Jeb's In

[Bull Moose Base]

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/06/08/a-week-from-launch-jeb-bush-names-and-reshuffles-his-team/

Bush shakes up his staff but didn't pick up any of Carson's exes.

[Bull Moose Base]

Interesting fact from Twitter - Jeb is the only Bush to ever lose a race in Florida, that '94 one.

Well… that's a complicated one.

[Bull Moose Base]

I agree with that assessment of Bush's advantages. Bush's struggles aren't exactly the same as Romney in 2011 but they're roughly similar. Or as McCain 2007 but with much more money. On the other hand, he has tougher competition and I think this columnist is too dismissive of the drag immigration, Common Core and Bush fatigue will be on him.

Also, I agree if Bush has more momentum than Rubio heading into Florida, he's favored to pick it up, but because it's tentatively scheduled to fall after Super Tuesday, I'd guess a Bush win there is more likely to solidify his spot in a 2-man race than make him the presumptive nominee.

My wild guess on odds of being nominee would be like: Bush 40, Walker 30, Everyone else 30

Edit: I'm still a Rubio skeptic. His mini-surge looks like it's already fading before Bush has even used his massive war chest to attack him, and my gut is he won't hold up well to the attacks.