Jeb's In

[JonathanSwift]

Jeb's polling bump from his announcement is going to upset quite a few narratives here. This notion that Jeb is descending into joke candidate territory ignores the apples and oranges comparison. People like Carson and Rubio are only competitive as long as Walker and Bush go unannounced. When each of these top tier candidates announce, they'll vault ahead of the pack like we saw after Walker's speech in Iowa. Jeb and Walker, then everyone else relatively way behind. Scott Walker will then proceed to pry the "top tier" label off his campaign and in some way disqualify himself.

Hello, Bush 45.

People like you are what are going to put Hillary in in 2016. If you want a GUARANTEED, as in I will personally bet you $100 it is a SMOOTH sailing win of 125+ electoral votes, then vote Jeb.

I agree with you that Bush would lose, but I wouldn't bet money on a 125 EV margin. If Bush wins the Romney states plus Florida, he would lose by a margin of 303-235, or 68 electoral votes. Then again, Jeb last won an election in his home state a few weeks after Senator Hillary Clinton voted to authorize military force against Iraq, so who knows how much of an advantage he would still have there at this point.

[JonathanSwift]

Odds on Bush making a Magna Carta reference on its 800th anniversary?  I'd do it if I were him; it would immediately set himself up as the natural anti-monarchist candidate to take down Obama/Clinton big government. It's not a fresh tactic, but, as just mentioned, he's just one of only a few viable candidates, and the other two (Walker and Christie) haven't declared yet.

As for his general viability, his nomination punts the greatest advantage the Republicans have in this election--dynastic fatigue.  Sure, he'll rally the red states, but the last two elections showed us that wasn't enough.  He'll try to pry open the Democrats' grip on Latinos, but while that might make the difference in his state of Florida, I don't see it making the difference anywhere else.

The Republican way to victory is through Christie, Walker, or a surprise mid-tier candidate catching lightning.

Great first post brah.

Thanks, man.  I actually just came on here to link to my generally awful Presidential Politics for America blog, but then the site wouldn't let me post it before I hit 20 comments.  Oh, sorry, Atlas, I THOUGHT THIS WAS AMERICA.

Is this it?

http://presidentialpolitics.blogspot.com/?m=1

[JonathanSwift]

Why the hell does he go by Jeb? His actual first name (John) is far nicer.

It's short for John Ellis Bush.

[JonathanSwift]

Why the hell does he go by Jeb? His actual first name (John) is far nicer.

It's short for John Ellis Bush.

I know what it stands for. Still a dumb nickname.

I don't disagree.