Absurd

[NHI]

9. Victory, Thy Name is Paul

Rand Paul knew in a crowded field he could break through the ranks and emerge as the nominee. In a jumbled and crowded field, his strategy appeared to be working. Candidates rose and fell. Frontrunner after frontrunner was anointed, then dethroned. Paul remained a constant. A consistent presence, working on growing his small band of conservative libertarians, while doing his best to pick up support from the likes of Ted Cruz and beyond. He scored three major victories which furthered cemented his ballooning status. He breezed past Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum in Alaska, winning with 48% of the vote. In Arizona, Paul edged out Rubio in a close contest, winning with 42% of the vote, to Rubio's 39% and in Illinois!

Rubio did score with victory, Utah. He won the contest with 44% of the vote. Santorum finished second with 34%. He had won a few weeks prior his home state of Florida, but by a closer margin than expected. Rubio: 46%, Paul: 32%, Santorum: 21%.

In the aftermath of double loss in Alaska and Arizona, Rubio's chances dimmed and many Republicans, who feared a brokered convention not only would damaged the party, but result in Rand Paul as the nominee, quietly and quickly began calling for a new candidate to enter the race before it was too late. Paul Ryan was batted around as a potential savior, as was John Thune. Even Former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who had backed Rubio from the start began expressing doubts over the party's chances and even joked, "I'd jump in the race at this point." Republicans were panicking.

One week later, Rick Santorum was in the spotlight again, winning the Idaho Caucus with 40% of the vote. Rubio, not surprisingly finished third with only 25%. Rand Paul scored another win by taking the North Dakota caucus with a bruising 50% of the vote. Santorum finished second with 27% of the vote. Rubio limped out March, behind in delegates and the winner of only four states. His hope of any success lied in April, but with his poll numbers dropping Rubio looked poised for another bad month and very likely -- the end of his presidential bid.

Maryland delivered Rubio a big win at the start of April. He won the state with 43% of the vote. Paul finished second with only 34%. Washington, DC's primary went for Paul easily and the real fight was in Wisconsin. Santorum had spent the most time in the state of any candidates, and was hoping for a win. The endorsement of Walker was believed to help Rubio, but in the end he lost the primary and finished third. Paul finished a close second behind Santorum, who won the primary with 41% of the vote.

The next contests would not be until near the end of April. New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware. Santorum had a shot in Pennsylvania, while the rest were up for grabs. Paul focused extensively on the rich delegate state of New York, a state Rubio needed if he were to keep going.

Rick Santorum kept his presidential dream alive, by winning his home state of Pennsylvania. It would be his only win and strong finish of the night. The rest of the evening belong to Rubio and Paul. The Florida Senator won Delaware easily with 44% of the vote, but had a hard time closing the deal in Connecticut. He, ultimately won the state, but with a meager 39% of the vote; Paul finished second with 38%. Paul scored a win in Rhode Island, effectively making him the winner in all of New England - sans Connecticut. The real of the night, however was over New York.

Rubio had a slight advantage in money, but Paul boasted about having a better ground game. The polls showed a tight race from the start and by election night the race was too close to call. Rubio and Paul traded leads back and forth, shifting from 40 to 41% of the vote, but never higher. The networks projected Rubio the winner at 12:34 AM with 40.63% of the vote, but the AP refused to call the race, as Paul narrowly trailed in second with 40.59%. As Rubio prepared to declare victory and assume his position as the prohibitive frontrunner for the nomination, the major networks retracted their projection of New York and at 1:17 AM the AP declared that Marco Rubio had not won the primary, after all and that Rand Paul would narrowly prevail, with 40.64% of the vote. Rubio would finish second with 40.61%.

Paul's continued rise and Rubio' massive fall meant only one thing: a brokered convention was likely. The dream of all political pundits and Democrats. A nightmare for party officials and the candidates. Paul cruised out of the Empire State, in a New York State of mind and headed into May the frontrunner in the forthcoming states. His win in Washington, the following Saturday after New York further cemented his newly minted status.

Rubio vowed to remain in the race, until at least the first of May. Perhaps a stumble by Paul, or a win by Santorum in Indiana, would shake the race up again. It would not be the case. A few weeks later Marco Rubio was routed by Paul by 10 points. The Kentucky Senator won the primary easily, over his two remaining rivals (45%-35%-19%). The calendar was growing short and the biggest contests (California and New Jersey) would not be until June, and with Rubio's campaign on life support -- at best, the Florida Senator began to look at his options, none of which were positive.

Rand Paul: 581 of 1,144

Marco Rubio: 451 of 1,144
Rick Santorum: 420 of 1,144
452 Delegates remaining

Gallup Tracking Poll: Republican Nomination (May 5, 2016)

Rand Paul: 44%
Marco Rubio: 33%
Rick Santorum: 20%
Undecided: 3%

[Senator Cris]

I love your TLs!

[NHI]

10. A Clinton State of Mind

Hillary Clinton was going to be the Democratic nominee, come hell or high water. The presumptive favorite in 2008 saw her hopes dashed by a rising upstart, named Barack Obama. 2016 lacked a rising upstart. The field did have Bernie Sanders, a favorite of the liberal populists, but he lacked the magic of Obama and funds to compete against Hillary. Hillary saw the leftward shift of the party and embraced it. Sure, Sanders pulled a few surprises against Clinton. He bested her in New Hampshire; a victory which kept his campaign alive. He carried a few key victories along the way and even as his three-state thumping in Florida, Illinois and Missouri, Bernie came back and defeated Clinton decisively in Wisconsin (56% to 44%).

Pennslyvania was seen as the make-or-break state for Bernie. A win there would prolong the Democratic primary and perhaps breach a floor fight at the convention. A loss, would cripple his campaign, effectively for good and cement Clinton in a strong status. Bernie played hard in the Keystone State, but in the end, Clinton won, just as she had eight years earlier and beat Bernie in a landslide (60% - 39%). Bernie won one more contests, after Pennsylvania; Oregon (50 to 49%), but his campaign for the lack of a better word, was over.

Believing it right to stay in and "finish what we started", Bernie Sanders did not drop out, but his campaign effectively ceased to exists. Clinton became the presumptive nominee in early May, as the Republican battered themselves senseless. Bernie officially, left the race in June, after California voted. He did not release his delegates as was expected, but any hopes of him being the Democratic nominee were put to rest. Now the decision remained over whether or not to run as an independent. Many of his supporters and staunchest advocates urged him to run third party, fearing Clinton would ignore the base of the party in the general, but Bernie realizing that while his campaign was over, the cause he championed was far from over.

The heart of the party may well have been with Bernie, but its head lied with Hillary, and for a party looking to capture a near unprecedented third term, Hillary offered the best shot at victory. Some felt the party should go for broke. The Republicans were royally divided and likely royally screwed in November, so the thought among Sanders' supporters was that the Democrats should take a chance on Bernie, but again, it would not be the case.

"I will not play a spoiler. I will not give the Republicans the White House for four to eight years. It would be politically irresponsible and suicide for America." -- Bernie Sanders.

√ Hillary Clinton: 57.50%

Bernie Sanders: 40.49%
Other: 2.01%

Bernie would offer an endorsement of Hillary, which reminded many pundits of John McCain's backing of George Bush in 2000. When pushed, Bernie fully declared, "Yes, I support Hillary Clinton to be the nominee and will urge people to vote for her to be the next President."

Her Time: 2016

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

All good things must come to an end. Sanders had an excellent run. I'm sure that there will be even more twists and turns though.

[NHI]

11. Crushing Finale

Rand Paul held a lead in delegates. In the count of states won. His support among Republican voters as the top choice for the nomination. However, there was still uncertainty and lack of satisfaction over the prospects of a Rand Paul nomination. Jeb Bush, plausible. Scott Walker, plausible. Marco Rubio, plausible. Rick Santorum, somewhat plausible. Rand Paul, no way. But, Rand Paul was a man on a mission and to him, to tell with protocol, to hell with tradition. Essentially, to hell with the GOP.

Rand Paul readied his troops, but Rick Santorum was not finished yet. In May, he won West Virginia and Nebraska, easily trumping Paul and Marco Rubio and soon breezed past Rubio for second place in the delegate count. Rubio, struggled to put points on the board. The nomination was never going to be wrapped up in time, but at least some momentum would help his cause going into the convention, but the GOP golden boy continued to struggled and falter. Paul easily won his home state of Kentucky with 75 percent of the vote and won Oregon in a blowout as well (55%, Rubio: 31%, Santorum: 13%).

Santorum returned with another in later in May, narrowly edging out Rubio to win Arkansas (39%, Rubio: 34%, Paul: 26%). By June, Santorum had eclipsed Rubio for second place in most national polls, but his prospects for any big wins looked slim. Paul emerged the big winner, carrying the mega-rich delegate states of California and New Jersey over Rubio, as well as Montana and New Mexico. Santorum won only South Dakota.

Rand Paul: 930 of 1,144 (22 States carried + DC & Guam) 39.01% of the vote.

Rick Santorum: 540 of 1,144 (17 States carried) 29.89% of the vote.

Marco Rubio: 485 of 1,144 (8 States carried + American Samoa, Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands) 23.89% of the vote.

Lindsey Graham: 30 of 1,144 (2 States carried) 4.09% of the vote.

Other: 3.12%

For the first time in sixty-four years there was to be a brokered convention for a party's nomination. Rand Paul was only two-hundred votes shy of claiming of the nomination, but Santorum and Rubio were not backing down without a fight, and the Republican Party seemed more than reluctant to hand the party reins over to Rand Paul.

[NHI]

12. The Convention Day 1

"I think the nomination of Rand Paul would be suicide for the Republican Party and the country." -- John McCain

"Republicans have not been this split since Barry Goldwater, back in 1964, when the conservatives took over the convention and he became the nominee." -- Chuck Todd

Rand Paul, reveled in the political dysfunction. He was ahead in the delegates. He was ahead in states won. The nomination belong rightfully, to him. Republicans, however, were not about to turn over the nomination to anybody, especially after two bruising electoral losses to Barack Obama and the prospects of a third, concerned many over the thought that if Hillary Clinton did win the Republican Party would cease to exist. To many, the nomination of Rand Paul would only hasten that end.

The challnege was the remaining candidates. Marco Rubio, the once GOP golden boy and Rick Santorum lacked the political muscle to be declared winners on the first ballot. Even Rand Paul did not have that luxury. GOP chairman Priebus was irate. He was not about to let the Republican Party's inner turmoil and convention fight be broadcast on the nightly news and cable networks, in a time when the party needed to unite around a single candidate and take on Hillary Clinton. Day One was mired in political squabbles, without a result. No candidate was going to emerge the winner on the first ballot.

Rand Paul asserted his claim to the nomination. He had won the most states and nearly the majority of delegates to be nominated. He cajoled his fellow Republicans to step aside, but neither Santorum nor Rubio budged an inch.

The Rubio people looked to Santorum to release his delegates in support of Rubio, thereby putting him ahead of Paul in the delegate count and within spitting distance of the Republican nomination. However, Santorum, who had made an astonishing political resurrection, starting with his win in Iowa and then topping his wins in 2012, did not look to step aside, at least without a good reason. He, after all was second in the delegate count. He had won more states than Rubio. He was the one who should be asking Rubio to release his delegates. Deadlocked, the vote was poised to go on.

The lack of a clear or acceptable winner in the primary, forced many Republicans to call on, Mitt Romney once again, as the savior. His name was touted around through the primary process, an even DRAFT MITT movement started in the wake of Jeb Bush's collapse and Marco Rubio's stumbles, but Romney remained on the sidelines and seemed unlikely to step forward, unless it would be a certainty that he would win the Republican nomination, on the first ballot.

The first ballot was looking to produce no winner and the Republican Party began scrambling for another candidate, a dark horse perhaps. Paul Ryan? No. Mitch Daniels? Not a chance. Even, Chris Christie, a 2016 Presidential candidate flirted publicly with the idea of running from the convention floor. "I believe if we had enough momentum we could surprise everyone." It did not happen.

[WVdemocrat]

This is really interesting. Great TL, man.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

What's absurd is that you forgot the Northern Marianas Islands. /s

Minor pedantry aside, this is one of the best TLs I've read in the last couple of months.

[/]

Great job! This timeline is really interesting...

I think Lindsey Graham should be the kingmaker here. Has he already given away his delegates?

[NHI]

13. The Candidate

Republican Nomination: 1st ballot (2,286 Total Delegates)

Rand Paul: 930

Rick Santorum: 540
Marco Rubio: 485
Lindsey Graham: 30

The first ballot, as expected delivered no candidate with a majority of the vote, thereby opening a free-for-all. Lindsey Graham openly through his support behind Marco Rubio, calling him the strongest candidate and much "better than a President Paul". Still, Rick Santorum remained in the race, while some of his delegates flocked to both the Paul and Rubio camps. However, with the convention divided and a nominee unlikely to be produced on the second ballot, panic set in and GOP leaders began making the rounds to try and find a candidate to emerge 'from the floor'. John Thune's name was constantly batted around as a potential consensus pick. He even met with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie over the potential of forming a unity ticket, but not much came about of it.

Mitt Romney's name resurfaced time and again, but the former Massachusetts Governor ruled himself out as the candidate, even though this was the scenario he had been privately hoping for; regrettably there was not enough momentum and the delegates were all evenly divided between the three candidates.

http://nation.foxnews.com/sites/nation.foxnews.com/files/styles/story_624_300/public/rick_santorum_marco_rubio_636.jpg

Adraft candidate did emerge, finally in the wee hours of the second day. Paul Ryan, the 2012 Vice Presidential nominee and Wisconsin Congressman was touted as the savior of the party and the only candidate that could unite the party. Ryan, did not publicly accept, nor reject the DRAFT movement and thus his name was placed into nomination, along with Rubio, Paul and Santorum on the second ballot.

Political pundits gleamed over the GOP convention. A true brokered convention for the first time in decades; a convention which drew similarities to the Fictional Democratic Convention on the popular TV series, the West Wing; where Democrats went into their conventions without a clear choice for the nominee.

With Ryan's name on the ballot, the second vote was set to begin. Deals were made. Rooms filled with smokes. Balloons hung, ready to drop. Still, it remained unclear who would emerge the nominee on the second ballot...The entrance of Paul Ryan's name on the second ballot, was likely to shakeup the convention, though if in a good way remained to be seen.

Republican National Convention Presidential Nomination Vote: Second Ballot

Marco Rubio: 765 (33.43%)
Rand Paul: 749 (32.79%)
Paul Ryan: 590 (25.80%)
Rick Santorum: 175 (7.65%)
Abstain: 7 (0.33%)

Rubio emerged the frontrunner on the second ballot; though by a meager margin. Paul Ryan's who never formally acknowledge or disavowed the draft movement finished third on the second ballot, but did enough to weaken Paul and cipher off enough votes. Rick Santorum, the runner up in the delegates during the primary finished last, seeing much of his support fleet between Rubio and Ryan. He announced his full support of Marco Rubio to be the nominee and encourage his delegates on the second ballot to support the Florida Senator.

The trouble lied with Paul. His supporters cried fowl. They blamed Paul Ryan for drawing away votes and planned a walkout of the convention. As the third ballot was set to begin, each of the remaining candidates, those being Rand Paul and Marco Rubio were given ten minutes only to address the delegates and make their case for nomination.

Paul blasted the GOP establishment; Rubio pledged unity and went after HRC.

Republican National Convention Presidential Nomination Vote: Third Ballot

√ Marco Rubio: 1,441 (63.00%)

Rand Paul: 839 (36.70%)
Abstain: 6 (0.30%)

The Republican Nominee

Rubio originally looked to bring Paul into the fold; with even talk of the Vice Presidency, but the talks never made it off the ground. Paul insisted his name be placed in nomination; emboldened by having won the most states and majority of the delegates during the primaries. The final tally put Rubio well over the top to be the nominee and he selected fellow Ohio Governor and 2016 competitor John Kasich to be his running mate.

Disheartened, Paul refused to appear on stage with Rubio, in order to project an image of a united party. Instead, he bucked tradition, calling the whole process, "absurd" during an interview with CNN's Jake Tapper. He blasted the Republican Party for "following the orders of the hawks and the neocons" and "playing it safe with a nominee". Paul boldly predicted the ticket of Rubio/Kasich would lose to Hillary Clinton. "The Republicans have lost their way, once more." Paul lamented about the Libertarian Convention having come and gone two months ago, even going so far as to say, "I wish I could have had my name placed in nomination there; I'm quite confident I'd have won the first ballot, rather than have the nomination stolen from me."

When asked if Paul had any plans to endorse or appear with Rubio, he declined to answer. When asked if he would consider running as a third party, Paul blasted the idea, saying "it's too late and too hard to get on the ballot, but there are other ways of having influence."

Gallup Tracking Poll: July 22, 2016

Hillary Clinton: 50%

Marco Rubio: 36%
Undecided/Other: 14%

[Enderman]

Holy crap...Paul Ryan just handed Rubio the nomination. Just wow. Rubio/Kasich 2016! As for Rand, he seems like the posterboy for the classic sore looser.

Great job so far, NHI!

[NHI]

14. The VP

"While the Republicans are stuck talking about yesterday, we can't stop thinking about tomorrow." -- Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton reached the near pinnacle of her political career. All her hard work. Her dreams. Her ambitions. She was finally accepting the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. The Clinton Campaign ran a tight ship during the party's four day convention in Philadelphia. Chelsea would speak on the first night. Bernie Sanders would give the keynote address. The Vice Presidential nominee would speak on the third night, both Presidents Clinton, Obama and Hillary would speak on the last night.

The search for Hillary's VP began in earnest once the nomination was officially wrapped up, but the Clinton people, as well as Hillary herself began thinking as far back as the spring of 2015, just who the right candidate would be. All the usual suspects were mentioned, HUD Secretary Julian Castro, though while impressive and helpful with the Hispanic vote, Hillary believed he was not tested enough and could prove to be a Quasi-Sarah Palin. Next was Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, a respectable choice from a key state, but also a safe choice. There was Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, from the all-important state of Ohio, but not a particularly inspiring pick.

Sanders was mentioned once in conversation, but the campaign never seriously considered the idea, just as they never seriously considered Elizabeth Warren. Martin O'Malley's name appeared again and again, both in campaign circles and on the punditry tables, but Clinton despised O'Malley for running against her in 2016 and felt his tenure in Maryland was overrated and would be a drag on the ticket.

A long shot and deeply polarizing choice, but a favorite of the beltway crowd was Former Utah Governor and Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, the 2012 Republican candidate for President. Huntsman, a moderate had broken from his party after the 2012 election on a number of issues including gay marriage, and become heavily involved in the No Labels Movement; the nonpartisan non-ideological group aimed at putting country before label (and had endorsed Hillary as their respective choice for President). Huntsman, during his ambassadorship and after praised the former Secretary of State as a capable and remarkable woman. However, it seemed like such a farfetched dream ticket, but one in which Clinton was at least willing to consider. He brought enhanced foreign policy credentials. He was pragmatic, sensible and moderate and would be great at taking on the fringe elements that entangled the Republican Party, still it was getting him to yes, and that was the problem. He did not reject the idea, but he did not embrace it either.

The campaign finally settled on a shortlist that did include: Kaine, Brown, Huntsman, New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich, Vermont Governor Peter Shumlin, New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar.

A Clinton-Huntsman ticket, the fantasy of the beltway crowd.

Hillary planned to announced her pick right at the start of the convention, to maximize the energy and enthusiasm. The stage was set. The Democrats were ready. Hillary made her announcement, and it was sure to shakeup the convention.[/i]

Gallup Tracking Poll:

Clinton: 50%

Rubio/Kasich: 38%

[tmthforu94]

Continue! Excited to see who she selects!

[NHI]

15. The Next Vice President?

"I announce my selection of Jon Huntsman to be the next Vice President of the United States." -- Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton announces Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman as her pick.

Absurd. Unprecedented. Bold. Uncanny. Crazy. Divisive. Significant, were just a few of the words lobbied around as Hillary Clinton made her selection of Jon Huntsman, Former Utah Governor, Ambassador to China and -- a Republican to say the least, as her running mate for Vice President. Immediately, some Democrats began fret, especially given the face Huntsman was still a registered Republican, even if a liberal one.

Clinton made her introduction of Huntsman during a press conference, on the day of the vote for Vice President. The Former Utah Governor admitted the selection was unorthodox, but also brave. He praised Clinton for going against political winds and having the courage to party country before label. Clinton affirmed that her selection of the former Republican Utah Governor was done twofold. First, because of his immense qualifications for the jobs and the experience and gravitas he brought to the ticket and to a potential administration, and second to illustrate how far the Republican party had shifted to the right.

"Governor Huntsman's positions were once the norm in the Republican Party, now he is the odd man out, the party has left him and millions of other Republicans behind in their full on embrace of the Tea Party and extreme elements."

Huntsman, added when asked about his party registration, saying he had no intention of changing his registration. "I'm a Republican, always have been, but I've been a forgotten one. A Republican left behind by my party."

The Clinton's were prepared for a possible convention fight. Some Democrats were threatening to walk, or at the very least propose another candidate from the floor, but the DNC looked to avoid the battles of the Republicans, just a few weeks earlier. The Democrats were determined to be professional and to hold the party together. Many Democrats privately and openly asked and talked about Huntsman changing his party registration, or at the very least becoming an independent, but the Clinton Campaign stood by their choice and Huntsman remained firm in his decision.

Already the RNC blasted the choice of Huntsman. Governor Kasich called him a back stabber to the Republican Party and conservative values. The term RINO was thrown around like soft balls. RNC Chair Priebus lambasted Huntsman, on FOX's Fox and Friends, "Calling him a turn coat and a political opportunist." This kind of press was not what the Democrats wanted, but it was what the Clinton's were planning and expected.

Privately, Hillary was given assurances from Huntsman, that while they differed on some political and philosophical issues, he would be fully supportive of her agenda and administration and being willing and able to defend her and it. Huntsman agreed, and also his intention to make his candidacy about putting country first, and that this "unity ticket" would be a signal to Congress and to the country that it was time to put aside politics and get to work.

Tbeltway media was elated over the 'dream ticket'. The so-called unity ticket of a Democrat and Republican joining forces was the stuff of political dreams. Some, however wondered if Huntsman would make it through the conventions. Other commentators, including MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, while skeptical of Democrat's full embrace of the moderate Republican, did praise Clinton for "showing guts with the pick" and that while Clinton and Huntsman differed on a few issues, they shared the same view of the world and US foreign policy. He also called it both a political and presidential pick. "She's looking to shakeup the race, because she knows the GOP will eventually rally around Rubio and he's going to close the gap, and also, she is picking someone who is competent and could be President."

By the grace of God, Huntsman was going to be nominated at the Democratic convention, but still many Democrats were not too pleased with the selection, by Clinton, and some were openly calling for a nomination from the floor. Both Martin O'Malley and Tim Kaine names were mentioned as possibilities, but both dismissed the idea. A solution proposed by the Clinton campaign, in order to quell Democrats' anxiety was to have Huntsman speak before he was officially nominated, therefore giving Democrats a chance to hear him and hopefully close the deal.

Going out of order, Hillary Clinton was nominated for President first. Bernie Sanders' name was placed on the ballot, but he had already ended his bid and encouraged his delegates to back Hillary Clinton. Clinton won overwhelmingly on the first ballot, but Sanders, still managed to garner nearly 6 percent of the delegates.

Democratic Nomination for President of the United States: First Ballot

√ Hillary Clinton: 94.7%
Bernie Sanders: 5.2%
Other/Abstain: 0.1%

Huntsman used his speech to win over Democrats. While he criticized the Republican Party for abandoning the big tent and becoming beholden to the ideological right wing, he also used the speech to illustrate his political beliefs and how he had more in common with the Democrats than they might have realized.

"I am Eisenhower Republican. A type of Republican that does not exist anymore. See, I believe in balanced budgets. I believe in a strong defense. I believe in a government that works for all of our people. My party has lost its way. Republicans today are more concerned about refighting the culture wars, rather than lifting people out of poverty, or giving a tax break for the middle class. The Republican who I am today and have been all my life, is ironically enough more in common and more in line with the views and policies of the Democratic Party, than that of the Republican Party. Now what does that say? Both parties love America, there can be no dispute on that, but one party is about empowering America, while other wants to keep America back and I will not stand by and be apart of it."

"I'm a Republican. Hillary Clinton is a Democrat. Only in America, I know, but you know what, this ticket is so very much America and American and it is what this country needs now more than ever: Solutions, not partisanship. Leadership, not gridlock. Hope, not fear. Progress, not status quo. I hope to join the Secretary in making this country more prosperous and more secure. I am a Republican, yes, she is a Democrat, yes, but we love our country, we believe in this country's potential. We know the challenges we face can be met and conquered and a that a bright new day can begin for America. We simply need to start working again, working again together as one people and as one country..." -- excerpt from Jon Huntsman's speech


Needless, to say Jon Huntsman, a Republican was nominated to be the Vice Presidential nominee of the Democratic Party -- and the rest of the DNC, they say, well, was history...

Hillary Clinton becomes first woman to accept a major party's nomination for President.
"I am ready to lead on Day one: to rebuild this country and restore who we are."

[Enderman]

Rubio/Kasich vs Clinton/Huntsman. It's about to go down! I'm really divided whether to support Rubio for President or Huntsman for VP. None the less, great update.

[NHI]

16. The Fight for the Senate

Sen. Kelly Ayotte vs. Gov. Maggie Hassan was the most expensive and competitive race of the season.

While the Presidential Election ate up most the headlines, the other big race(s) of 2016 was the battle for the United States Senate. The House seemed poised to remain in the control of the Republicans, at least for another two years, the Senate however was up for grabs. The Republicans were defending more seats than the Democrats and many were in swing states or generally reliable blue states: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, Illinois, Nevada and Wisconsin.

The race in New Hampshire between incumbent Senator Kelly Ayotte and incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan was seen as the epicenter for which party controlled the Senate starting in 2017. A win by Ayotte, meant likely Republican control, but a win by Hassan meant it was anybody's game. Polls consistently showed a close race between the two candidates. Ayotte was banking on ticket splitting, while Hassan hoped having Clinton at the stop would carry her across the finish line.

Tammy Duckworth, an early favorite in Illinois

Illinois' race was a tossup starting in 2011, when Mark Kirk took office, but he soon earned a strong reputation for bipartisanship and even sympathy in the wake of his stroke, but nevertheless, the seat once held by Barack Obama, in blue Illinois, was a state the Democrats were hoping to pickup and to do make it happen, Tammy Duckworth seemed the likely choice. Early on, some polls gave Kirk a slight edge over Duckworth, but a primary challenge from Joe Walsh cost him dearly. While Duckworth breezed through the primary, Kirk had to spend time and resources fighting back a fight from the right. He ultimately prevailed, winning with 65 percent of the vote, but the race had left his low on resources. Heading into the general election most polls put the race as too close to call.

Competitive Senate Races: Cook Political Report

Florida: Tossup (R) Bill McCollum: 47% (D) Patrick Murphy: 48%

Colorado: Lean D (D) Michael Bennett: 49% (R) Owen Hill: 45%

Illinois: Tossup (R) Mark Kirk: 47% (D) Tammy Duckworth: 47%

Nevada: Tossup (D) Catherine Cortez Masto: 48% (R) Adam Laxalt: 47%

New Hampshire: Tossup (R) Kelly Ayotte: 46% (D) Maggie Hassan: 46%

Pennsylvania: Lean R (R) Pat Toomey: 50% (D) Joe Sestak: 46%

Wisconsin: Tossup (R) Ron Johnson: 48% (D) Russ Feingold: 48%

[MadmanMotley]

Great timeline so far, NHI

I'd be curious to see how the Indiana races play out, especially the Senate primary.

[SATW]

great stuff so far

[NHI]

17. It's a Generational Thing

Sen. Rubio campaigning in Iowa.

While Clinton sought to portray Rubio was inexperienced and wet behind the ears, the Rubio campaign continued their message, which they had started with at the beginning of the campaign: Hillary Clinton represents the past, Marco Rubio represents the future. The campaign believed the three debates would offer the biggest opportunity for a contrast. While the campaign would not come outright and say it, many on the team believed, the young, dynamic Rubio would upstage, the much older Hillary Clinton. Many were hoping for a defining moment, much like the Kennedy vs. Nixon debate.

Oddly enough, the 2016 election seemed to parallel the 1960 election. A vastly experienced candidate, facing a young, relatively inexperienced Senator, who after eight years of one administration pledged to 'get America moving again'. Rubio sought to capture the same lightning in the bottle that put JFK in the White House over Richard Nixon. The Clinton campaign acknowledged this parallel, but saw their blueprint for 2016 being more like 1988, in which a Vice President held onto the White House for a party's third consecutive term. The incredible feat was accomplished by portraying the young Democratic challenger as out of step with America and as a liberal. In this example, Clinton was George H.W. Bush, and Rubio was Michael Dukakis.

The Republican primary had been long and bitter. The convention had been a free for all. The platform was a bedrock of extreme conservative principles and ideas. To Hillary, wrapping Rubio up as an extreme right-winger was the next phase of her three prong strategy to win the White House.

Because of the length and uncertainty of the Republican primary, the Clintons were not prepared for the eventual nominee of Rubio. Many believed, including the former President, that after finishing third overall, Rubio would not make it past the first ballot, let alone the convention. The Clinton Team began preparing for the possibility of a Paul nomination, though it was always deemed unlikely. They prayed for Rick Santorum, but knew it would be too good to be true. Believing Rubio was too damaged and bruised because of the primary the campaign discounted him and instead believed Republican would select a consensus candidate a la Mitt Romney.

Unlike Obama, who was able to define Romney early, while the 2012 GOP primary was still on going, Clinton had to contend with an insurgent challenge from Bernie Sanders, who took longer than expected to put away. However, once she wrapped up the nomination, she still lacked a GOP opponent, so the campaign made the decision to use much of its remaining funds to begin defining and reintroducing Hillary Clinton in the eyes of votes. Done were the big speeches and rallies. Clinton hit the house party circuit and held round tables and town halls across the country.

Hillary kicks off the the fall campaign with swings through Iowa, Ohio and Virginia.

Arisky bet by the campaign, which seemed to pay off. Coming out of the conventions and into the first round of the general election, Clinton was still way ahead, though she and her team expected the gap to close as Republicans united behind Rubio and focused their energies on winning back the White House after two losses.

"History was always running against Hillary. The third term of Barack Obama, which while she openly embraced, believing the country was moving more to the left, the Republican used it as a weight around her neck, hoping it would bring her down." -- Chuck Todd (9/18/16)

"Elections are always about the future." -- Sen. Rubio in Miami, FL

Clinton hoping for a comeback, campaign in NH with Gov. Hassan and Sen. Shaheen.

[tmthforu94]

Excellent!

[NHI]

18. Ready to be President

"I know how tough this job is, I've seen up close and personal." -- Hillary Clinton

"This election is not about yesterday, it's about tomorrow." -- Marco Rubio

Hillary Clinton began preparing for her 1st presidential debate in early June. She considered a wide net of challengers, evaluating their strengths and weakness. When it became clear that Rubio would emerge the victor, Hillary began studying up on the Florida Republican. Rubio, while charismatic on the stump, had proven an average debater at best during the primary. During one of the debates, which featured Donald Trump, Rubio was caught off guard by a remark by the Donald, which included a swipe at his hair and his record on immigration. Instead of responding, Rubio stared blankly off into the distance, reminding everyone of the water bottle incident. The matter resolved, when the moderator moved the debate along to another subject.

Rubio's plan from the start was to paint Clinton as a figure of the past, and no better example of that would be, when the two stood side-by-side during the debates. His strategy was simple, deflect and talk about the future.

"Senator Rubio talks about the future, but he has record and beliefs suggests he's trying to replicate the past with a social record found in the 1950s and an economic record of the 1920s." -- Hillary Clinton

"The Secretary has a truth problem. The American people want someone who will be honest and upfront with them, not duck and hide on issue after issue, or delete email after email." -- Marco Rubio


"...I'm not the youngest candidate in this race, but I do believe I have the experience and the readiness to be president on day one. This is not a job for on the job training. I intend to hit the ground running." -- Hillary Clinton


"The best America has always been one, which looks to the future and realizes there are great possibilities to be met and opportunities to be seized. That's the America I want to lead." -- Marco Rubio

The debates largely did not alter the race. Rubio seemed to show his strongest performance during the town hall debate, and he did manage to narrow the gap between he and Clinton. The Vice Presidential debates were as expected a draw, between John Kasich and Jon Huntsman. As Election Day neared, Clinton and Rubio crisscrossed the country targeting the states of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire and Iowa. Clinton was taking nothing for granted, polls showed her with a 3 to 4 point lead, but as expected most Republicans had rallied around Rubio, and she needed to ensure that not only she won over independents, but kept her own base in tact. The election would be all about turnout.

Pres. Obama campaigns with and on behalf of Hillary in Ohio, Virgina, North Carolina and Nevada.

Frm. Pres. Bill Clinton proves he's still a rock star, drawing large crowds in Ames, Iowa.

Former rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigns in NH for Clinton, calling a Rubio Presidency "dangerous" and "backwards".

Both Romney and Christie campaign for Rubio in Pennsylvania and Ohio. "Hillary Clinton is yesterday's old news. Let's turn the page for America!"

Republican VP John Kasich hopes Ohio can deliver for him again.

Jon Huntsman campaigns in Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Nevada.

The decision: Hillary vs. Marco

RCP Average: November 2016

Hillary Clinton: 49.0%

Marco Rubio: 46.9%

Undecided/Other: 4.1%

[NHI]

19. The Fight

National polls in 2012 showed a close race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but in the swing states the election was seen heading in Obama's direction. Four years later, most national polls put Hillary Clinton ahead of Marco Rubio, but in the swing states, polls painted a different and closer picture.

After Obama's crushing win over Romney, many Republicans believed there to be a Democratic lock on the White House. The party had fallen down the path of the Democrats of 1970s and 1980s. Successful at the Congressional level, but out of step and out of touch with the majority of Americans at the national level. Throughout much of the Obama second term that seemed to be the case, though time has a way of healing all wounds, and while Republicans still lagged behind Democrats in key demographics (women, Latinos, the young), in four years time they had made up considerable ground, even in the face of a divided and congested primary, which delivered a brokered convention.

In the swing states Clinton and Rubio were running neck and neck, much which was attributed to the rallying of Republicans. While, many conservatives were frustrated by the loss of Mitt Romney and longed for a 'true conservative' to emerge as the nominee in '16, the crowded field prevented such an event from occurring. As a result, Republicans were more concerned with winning back the White House; as many Republicans privately lamented, if they lost in '16 the party itself might be finished.

Smart money was on a Clinton win, though it was assumed with be a hollow win. Narrow in size and unlikely a result of winning back party control of Congress. For Republican hopefuls a victory by Rubio was seen as coming in one of two scenarios. A deadlocked election, which some pundits believed could happen, or in a blowout. Not many speculated such an election result, but if Rubio were to prevail outright, it would be as a referendum by the silent majority on the direction of America during the past eight years. Rubio was hoping for it to be realized.

Election Day. Team Hillary had been preparing for the day from the start of her campaign back in April 2015. Despite an unexpected primary challenge from Bernie Sanders, Hillary arrived confident and ready as she returned to New York, after making final stops in Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. Turnout was key. Her team relied on the Obama model, believing it was the key to delivering a third Democratic term, but she was taking nothing for granted. She worked her heart out, up until the very end. She finished in New Hampshire, originally planning on speaking only in Concord, but decided to make a swing through the northern party of the state and then down to the seacoast, where she ended with a final rally in Portsmouth.

Nate Silver: Election Prediction

√ Hillary Clinton: 285

Marco Rubio: 253

Tossup: CO, UT, IA, VA, NC, FL

Intrade Prediction:

√ Hillary Clinton: 276

Marco Rubio: 262

Tossup: OH, CO, VA

Larry Sabato Prediction:

Hillary Clinton: 269

Marco Rubio: 269
Tossup: IA, CO, VA, UT, OH

"Alright, let's go win this one." -- Hillary Clinton.

Results: Dixsvile Notch, NH (November 8, 2016)

√ Marco Rubio: 6 (60%)

Hillary Clinton: 4 (40%)

Results: Hart's Location, NH (November 8, 2016)

√ Hillary Clinton: 26 (78.8%)

Marco Rubio: 7 (21.2%)

New Hampshire: Presidential Election Results < 1% Counted

Hillary Clinton: 30 (69.8%)

Marco Rubio: 13 (30.2%)

[tmthforu94]

Love this, though no way that putting Huntsman on the ticket would make Utah close. Maybe under 60%, but that's it.

[NHI]

Love this, though no way that putting Huntsman on the ticket would make Utah close. Maybe under 60%, but that's it.

I threw it in to truly be absurd. ;-)

should be an interesting election night....

[NHI]

20. Election Night 2016

The campaigns settled down. No more speeches. No more rallies. No more debates. The big moment had arrived. Election Night, in America. For Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio, the most important moment of their political careers was about to unfold; the election of the one who would be President.

Hillary Clinton: 0 (0%)

Marco Rubio: 0 (0%)

7:00 pm

"The usual states at this hour...Vermont, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Indiana. No surprises here." -- Rachel Maddow

PROJECTION: VERMONT

√ Hillary Clinton: 65.9% Marco Rubio: 33.5%

PROJECTION: SOUTH CAROLINA, INDIANA, KENTUCKY

√ Marco Rubio: 58.0% Hillary Clinton: 41.1%

√ Marco Rubio: 55.6% Hillary Clinton: 44.2%
√ Marco Rubio: 57.5% Hillary Clinton: 42.0%

Marco Rubio: 28 (51.1%)

Hillary Clinton: 3 (48.3%)

"Virginia and Georgia are too early to call. Georgia is expected to go for Rubio, though Clinton is performing at about the level of Barack Obama from four years ago." -- Rachel Maddow

"In Virginia, exit polls show a very close race between the Former Secretary of State and the Florida Senator." --- Rachel Maddow

VIRGINIA: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS EXIT POLLS

Hillary Clinton: 51.3%

Marco Rubio: 48.2%

VIRGINIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: < 1% Counted (Too Close to Call!)

Marco Rubio: 56.7%

Hillary Clinton: 42.9%

7:30 pm

PROJECTION: WEST VIRGINIA

√ Marco Rubio: 58.2% Hillary Clinton: 41.6%

"West Virginia goes for Mr. Rubio tonight. Mrs. Clinton at one point hope to keep the state in play, but tonight it goes once again the for the GOP ticket." -- Rachel Maddow

"As expected, North Carolina and Ohio remain too close to call. North Carolina exit polls show a lead for Mr. Rubio, but we do not feel comfortable projecting the state at this time. In Ohio, the all important battleground state, the home state of GOP Vice Presidential running mate John Kasich, Mr. Rubio is also ahead, but it is too early to make a projection." -- Rachel Maddow

NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: < 1% Counted (Too Close to Call!)

Marco Rubio: 53.4%

Hillary Clinton: 45.9%

OHIO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS: < 2% Counted (Too Close to Call!)

Marco Rubio: 54.9%

Hillary Clinton: 45.0%

MSNBC Hosts, Rachel Maddow and Chris Matthews await the results.

Presidential Election Results:

Marco Rubio: 33 (52.6%)

Hillary Clinton: 3 (47.0%)