The Keys to the White House

[windjammer]

The 13 Keys to The White House

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With this model, who would win? Hillary or the rep candidate?

[windjammer]

Well according to me:
The democrats lost: Key 1, Key 3, Key 7, Key 11, Key 12
The democrats will get: Key 2, Key 4, Key 9, Key 10
Not sure: Key 5, Key 6, Key 13

So, it will depend about:
-the GOP candidate
-the economu

So I guess it will be a really tight election?

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

I could see Key 10 easily falling, if it hasn't already.

Key 2 is at least in play.

Key 6 is pretty much in the bag if only due to '08-'09, but Key 5 could still fall.

Basically, nothing else could go wrong for Democrats for them to win. Of the keys they've lost, the only one they could conceivably win back is 11.

[DS0816]

The 13 Keys to The White House

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With this model, who would win? Hillary or the rep candidate?

I have no real problem with Allan Lichtman. But, Key #01 is pointless. Incumbent White House party typically loses seats in the U.S. Senate and/or U.S. House. (His Key #01 focuses on the U.S. House of Representatives.) The sole exception from 1976 to 2014 (that's citing the last 10 cycles but looking at only the midterms) came in 1998 and 2002, when the incumbent White House Party gained seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. All others (1978, 1982, 1986, 1990, 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014) saw the opposition [White House] party gain seats.

[DS0816]

Adding to this (I'm on short time at this moment!), I looked at the realigning presidential periods of 1932 to 1964 (Democratic), 1968 to 2004 (Republican), and not so much with 2008 … (Democratic).

Three midterm years saw the incumbent White House party gain seats in the U.S. House of Representatives: 1934, 1998, and 2002. For the 21 election cycles of midterms, from 1934 to 2014, 18 of those 21 saw the opposition party be the one to have a net gain of seats in the U.S. House.

This is why I'm not into considering so greatly Key #01. Midterms are a habit of seeing the opposition [White House] party gain in at least some way. (For example, lots of Democratic gubernatorial pickups, in core Republican presidential states, were had in 2002. They included Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.)

[The Mikado]

Within the next month we're likely to see whether the planned rapprochement with Iran happens. Iranian detente would be a huge foreign policy victory for Obama and easily count as key 11.

[Oak Hills]

1. Democrats got five fewer seats in 2014 than in 2010.  False.
2. Clinton will not face a serious challenge in the primaries.  True.
3. Obama is not running.  False.
4. There will most likely be no significant third party.  True.
5. This one is unknown at this point.  Too soon to tell.
6. I think this one is true.  True.
7. Yes, the Obama Administration passed Obamacare and Dodd-Frank.  True.
8. I think the protests and riots over police brutality count.  False.
9. There don't seem to be any major scandals.  True for now.
10. The rise of ISIS counts as a foreign policy failure.  False.
11. Negotiations with Iran may or may not be successful.  Too soon to tell.
12. I'm really not sure about this one.  Unknown.
13. This one depends on who the Republican candidate is, which we don't know yet.  Too soon to tell.

So, keys 2, 4, 6, 7, and 9 are true.  That's five keys.
Keys 1, 3, 8, and 10 are false.  That's four keys.
Keys 5, 11, 12, and 13 are too soon to tell at this point.  That's four keys.

So, under this model, Republicans would need two of the too-soon-to-tell keys to go their way in order to win, according to my reckoning.  I don't think the economy is likely to go south between now and November 2016, so I predict that one will go Clinton's direction.  The other three I have no idea on. 

So I guess under this model it could go either way at this point.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Within the next month we're likely to see whether the planned rapprochement with Iran happens. Iranian detente would be a huge foreign policy victory for Obama and easily count as key 11.

Doesn't rapprochement with Cuba count as a major policy success?

[windjammer]

This will be a tight election

[SteveRogers]

Is this still a thing? 7-13 are pretty subjective and hardly binary conditions. This is nonsense.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

These keys are overrated. But here we go.

Lost: 1, 3, 12

Probably lost: 7

Up in the air: 2, 5, 10, 11

Should have: 4, 6, 8, 9, 13

[pbrower2a]

The 13 Keys to The White House

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With this model, who would win? Hillary or the rep candidate?

1. The Republican. No question: this is a slam-dunk.
2. Three or four states, and it is over for Hillary Clinton.
3. Clinton, of course, loses this key even if she promises to continue Obama policies or go beyond them.  No third term.
4. If there is a third party, then that will hurt Republicans more.
5. Ask in October 2016.
6. Democratic advantage -- huge. There would have to be a 1929-style Crash to undo this positive.
7. Even if it was early (Obamacare) it is huge.
8. Not yet, but I can see it happening if we see more cases as in Ferguson, Missouri.
9. The Obama Administration has been squeaky-clean so far, and that is unlikely to change.  
10. ISIS could maul America badly.
11. There was the Arab Spring, and more recently, some warming up to Cuba and Iran.
12. Probably not.
13. Certainly no war hero. Does any Republican nominee seem at all charismatic?  

Six for Hillary. Three are easy R, and I can imagine ISIS giving America a big, ugly mess not resolved until at least 2017. 5 and 8 -- ask in the autumn of 2016.  

[philly09]

By my count Al Gore only had four, possibly five false statements and he still lost.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

By my count Al Gore only had four, possibly five false statements and he still lost.

1. Gore won the popular vote, and these silly rules predict the winner of the popular vote.
2. Gore actually won.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Folks, the Democrats DO NOT get Key 7! The policy change has to happen in Obama's 2nd term, not his 1st. The policy change in Obama's 1st term counted for 2012. I can forgive some of the other errors made in this thread, but this one is pretty egregious.

With regards to Key 1,  the party holding the White House does NOT have to gain House seats in the midterm election to win Key 1, though that can definitely help. They merely have to keep their losses below their gains from the previous presidential election. If the Democrats had merely lost a mid-to-low single-digit number of House seats in 2014, they would have held the key because they did gain some seats in 2012.

Gore had five keys turned against him, but he won the popular vote, which is what the Keys predict.

[Ebsy]

Am I the only one that thinks this is pretty inane?

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Am I the only one that thinks this is pretty inane?

no

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Well according to me:
The democrats lost: Key 1, Key 3, Key 7, Key 11, Key 12
The democrats will get: Key 2, Key 4, Key 9, Key 10
Not sure: Key 5, Key 6, Key 13

So, it will depend about:
-the GOP candidate
-the economu

So I guess it will be a really tight election?

The Democrats would have #1 if it wasn't for gerrymandering. They have #7 (heath care reform) and #11 (bin Laden's takedown). Mark my words, they'll get #5, #6, and #13. The economic ones were largely because the economy was just so bad before Obama.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

They have #7 (heath care reform) and #11 (bin Laden's takedown).

Those happened in Obama's first term, hence they counted for 2012. They can't count for 2016 if they already counted for 2012. Right now, the Democrats lose both keys. I don't know why so many people in this thread are having trouble understanding this?

There's really no way they can win Key 7 with the GOP controlling Congress...they could potentially still win 11, though the clock is ticking.

[Ebsy]

They have #7 (heath care reform) and #11 (bin Laden's takedown).

Those happened in Obama's first term, hence they counted for 2012. They can't count for 2016 if they already counted for 2012. Right now, the Democrats lose both keys. I don't know why so many people in this thread are having trouble understanding this?

There's really no way they can win Key 7 with the GOP controlling Congress...they could potentially still win 11, though the clock is ticking.

I'm having a hard time understanding why you care about this subjective list of points.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Well according to me:
The democrats lost: Key 1, Key 3, Key 7, Key 11, Key 12
The democrats will get: Key 2, Key 4, Key 9, Key 10
Not sure: Key 5, Key 6, Key 13

So, it will depend about:
-the GOP candidate
-the economu

So I guess it will be a really tight election?

The Dems lost key 9. Benghazigate is tied to Obama, Obamacare itself is a scandal to this day in spite of its implementation.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Dems lost key 9. Benghazigate is tied to Obama, Obamacare itself is a scandal to this day in spite of its implementation.

What's the real scandal is that dunderheads like you have the right to vote.
Maybe the states instead of asking a photo ID from voters should ask them to take an IQ test.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

The Dems lost key 9. Benghazigate is tied to Obama, Obamacare itself is a scandal to this day in spite of its implementation.

What's the real scandal is that dunderheads like you have the right to vote.
Maybe the states instead of asking a photo ID from voters should ask them to take an IQ test.

Obama appointed Hillary as SecState. Hillary was his chief foreign policy adviser and Benghazi happened on his watch. That scandal still is in the national consciousness and will be discussed at length during the upcoming electoral season.

[publicunofficial]

The Dems lost key 9. Benghazigate is tied to Obama, Obamacare itself is a scandal to this day in spite of its implementation.

What's the real scandal is that dunderheads like you have the right to vote.
Maybe the states instead of asking a photo ID from voters should ask them to take an IQ test.

Obama appointed Hillary as SecState. Hillary was his chief foreign policy adviser and Benghazi happened on his watch. That scandal still is in the national consciousness and will be discussed at length during the upcoming electoral season.

lololololol

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

They have #7 (heath care reform) and #11 (bin Laden's takedown).

Those happened in Obama's first term, hence they counted for 2012. They can't count for 2016 if they already counted for 2012. Right now, the Democrats lose both keys. I don't know why so many people in this thread are having trouble understanding this?

There's really no way they can win Key 7 with the GOP controlling Congress...they could potentially still win 11, though the clock is ticking.

I'm having a hard time understanding why you care about this subjective list of points.

If you read the book, he goes into more detail about each key, so they're not as subjective as they appear to be at first glance.