Opinion of the coming SPÖ-FPÖ coalition ...

[Tender Branson]

As you may know (or not), the Austrian SPÖVP-government recently got heavily punished by voters in 2 state elections in Styria and Burgenland. They lost a combined 18% in Styria, while the FPÖ went from 11% to 27% there. In Burgenland, SPÖVP lost a combined 12% and the FPÖ went from 9% to 15% (the FPÖ is historically weak in this state).

The FPÖ gained mostly because of the immigration/asylum topic, with the Styria-FPÖ being very aggressive during their campaign and the Burgenland-FPÖ not so much and acting more like a future coalition partner.



Burgenland's SPÖ-Governor Niessl (42%) has said that "voters sent a clear message of no-confidence in SPÖVP" and has started coalition talks with the FPÖ (15%).

Burgenland is the smallest state (300.000 people) and therefore a moderately acting, weak FPÖ is not much a threat to the dominant SPÖ there.

Which brings us to the question: Do you think a SPÖ-FPÖ coaltion there is a good thing, bad thing, or do you see it as a non-factor ?

Some say that a FPÖ-coalition participation is good because it would defuse an ever-growing federal FPÖ because they are now in government responsibility and in the long run could damage the party.

Others say that opening the door to the FPÖ would set a precedent for further participation after coming elections (especially after the 2018 federal election).

Others say it doesn't really matter because Burgenland is small and meaningless.

Anyway, it would be the first SPÖ-FPÖ coalition since the early 1980s, but then under Norbert Steger the FPÖ was liberal and not nationalist like now.

What do you think ?

[DavidB.]

Even though I personally dislike the FPÖ thoroughly, I think it's a good thing for democracy that the SPÖ is willing to include a party like that in government. You need to take disappointed voters seriously in order for democracy to stay healthy: primarily by addressing their concerns, but also by including the parties they vote for, at least when these parties don't behave like total idiots/nazis/commies. This will foster moderation in public debate.

[Talleyrand]

What's happening in Styria then?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the SPÖ maneuvers intelligently and doesn't lose its soul over the immigration issue, it might be a good thing, especially as it will probably backfire on the FPÖ.

[DavidB.]

If the SPÖ maneuvers intelligently and doesn't lose its soul over the immigration issue, it might be a good thing, especially as it will probably backfire on the FPÖ.

I don't think the Burgenland government has anything to say on immigration.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

If the SPÖ maneuvers intelligently and doesn't lose its soul over the immigration issue, it might be a good thing, especially as it will probably backfire on the FPÖ.

Incredibly enough, I agree 100% with Antonio.
Let's not forget that when FPÖ participated in the national government last time, they lost more than half of their supporters.

[Tender Branson]

What's happening in Styria then?

On Sunday after the results came in, a continuation of SPÖVP was virtually guaranteed.

But now that the Burgenland-SPÖ has dissed the ÖVP there and went with the FPÖ, the Styria-SPÖ is now really nervous that the Styria-ÖVP will ditch the SPÖ there in favour of the FPÖ as revenge.

Interesting times for sure ...

We'll see what happens.

[Tender Branson]

If the SPÖ maneuvers intelligently and doesn't lose its soul over the immigration issue, it might be a good thing, especially as it will probably backfire on the FPÖ.

Incredibly enough, I agree 100% with Antonio.
Let's not forget that when FPÖ participated in the national government last time, they lost more than half of their supporters.

The negative federal ÖVP-FPÖ experience between 2000-2005 is likely not comparable though with the situation in a small state like Burgenland.

It's possible that the FPÖ only gets a couple not-so-important cabinet posts, like agriculture or something and that the FPÖ there actually turns out positively during the next 5 years ...

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ-FPÖ coalition in Burgenland is now official and was presented this afternoon.

The SPÖ will have 5 cabinet members, the FPÖ 2.

The FPÖ's 2 cabinet posts will be security (which is police, firebrigades, natural disaster management etc.) and state economy/tourism.

The topic of asylum/immigration/integration (which is not included in the security post) will remain in SPÖ-hands.

http://derstandard.at/2000017026666/Rot-blaue-Regierung-im-Burgenland-FPOe-erhaelt-eigenes-Sicherheitsressort

[Tender Branson]

Here's the English summary:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.thelocal.at/20150605/burgenland-looks-set-for-red-blue-coalition

[H. Ross Peron]

If the SPÖ maneuvers intelligently and doesn't lose its soul over the immigration issue, it might be a good thing, especially as it will probably backfire on the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

The most hilarious part of the Burgenland state election was the FPÖ campaigning against "illegal foreign workers in Austria, mostly from Eastern Europe which leads to wage dumping here".

And then it turned out that the FPÖ hired a Hungarian company to put up their election posters ...

[Kevinstat]

Which party lost more (as a percentage of the total vote) in the recent Burgenland election (from the previous Burgenland state election)?  SPÖ or ÖVP?  It would be kind of funny if the SPÖ used the results to justify dumping ÖVP if they had lost even more votes.  Of course, as the SPÖ is much bigger then the ÖVP in Burgenland, a bigger % loss of the overall vote could be a smaller loss proportionally.

[Tender Branson]

Which party lost more (as a percentage of the total vote) in the recent Burgenland election (from the previous Burgenland state election)?  SPÖ or ÖVP?  It would be kind of funny if the SPÖ used the results to justify dumping ÖVP if they had lost even more votes.  Of course, as the SPÖ is much bigger then the ÖVP in Burgenland, a bigger % loss of the overall vote could be a smaller loss proportionally.

SPÖ 2015: 41.92%
SPÖ 2010: 48.26% (-6.34%)

SPÖ lost 13.14% of their 2010 vote.

ÖVP 2015: 29.08%
ÖVP 2010: 34.62% (-5.54%)

ÖVP lost 16.00% of their 2010 vote.

...

So yeah, the SPÖ lost more in absolute terms (6.34 vs. 5.54), but the ÖVP lost more in relative terms when it comes to their original vote level from 2010.