Jeb's In

[Skye]

UPDATE 6/15: http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/15/politics/jeb-bush-2016-presidential-announcement/

*cries* Now let's see if he self destructs.



Original, 6/4http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/06/04/jeb-bush-plans-june-15-announcement/

About time. Clown car just keeps getting bigger and better.

[mds32]

Ugh why?!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Can't he just disappear?

[Potus]

Jeb's polling bump from his announcement is going to upset quite a few narratives here. This notion that Jeb is descending into joke candidate territory ignores the apples and oranges comparison. People like Carson and Rubio are only competitive as long as Walker and Bush go unannounced. When each of these top tier candidates announce, they'll vault ahead of the pack like we saw after Walker's speech in Iowa. Jeb and Walker, then everyone else relatively way behind. Scott Walker will then proceed to pry the "top tier" label off his campaign and in some way disqualify himself.

Hello, Bush 45.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Jeb's polling bump from his announcement is going to upset quite a few narratives here. This notion that Jeb is descending into joke candidate territory ignores the apples and oranges comparison. People like Carson and Rubio are only competitive as long as Walker and Bush go unannounced. When each of these top tier candidates announce, they'll vault ahead of the pack like we saw after Walker's speech in Iowa. Jeb and Walker, then everyone else relatively way behind. Scott Walker will then proceed to pry the "top tier" label off his campaign and in some way disqualify himself.

Hello, Bush 45.

If you're willing to throw another election to the Dems with Jebbo behind the wheel, by all means go ahead.

[Lincoln Republican]

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Jeb's polling bump from his announcement is going to upset quite a few narratives here. This notion that Jeb is descending into joke candidate territory ignores the apples and oranges comparison. People like Carson and Rubio are only competitive as long as Walker and Bush go unannounced. When each of these top tier candidates announce, they'll vault ahead of the pack like we saw after Walker's speech in Iowa. Jeb and Walker, then everyone else relatively way behind. Scott Walker will then proceed to pry the "top tier" label off his campaign and in some way disqualify himself.

Hello, Bush 45.

Aside from the part where he becomes President (which is still up in the air), I basically agree with this. Yes, Jeb has done all the things the rest of the clowns are doing (supporting socons of the most vile stripe,  denying global warming, etc) and had a couple stumbles of his own. He's still got money to burn, and an experienced machine backing him. Bush is in nearly as good a position as Hillary.

Jeb can still do himself in, via Perry-level performance or an unrecoverable gaffe or scandal. Walker had the potential to compete, but I don't think he's ready to be a national candidate. (Which doesn't mean he won't try.) The only other opposition he might face is if one of the other clowns really catches fire and then successfully bootstraps themselves into a real competitor. That will not be easy. Even Rubio is a long way from being in a position to challenge even a mediocre Jeb campaign.

[Torie]

Jeb's support is very soft and fragile. He's basically the default choice for many, pending further developments. There is nothing remotely inevitable about him at all. Heck, I might have been one of those voters in that position, if not aware that Kasich was out there. And Kasich has not been tested either, and may, or may not, end up being perceived as the best candidate. All these predictions are just silly really.

[The Mikado]

The GOP just isn't where Jeb Bush is anymore. Huge amounts of money and name recognition might make Jeb Bush a contender, but I very much doubt it'll get him to the nomination. Bush hasn't been in politics since 2006 and hasn't run an election since 2002. He's rusty and his instincts have atrophied.

[Likely Voter]

It's time he stopped the absurd 'if I decide to run' routine. The way he has been working with his superpac and raising money on the pretense of not running was starting to look like he was breaking FEC rules
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/politics/jeb-bush-taking-his-time-tests-the-legal-definition-of-candidate.html?_r=0

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[ChainsawJedis]

Curious as to whether his campaign logo will make heavy use of his last name.

[Mr. Illini]

Curious as to whether his campaign logo will make heavy use of his last name.

It will be a clip art photo of a bush.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Curious as to whether his campaign logo will make heavy use of his last name.

They could just say Jeb. Jeb Bush is kind of redundant.

[EliteLX]

Jeb's polling bump from his announcement is going to upset quite a few narratives here. This notion that Jeb is descending into joke candidate territory ignores the apples and oranges comparison. People like Carson and Rubio are only competitive as long as Walker and Bush go unannounced. When each of these top tier candidates announce, they'll vault ahead of the pack like we saw after Walker's speech in Iowa. Jeb and Walker, then everyone else relatively way behind. Scott Walker will then proceed to pry the "top tier" label off his campaign and in some way disqualify himself.

Hello, Bush 45.

People like you are what are going to put Hillary in in 2016. If you want a GUARANTEED, as in I will personally bet you $100 it is a SMOOTH sailing win of 125+ electoral votes, then vote Jeb.

[JonathanSwift]

Jeb's polling bump from his announcement is going to upset quite a few narratives here. This notion that Jeb is descending into joke candidate territory ignores the apples and oranges comparison. People like Carson and Rubio are only competitive as long as Walker and Bush go unannounced. When each of these top tier candidates announce, they'll vault ahead of the pack like we saw after Walker's speech in Iowa. Jeb and Walker, then everyone else relatively way behind. Scott Walker will then proceed to pry the "top tier" label off his campaign and in some way disqualify himself.

Hello, Bush 45.

People like you are what are going to put Hillary in in 2016. If you want a GUARANTEED, as in I will personally bet you $100 it is a SMOOTH sailing win of 125+ electoral votes, then vote Jeb.

I agree with you that Bush would lose, but I wouldn't bet money on a 125 EV margin. If Bush wins the Romney states plus Florida, he would lose by a margin of 303-235, or 68 electoral votes. Then again, Jeb last won an election in his home state a few weeks after Senator Hillary Clinton voted to authorize military force against Iraq, so who knows how much of an advantage he would still have there at this point.

[Maxwell]

Excellent! Splitting up the hawk vote so Rand can sneak sneak sneak.

[Donerail]

I'll be in Miami on June 15th for a college tour. Wonder if I'll see Jeb.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Excellent! Splitting up the hawk vote so Rand can sneak sneak sneak.

That is what I am hoping for.

[dudeabides]

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/06/04/jeb-bush-plans-june-15-announcement/

About time. Clown car just keeps getting bigger and better.

In the end, this Republican nomination is probably going to come down to two individuals: Former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush and Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker. Jeb Bush, by far, is the most accomplished Governor in the field, he also has experience in the private sector, and he has the knowledge of a wide variety of issues. He is the best prepared to be President. Scott Walker has done some great things in Wisconsin and has proved his critics wrong time and time again

 Consider the opposition:

1- Bobby Jindal - Bobby Jindal has been a great Governor of Louisiana, but with low approval ratings at home and a lack of communication skills in the digital era, Jindal is unlikely to be a front-runner.
2- Mike Huckabee - Huckabee's 2008 bid took him further than anyone expected. Many liked him as a talk show host, and he is universally liked, but his record in Arkansas on crime and some of his beliefs on social issues put him outside of the mainstream of Republican thought, or would cost the GOP a general election
3- Rick Santorum - Santorum did well in 2012 only because Huckabee's '08 voters had no place to go, but in the end, Santorum is socially conservative, but more moderate on economic issues, and to most voters both in the GOP and the general election, there is little room for that kind of candidate.
4 - George Pataki - Pataki is pro-choice, signed some of the toughest gun laws in the nation into law, and is taking credit for reducing crime in New York, when it was really Rudy Giuliani's huge reductions in crime thanks to his, and not Pataki's, policies that reduced crime. Pataki is too moderate for the Republican Party.
5 - Chris Christie - For two decades, New Jersey has seen higher taxes and jobs leaving the state as a result. Chris Christie had a chance to do something, and while he did some things well during his first term, he has signed BILLIONS in corporate welfare during his second term, and has been completely irresponsible with taxpayer dollars - between signing into law the Dream Act, expanding medicaid under Obamacare, and hiring a law firm to do it's own "investigation" into his role in "Bridgegate." New Jersey has seen it's credit downgraded 8 times since 2010.
6 - Marco Rubio - Senator Rubio has more baggage than most, and people who might support him are now with Governor Bush in this campaign.
7 - Ben Carson - Ben Carson has no experience in elected office, has compared Obamacare to slavery, has said the U.S. is becoming like Germany in WW2, and has said the second amendment doesn't apply to people living in cities. He needs a history lesson and some experience.
8 - Rand Paul - Rand Paul, on foreign policy, is a liberal who opposes the Patriot Act, opposed sanctions against Iran, and wants to be somewhat isolated from the rest of the world. There's a reason he's having fundraising problem, there is a reason his poll numbers are way down - it's because he's soft on national security and crime.
9 - Ted Cruz - We've had a President who gave a good speech but had no record of accomplishment. Why would we want the same thing, just of another party?
10 - Donald Trump - The king of corporate welfare detests open markets and a strong national defense, the only thing he doesn't detest is himself - he's a progressive and an egomaniac.
11 - Lindsey Graham - He might be right on SOME foreign policy issues, but he's basically a younger version of John McCain.
12 - Carly Fiorina - Smart, articulate, and probably electable - but where is she on the issues?
13 - John Kasich - Yawn
14 - Rick Perry - The economic growth in Texas started before he was Governor, and I don't think Republicans want a nominee who is for open borders. 

[Publius]

Odds on Bush making a Magna Carta reference on its 800th anniversary?  I'd do it if I were him; it would immediately set himself up as the natural anti-monarchist candidate to take down Obama/Clinton big government. It's not a fresh tactic, but, as just mentioned, he's just one of only a few viable candidates, and the other two (Walker and Christie) haven't declared yet.

As for his general viability, his nomination punts the greatest advantage the Republicans have in this election--dynastic fatigue.  Sure, he'll rally the red states, but the last two elections showed us that wasn't enough.  He'll try to pry open the Democrats' grip on Latinos, but while that might make the difference in his state of Florida, I don't see it making the difference anywhere else.

The Republican way to victory is through Christie, Walker, or a surprise mid-tier candidate catching lightning.

[Ebsy]

Odds on Bush making a Magna Carta reference on its 800th anniversary?  I'd do it if I were him; it would immediately set himself up as the natural anti-monarchist candidate to take down Obama/Clinton big government. It's not a fresh tactic, but, as just mentioned, he's just one of only a few viable candidates, and the other two (Walker and Christie) haven't declared yet.

As for his general viability, his nomination punts the greatest advantage the Republicans have in this election--dynastic fatigue.  Sure, he'll rally the red states, but the last two elections showed us that wasn't enough.  He'll try to pry open the Democrats' grip on Latinos, but while that might make the difference in his state of Florida, I don't see it making the difference anywhere else.

The Republican way to victory is through Christie, Walker, or a surprise mid-tier candidate catching lightning.

Great first post brah.

[Publius]

Odds on Bush making a Magna Carta reference on its 800th anniversary?  I'd do it if I were him; it would immediately set himself up as the natural anti-monarchist candidate to take down Obama/Clinton big government. It's not a fresh tactic, but, as just mentioned, he's just one of only a few viable candidates, and the other two (Walker and Christie) haven't declared yet.

As for his general viability, his nomination punts the greatest advantage the Republicans have in this election--dynastic fatigue.  Sure, he'll rally the red states, but the last two elections showed us that wasn't enough.  He'll try to pry open the Democrats' grip on Latinos, but while that might make the difference in his state of Florida, I don't see it making the difference anywhere else.

The Republican way to victory is through Christie, Walker, or a surprise mid-tier candidate catching lightning.

Great first post brah.

Thanks, man.  I actually just came on here to link to my generally awful Presidential Politics for America blog, but then the site wouldn't let me post it before I hit 20 comments.  Oh, sorry, Atlas, I THOUGHT THIS WAS AMERICA.

[dudeabides]

Odds on Bush making a Magna Carta reference on its 800th anniversary?  I'd do it if I were him; it would immediately set himself up as the natural anti-monarchist candidate to take down Obama/Clinton big government. It's not a fresh tactic, but, as just mentioned, he's just one of only a few viable candidates, and the other two (Walker and Christie) haven't declared yet.

As for his general viability, his nomination punts the greatest advantage the Republicans have in this election--dynastic fatigue.  Sure, he'll rally the red states, but the last two elections showed us that wasn't enough.  He'll try to pry open the Democrats' grip on Latinos, but while that might make the difference in his state of Florida, I don't see it making the difference anywhere else.

The Republican way to victory is through Christie, Walker, or a surprise mid-tier candidate catching lightning.

Chris Christie more electable than Jeb Bush?

How do you figure? In their re-election bids as Governors, both Bush and Christie made inroads with those who generally support Democrats - Hispanics, blacks, women, younger voters. The difference is, Bush didn't have to rely on incumbency for such support, he made those inroads in his first run for Governor - Christie did not. Also, Bush cut taxes, increased Florida's rainy day fund, presided over a credit upgrade for his state, enacted medical liability reform, and fought for sweeping education reform with choice and accountability. While Christie made some strides in the area of education, his state has seen 8 credit downgrades, record corporate welfare, higher property taxes, and sluggish job growth, contrary to Bush presiding over an era in which 16% of the jobs created in the entire country where created in Florida during his eight years.

You then look at what they are saying now. Jeb Bush's message is expanded economic growth and opportunity for all Americans, it's an inclusive message. Chris Christie is talking about strong leadership - but he has not shown such leadership as a Governor. When you press both men on issues, Bush is far more articulate and knowledgeable on the issues than Christie. Whereas Bush ran for Governor of Florida in 1998 and 2002 as a conservative, Chris Christie ran in both 2009 and 2013 as a moderate - now, running for President, Bush is sticking to his positions while Christie is flip-flopping in an attempt to win over conservative voters.

Bottom line: Bush's message is inclusive, his record is one he can run on, and he can reach out to those who don't generally support Republicans, Chris Christie is trying too hard to define himself as a conservative, when he has never run as or governed as one. In a general election, Bush's strategy is far more successful - it's the same strategy employed by George W. Bush in 2000.

Now, there is an argument to be made that Governor Walker is more electable than Governor Bush. Walker is a fresh face, he's won in a blue state, and he has appeal to working class voters. But, Scott Walker has never had to win over a significant number of latino voters critical to winning a national election. Also, on immigration policy, right to work, and farm subsidies, Walker is switching positions. I don't think Governor Walker has what it takes to make inroads with latino voters, which makes him less electable than Jeb Bush.

[JonathanSwift]

Odds on Bush making a Magna Carta reference on its 800th anniversary?  I'd do it if I were him; it would immediately set himself up as the natural anti-monarchist candidate to take down Obama/Clinton big government. It's not a fresh tactic, but, as just mentioned, he's just one of only a few viable candidates, and the other two (Walker and Christie) haven't declared yet.

As for his general viability, his nomination punts the greatest advantage the Republicans have in this election--dynastic fatigue.  Sure, he'll rally the red states, but the last two elections showed us that wasn't enough.  He'll try to pry open the Democrats' grip on Latinos, but while that might make the difference in his state of Florida, I don't see it making the difference anywhere else.

The Republican way to victory is through Christie, Walker, or a surprise mid-tier candidate catching lightning.

Great first post brah.

Thanks, man.  I actually just came on here to link to my generally awful Presidential Politics for America blog, but then the site wouldn't let me post it before I hit 20 comments.  Oh, sorry, Atlas, I THOUGHT THIS WAS AMERICA.

Is this it?

http://presidentialpolitics.blogspot.com/?m=1

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Why the hell does he go by Jeb? His actual first name (John) is far nicer.