narrow he edged out Clinton in the Nevada Caucuses, which while the media dubbed a tie, Sanders declared himself two for two and tied with Mrs. Clinton.[/i]

Nevada Caucuses: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Bernie Sanders: 45.1%
Hillary Clinton: 44.0%
Martin O'Malley: 9.2%
Other: 0.8%

Hillary's campaign originally hoped New Hampshire was the one fluke. A mere showing by the Granite State that Democrats were not eager for a quick coronation. They got the message and campaigned hard in Nevada and South Carolina. It paid off in the latter and delivered a narrow loss in the former. It soon became clear, that may be New Hampshire was more than a fluke, may be New Hampshire represented something more. May be this race would not be a coronation, and may be there existed another Democratic nominee in 2016, other than Hillary Clinton.

[Fubart Solman]

Thank you. This is beautiful. Carry on.

[BigVic]

3. Abandon Ship (Continued)

H[/i]illary Clinton, to her credit realized a mistake she made in 2008 was to write off the Caucuses, a decision which allowed Barack Obama to amass win after win, eventually toppling her inevitable candidacy. In 2016, she made sure to avoid such a crucial error, but still, Bernie Sanders was formidable opponent and unapologetic. Bernie, would not be HHS Secretary, and he certainly would not be VP. He was running with a mission, a man on a crusade, and he would not be stopped. His take no prisoners attitude paid off and while narrow he edged out Clinton in the Nevada Caucuses, which while the media dubbed a tie, Sanders declared himself two for two and tied with Mrs. Clinton.[/i]

Nevada Caucuses: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Bernie Sanders: 45.1%
Hillary Clinton: 44.0%
Martin O'Malley: 9.2%
Other: 0.8%

Hillary's campaign originally hoped New Hampshire was the one fluke. A mere showing by the Granite State that Democrats were not eager for a quick coronation. They got the message and campaigned hard in Nevada and South Carolina. It paid off in the latter and delivered a narrow loss in the former. It soon became clear, that may be New Hampshire was more than a fluke, may be New Hampshire represented something more. May be this race would not be a coronation, and may be there existed another Democratic nominee in 2016, other than Hillary Clinton.

Interesting update!

[NeverAgain]

Here comes the Bern.

[SATW]

this is great

[/]

Here comes the Bern.

[JonathanSwift]

Fantastic timeline!

[NHI]

4. The Long Haul

Hillary and Co. expected nominal challenges. They expected Bernie Sanders to be fun competition. They expected him to be gone by New Hampshire. They did not expect him to become stiff competition. They did not expect him to win New Hampshire. Hillary blitzed the twelve states voting on March 1st, with hefty ad buys and stops; many which included big delegate prizes. If Bernie wanted a fight, she would take it to him, but the MO of the Clinton campaign was not sudden death for the nomination, but all out destruction. An avalanche of money, burying the Sanders' campaign -- more actually blindsiding his campaign.

Yet Bernie was tenacious. He rose through from a small nobody to becoming a Mayor, and then a Congressman and ultimately a Senator, the longest serving Independent Senator to boot. He knew how to play the ground game. He knew how to organize. He may not have had Barack Obama's 2008 infrastructure, but he did have the passion of his supporters and he did have a message which resonated with many in the Democratic Party. Those who were at one point calling on Elizabeth Warren, found solace in Bernie Sanders.

The Warren run was something feared by the Clinton campaign from the start, and they made a conscious effort to neutralize her, by having Hillary get out ahead and stake position in the Elizabeth Warren wing of the party. Most doubted she would even run, but the thought of maybe terrified the Clinton Campaign and they considered her candidacy to be potent. When it became clear, that Elizabeth Warren would not run for President, feeling her position was best served in the United States Senate, both Clinton and Sanders courted her endorsement, yes even Martin O'Malley met with her in Boston - for five minutes.

Warren, the champion of the working class admired Bernie Sanders and while she ultimately chose to stay neutral and not endorse either candidate, many close to her believed she found Sanders to be an acceptable and even better alternative to Hillary Clinton.

Bernie knew he could never compete with Hillary on the money level, but that was not his schtick. He was running on ideas. He was running with a vision. He would take his message anywhere and to anyone who would listen -- and did they listen. Crowds swarmed the Vermont Senator. At a rally in Colorado, right before the vote an estimate 5,000 people attended to hear him speak. As Chuck Todd described it, "he's not someone to be ignored and the Clinton Campaign knows it."

On March 1st, twelve states casts their votes from Vermont to Texas, and Hillary Clinton walked away the big winner, carrying eight states and a lead in the delegates. But, Bernie Sanders, again defied expectations. He won four states, along with his home state of Vermont (which he carried with 62% of the vote to Clinton's 28%). He also won blowouts in both Colorado and Minnesota; defeating Clinton by over ten points in both states. He also took  Massachusetts, in a surprise upset, winning it 49% to 46%, and kept the margins close in Virginia of all places. Hillary carried the states 49% to 43%.

His momentum undeniable. His support growing. At his victory rally in Burlington, VT, he pledged to fight on and saw his strong showing in the contests as a clear sign that his campaign not only had wings, but had taken flight and was "soaring across this great land." Adding to his glee, the first Gallup poll after March 1st showed Sanders narrowed the margin between him and Clinton to only five points. 43% for Hillary, 38% for Bernie.

The media's story after March 1st was that Bernie was still in the race for the Democratic nomination, despite Clinton's big win, including impressive victories in Texas (56% to 37%). Clinton also won big across the south, in large parts thanks to strong turnout from African-Americans, a voting group the Clinton campaign was desperate to hang onto, in the waning Obama years. She scored victories in Alabama and North Carolina, both states which went heavily for Obama eight years prior, and Clinton won them handily. The Clinton camp was declaring victory, but they knew they were only saying it to themselves. Sure, Martin O'Malley pulled up shop, but Bernie remained in the race and already thoughts of a 2008 replay, going all the way to June danced in the campaign's collective heads.

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Four days later, on Saturday March 5th Louisiana and Maine held their respective caucuses. Eight years prior, Hillary lost both to Obama and Hillary blitzed the two states. Polls showed Louisiana would be the safest, so the campaign put up shop in Maine and put her all over the state from Portland to Augusta, to Kittery to Bangor. When the votes were counted on that Saturday Clinton prevailed easily in Louisiana, beating Sanders 59% to 39%, but the state of Maine eluded Hillary once more and Sanders scored one of his biggest wins in the primary race. While Clinton largely focused on the big cities, Sanders had been crisscrossing the entire state for months, almost as frequently as he did in New Hampshire and it paid off -- handsomely.

Maine Caucuses: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Bernie Sanders: 57.81%%
Hillary Clinton: 42.02%
Uncommitted: 0.24%
Other: 0.01%

"He's not going anywhere," a Clinton aide said off the record, following their loss to Sanders in Maine. "And that's the problem. "We can go the long haul, but we'd rather avoid it, if at all possible."

Even as Hillary dealt with their growing and persistent challenge of Bernie Sanders, Republicans faced their own hurdles. The field was down to only Rubio, Paul, Santorum, Graham and Bush. Bush, everyone knew was on his way out and even though he vowed to remain in until March 1st, many believed he would likely call it quits before any votes were cast. Even in the field Bush was a non-starter, that left Graham, the winner in South Carolina and neo-con in the race, Rubio the emerging establishment choice, who had yet to win a single contests, Santorum, the conservative populist firebrand, who defied the odds to win Iowa; again, and last, but not least the libertarian and GOP contrarian  Rand Paul, the winner of both New Hampshire and Nevada. Th field readied for a showdown on March 1st, one which see the long awaited exit of Jeb Bush and the further fracturing of the Republican Party.

Rand Paul
Rick Santorum
Lindsey Graham

[NHI]

5. The Power of Paul

"Another win for Rand Paul!"

Rand Paul. The junior Senator from Kentucky. The libertarian candidate. The heir to the Ron Paul throne. The thorn to the Republican establishment. The rebel. Rand Paul entered the 2016 race an underdog, but certainly not a second rate underdog. Paul quickly proved in financing and in support he could compete with the Republican heavyweights and win places Republicans could only dream of winning. He bet his political life on New Hampshire and it paid off, setting him on a blazing path to take Nevada and on March 1st, despite an onslaught of money being spent against him, particularly from Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham, Paul emerged the winner on March 1st, carrying five of the ten voting states.

Colorado Caucuses: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 37.1%
Marco Rubio: 27.9%
Rick Santorum: 25.6%
Lindsey Graham: 7.9%
Other: 1.5%

Minnesota Caucuses: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 39.9%
Rick Santorum: 29.9%
Marco Rubio: 21.2%
Lindsey Graham: 6.1%
Other: 2.9%

Massachusetts Primary: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 46.5%
Marco Rubio: 29.9%
Lindsey Graham: 13.3%
Rick Santorum: 9.1%
Other: 1.1%

Vermont Primary: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 48.0%
Marco Rubio: 29.9%
Lindsey Graham: 8.1%
Rick Santorum: 6.4%
Other: 3.6%

Virginia Primary: Republican (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 32.2%
Marco Rubio: 31.9%
Rick Santorum: 18.1%
Lindsey Graham: 15.8%
Other: 3.0%

Rand Paul's winning edge came narrowly close and much of it hinged on Jeb Bush. Bush's candidacy sank faster than a ball and chain in a pool, but for namesake, for image sake, perhaps, he kept in the race, even as his chances dimmed more and more. He finished last in Nevada, but vowed to remain in the race through March 1st, but as the polls showed him increasingly dropping, he decided to abandon ship and reluctantly and perhaps bitterly accepted the inevitable and endorsed Marco Rubio on the eve of the vote.

Bush's delay no doubted hurt Rubio and denied him a potential sweep on March 1st. In the end Rubio only carried Tennessee (defeating Santorum, his closest competitor 35.0% to 33.9%) and Texas (37% for Rubio, 34% for Paul). Rick Santorum, performed better than expected, winning two states, Georgia (39% for Santorum, 35% for Rubio) and Oklahoma (41% for Santorum, 35% for Rubio). Lindsey Graham, even secured a second and final win of the primary season. In North Carolina, he narrowly prevailed over Rubio and Santorum, winning the state with only 30% of the vote. Rubio finished second with 29%.

Paul walked away the big winner of the night and the establishment shuttered at his surging campaign. Realizing he could go no further, Lindsey Graham ended his bid for the Presidency and backed Rubio immediately. While he could no longer offer slingshot attacks at Paul from inside the race, he continued on the outside and began his bid in earnest for Vice President.

The attacks on Paul continued from both Santorum and Rubio, the only two competitor left in the once massive Republican field. Rubio, the establishment choice, Paul the insurgent and Santorum the conservative crusader. From the outside, the likes of Peter King, John McCain, Kelly Ayotte and other piled on Paul, blasting his views on foreign policy as extreme and to the left of Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton. During a campaign stop in Louisiana, Marco Rubio even said, "I think America will be more unsafer and the world much more dangerous if Rand Paul were to win the nomination and the Presidency. We've seen uncertainty for the last seven years under Barack Obama, it could only be worse with a President Paul."

Paul wore the attacks like badge of honor and blasted the GOP establishment and remaining Republican rivals as being warmongers and fear stokers. While campaigning in Ohio, Paul blasted Rubio and Santorum by name, calling them out for being "out step with many people who have been turned off by the Republican Party over the years and being out of step with the greater country at large." Polls showed a tightening race, despite assuming the conservative mantle, as well as being the last man standing, Santorum polled third behind Paul, who kept it close with Rubio, who struggled to find his footing on uncertain ground, even as a groundswell of support and money came tumbling his way.

Unsurprisngly 2012 Republican nominee and Republican statesman Mitt Romney rallied around Marco Rubio and endorsed his candidacy after months of sitting on the sidelines. He reportedly planned to endorsed Bush from the start, but as his candidacy floundered and flamed out, Romney withdrew and watched the field, keeping an eye on Rubio and Chris Christie, before his dream ended too. Romney's backing of Rubio was the final seal of approval from the establishment and the Florida Senator was ready to go the distance. Santorum cried foul, saying "once again the establishment and elites are trying to select the nominee." Paul joined in the jeers, only in his remarks saying, "it has been clear for sometime that Marco Rubio is the choice of party elders and political bosses, while our campaign is one of the grassroots and people. The election is a choice between the status quo and continuing with it, or breaking from it and starting something new. I believe the American people are ready to try something new. To make a fresh start. I am confident we will prevail and come July we will have a united party ready to take on Hillary Clinton or whomever the Democrats decide to nominate."

On March 5th, the Republicans held contests in three states: Wyoming, Maine and Louisiana. Marco Rubio hoped to emerge the victory in at least two of the three states, setting him up big for the states like Ohio on March 8th, but it was not to be the case. Santorum was the favorite in Wyoming (he beat Rubio 44% to 30%), and in Louisiana (he won 40% to 36%). Santorum, kept hope alive for the conservative Evangelical wing of the party and vowed to press on. "We've got the momentum," he declared in New Orleans.

In Maine, like it was Sanders Country for Bernie, Paul proved to have what it takes to win Maine. He carried the Caucuses easily, beating both Santorum and Rubio by 10 and 15 points respectively. Rubio continued to struggled, a curse which had befallen many of the GOP candidates in '16. In a normal primary, Paul and Santorum would be swept up and left behind stranded in the dust, but '16, and it had been seen on both the left and right was anything but a normal year.

Rand Paul: 230
Rick Santorum: 163
Marco Rubio: 194
Lindsey Graham: 30

[NHI]

6. The Center Holds

"Enough is enough! We are handing this election to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders. It is time to rally behind the clear, consensus candidate and elect Marco Rubio as our nominee."

The backing of Marco Rubio by Ohio Governor John Kasich, was seen as a big boost for his campaign heading into the Ohio primary. Rubio had been struggling for weeks as the newly minted Republican frontrunner and needed a big win, but in the state of Ohio Rick Santorum was running strong. He nearly took the state from Mitt Romney and a victory would have likely have derailed his campaign and put Santorum on the path to the nomination. Four years hence, a loss for Rubio in Ohio would be the end of his campaign once and for all.

The problem wasn't only in Ohio, but neighboring Michigan, where Santorum was running far ahead of Rubio. Rubio touched down in the state and spent the final leg of the campaign before the vote crisscrossing back and forth. The focus on Rubio and Santorum in the midwest heartland put Rand Paul out of the spotlight. He polls numbers dwindled in both states, and running low on fiances he took to campaigning in the Hawaii and Kansas Caucuses, but the focus on the two other candidates drowned out Paul and on March 8th, he won only Hawaii. Paul did perform better in Michigan and narrowly lost the state.

Rubio was often talked about as the savior of the Republican Party. His young visage, coupled with Cuban roots made him an almost tailored made candidate for a party looking to redefine itself for a new generation and new century. Rubio was powerful on the stump and could deliver a speech, but overall he proved a lousy campaigner. He entered the race with great expectations, but then took a backseat, as Jeb Bush and Scott Walker battled out for the frontrunner status. The slow decline and decay of both the Bush and Walker campaigns projected Rubio into center stage, but the GOP's golden boy seemed unprepared for his sudden place as the defacto leader of the party. He struggled to keep his campaign operation together, during the battle of looking to win over Republican voters, while at the same time keeping one eye on the Democrats and the general election. It was a disaster to say the least.

Santorum's return in Iowa and come from behind strategy he had been playing all along paid off. He asserted himself as the conservative populist in the race, while also making the strong pitch that as the runner up in 2012, he was next in line for the nomination. A strong fight persisted between the two campaigns over Ohio and Michigan, but Santorum, better equipped to talk economic populism, while preaching conservative values seemed to pay off and once again the former Pennsylvania Senator surprised his opponents and the pundits.

March 8th Vote:

Ohio Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 36.8%
Marco Rubio: 34.0%
Rand Paul: 28.9%
Other: 0.2%

Michigan Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 35.5%
Rand Paul: 33.9%
Marco Rubio: 30.1%
Other: 0.5%

Kansas Caucus: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 39.5%
Marco Rubio: 33.9%
Rand Paul: 26.3%
Other: 0.3%

Alabama Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rick Santorum: 41.2%
Marco Rubio: 37.7%
Rand Paul: 20.4%
Other: 0.7%

Mississippi Primary: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Marco Rubio: 40.0%
Rick Santorum: 39.4%
Rand Paul: 20.3%
Other: 0.3%

Hawaii Caucus: Republicans (100% Reported)

√ Rand Paul: 49.1%
Marco Rubio: 29.8%
Rick Santorum: 21.0%
Other: 0.1%

Paul had one thing going for him after March 8th, he was not Marco Rubio and despite his surge the Republican Party seemed unlikely to nominate Rick Santorum. Paul had hoped for a better showing, but his campaign pressed on, instead looking to Missouri and Illinois the following week and Puerto Rico a few days later. As for Marco Rubio, having only narrowly prevailed in Mississippi and lost everywhere else, there was very little justification for a further continuation of his candidacy. Party insiders remarked, "if he's losing to Rick Santorum and Rand Paul, how do you think he is going to fare against Hillary or Sanders?" The fear that Rubio, while charismatic was still wet behind the ears and flashbacks of his infamous water bottle incident kept reoccurring over and over. The party was in trouble -- there was no clear nominee and with it too late for a draft movement, the prospects of a brokered convention seemed more plausible than ever!

Rand Paul: 276

Rick Santorum: 273

Marco Rubio: 261

Gallup Republican Primary Poll: March 11, 2016

Marco Rubio: 33%
Rick Santorum: 31%
Rand Paul: 30%
Undecided: 6%

Gallup General Election Poll: March 11, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 46% (+5)

Marco Rubio: 41%

Bernie Sanders: 44%
Marco Rubio: 45% (+1)

Hillary Clinton: 47% (+6)
Rick Santorum: 41%

Bernie Sanders: 44% (+1)
Rick Santorum: 43%

Hillary Clinton: 46% (+1)
Rand Paul: 45%

Bernie Sanders: 45%
Rand Paul: 45%

[NHI]

7. No Prisoners

"Bernie Sanders will win big tonight!"

"This campaign has been growing from city to city, town to town, state to state. It is a message that resonates with middle income and working families. It is a winning message and it is why we have succeeded tonight and it is why we're going to win!"

Hillary Clinton knew she was in trouble. Exit polls in Michigan and Ohio showed her narrowly ahead or tied with Bernie Sanders. Days before most polls showed her with a clear lead, but it was not the case as the votes came in. Panic set in on the Clinton campaign as an avalanche of Sanders support toppled their way, pushing and crushing what infrastructure and months of groundwork they left in the states. When the dust settled, the campaign team looked each other, dazed and confused. "Did Bernie Sanders really do that?" The better question, was "How?"

Ohio Primary: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 50.01%
Bernie Sanders: 49.68%
Other: 0.31%

Michigan Primary: Democrats (100% Reported)

√ Bernie Sander: 50.87%

Hillary Clinton: 48.55%
Other: 0.58%

The almost loss in Ohio showed Sanders had staying power, but Michigan was bigger problem and headline of the night. Sanders relentlessly went after Clinton for being indecisive on the issue of trade, as well as drawing focus to her record as Secretary of State, especially the sale of a Michigan company to China, which was overseen during her tenure. The effort by Sanders paid off and Clinton stumbled.

The former Secretary of State, did head into March 9th, with some dignity. She prevailed in Mississippi and Hawaii, but the defeats in Michigan and near loss in Ohio burned her. Already, many in the media wrote off her candidacy as being at an end. The momentum belonged to Sanders and no matter how unlikely or implausible it seemed, Hillary Clinton appeared to be on the verge of a second primary loss to an insurgent candidate.  The Sanders campaign basked in the glow of its growing support and new found momentum. He prevailed in the Kansas, beating Clinton 54% to 45%. In the Clinton campaign, gloom, despair, but also focus. They treated Sanders with kid gloves up until that point, but no longer. As Clinton supposedly said to an adviser following the March 8th,

"Destroy him." -- Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

[Fubart Solman]

I love this timeline.

[NHI]

8. Her Time

Hillary Clinton is anything, if not a fighter. Her fortitude during the 2008 Primaries earned her supporters and admirers from both sides of the aisle. She earned the respect of rival, then Senator and future President Barack Obama. Tenacious. Hard nosed and driven. Hillary showed she could go the distance in 2008 and in the wake of Bernie Sanders, another insurgent liberal candidate, he was determined to go even further, though this time remain the last one standing. Following her bruising bash with Bernie on March 8th, Clinton recovered and won Puerto Rico (61% to 39%) and she assailed Sanders heading into the vote on March 15th, drawing comparison to 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney, who before he secured the nomination buried fellow challengers Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich in a barrage of ad buys, outpacing his Republican rivals 3-1.

Sanders had momentum after Michigan and was closing strong in both Florida and Illinois, but Hillary was not going to let him gain another inch.

"She's in the fight of her life." -- Chuck Todd

"...now or never for Hillary Rodham Clinton. This is big." -- Chris Matthews

"She is going as hard against him as she did against Barack Obama in '08." -- Joe Scarborough

Hillary's trump card, or strongest hand was electability. She blasted Sanders as a "shouter" and presented herself as a "doer". She served as Secretary of State, he served comfortably in the Senate. "When has Senator Sanders led? I've led and I will lead."

Out spent and outpaced, Sanders remained unchanged. "I have never run a never ad and I never will." He relied on grassroots support, hoping to spurn Clinton that way. "Money does not buy elections. It buys influence and corrupts our elections." While polls showed a tight race in both Florida and Illinois, when the votes were in and counted, Clinton emerged the victor. She was back in control, at least for the moment.

Illinois: Democratic Primary (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 51.8%
Bernie Sanders: 48.1%
Other: 0.1%

Florida: Democratic Primary (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 52.8%
Bernie Sanders: 46.9%
Other: 0.3%

Missouri: Democratic Primary (100% Reported)

√ Hillary Clinton: 60.1%

Bernie Sanders: 39.8%
Other: 0.1%

Democratic Primary Poll: March 17, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 46%
Bernie Sanders: 40%

General Election Poll: March 17, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 47% (+6)

Marco Rubio: 41%

Hillary Clinton: 46% (+1)
Rand Paul: 45%

Hillary Clinton: 47% (+7)
Rick Santorum: 40%

Bernie Sanders: 45%
Marco Rubio: 46% (+1)

Bernie Sanders: 45%
Rand Paul: 46% (+1)

Bernie Sanders: 45% (+3)
Rick Santorum: 42%

"I'm being outspent, but our message is not fading and our support is not waning. I don't say this lightly. I would consider running as an independent in the general election, if I was unconvinced about our potential nominee's positions and views were reflective of our party and of the American people nationally." -- Bernie Sanders, on Meet The Press