Why was Oregon closer then Florida in 2004

[OSR stands with Israel]

Kerry won Oregon by 4.6%
Bush won Florida by 5.1%

And this was without Nader not having a huge impact in either states
 
These results are stunning, was Kerry's campaign that bad?

[sg0508]

Bush had a conservative draw in OR outside of Portland. 

In FL, the statewide GOP machine got it done.  Keep in mind that FL's demographics change every four years. It's not nearly the same state today as it was back then.

[CapoteMonster]

Bush had a conservative draw in OR outside of Portland. 

In FL, the statewide GOP machine got it done.  Keep in mind that FL's demographics change every four years. It's not nearly the same state today as it was back then.

Exactly. Bush won the Florida Hispanic vote by double digits. That couldn't happen today.

[Hydera]

There is a huge progressive base in Portland that swings elections towards democrats. But the suburban areas before 2008, in 2004 was 45% Kerry and 55% Bush. Which made the results very close.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

CNN said in 2004 that OR had both the most liberal and most conservative voters in the nation. Very polarized.

[Brittain33]

Also, Bush won nationally by 3 points...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OR, just like WI and NH will always stay within 5 points with the GOP candidates, with the Dem ahead.

The same timber voters like in MN and Ia, that flirt with GOP, makes it that way. Aside from Portland metro.

[Nym90]

In 2012 Oregon was 8 points more Dem than the nation as a whole and Florida was 3 points more GOP.

In 2004 Oregon was 7 points more Dem than the national average and Florida 2 points more GOP.

No mystery here. This is what happens when the GOP wins a 3 point national victory.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

In 2012 Oregon was 8 points more Dem than the nation as a whole and Florida was 3 points more GOP.

In 2004 Oregon was 7 points more Dem than the national average and Florida 2 points more GOP.

No mystery here. This is what happens when the GOP wins a 3 point national victory.

Yea, people really need to understand the concept of PVI. Reagan won Massachusetts in 1984 by 3 points, when winning nationally by 18. MA was not a swing state since it was still 15 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole.

[Nyvin]

OR, just like WI and NH will always stay within 5 points with the GOP candidates, with the Dem ahead.

The same timber voters like in MN and Ia, that flirt with GOP, makes it that way. Aside from Portland metro.

That doesn't really work with the 2008 and 2012 elections.   In 2008 Obama won Oregon by 16%, and nationally by 7%.   In 2012 he won Oregon by 12%, and nationally by about 4%.   That's about a 9% and 8% difference respectively.