Davis' shockingly bad performance in the north & west in 1924?
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  Davis' shockingly bad performance in the north & west in 1924?
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Author Topic: Davis' shockingly bad performance in the north & west in 1924?  (Read 1217 times)
Beet
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« on: June 04, 2015, 11:07:49 PM »
« edited: June 04, 2015, 11:10:20 PM by Beet »

I noticed that in many states, particularly those where LaFollette did well, John Davis starkly underperformed James Cox - the loser of the biggest landslide in American history.

Does this mean LaFollette took more votes from Democrats than Republicans - and a large share of Democrats of the time were actually progressive? Or more likely - were they voting strategically?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2015, 11:53:39 PM »

Actually, in La Follette's five best states (WI, MN, ND, MT, SD) all trended Democrat in that election if one looks only at the two major parties, In four of them, Cox had gotten less than 20% of the vote in 1920. So in the upper Mississippi/Plains, it was mainly Republicans leaving for the Progressives because there were so few Democrats on the ground.

Conversely, in the Pacific/Mountain areas which provided LaFollete's next five best states (ID, NV, WA, CA, WY), the Republicans largely held their own and most of LaFollette's support came from those who had voted Democratic or Socialist 1920.
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Beet
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2015, 12:06:11 AM »

I agree with the second part of your post, and the first part is technically correct as well, but in many of those upper Midwest states, Democrats had a greater drop off as a proportion of the percentage vote.

WI-71.1%-16.2% in 1920; 37.1%-8.1% IN 1924; So roughly 1/2 of both Republican and Democratic voters peeled off.
MN- 70.6%-19.4% in 1920; 51.5%-6.8% in 1924. So roughly 2/7 of Republican voters peeled off, but nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters did.
ND- 77.8%-18.2% in 1920; 47.7%-7.0% in 1924. So about 3/8 of Republicans peeled off, but over 6/10 Democrats did.
MT- 61.1%-32.1% in 1920; 42.5%-19.4% in 1924. So about 1/3 of Republicans and Democrats peeled off.
SD- 60.7%-19.7% in 1920; 49.7%-13.3% in 1924. So about 1/6 of Republicans and 3/10 of Democrats peeled off.

In 3 states, more Democrats proportionally peeled off than Republicans, and the other 2, about equal numbers peeled off; although in absolute terms, of course more Republicans did, as there were more of them.
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mianfei
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« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2017, 06:33:41 AM »

Looking at La Follette’s next ten best states (going down to 20 percent for La Follette statewide):

  • Idaho: 65.60 percent—34.34 percent in 1920; 47.12 percent—16.36 percent in 1924. So roughly half of Democrat voters and 28 percent of Republican voters peeled off
  • Nevada: 56.92 percent—36.22 percent in 1920; 41.76 percent—21.95 percent in 1924. So roughly a quarter of Republican voters and two-fifths of Democrat voters peeled off
  • Washington: 5596 percent—21.14 percent in 1920; 52.24 percent—10.16 percent in 1924. So only 6.65 percent of Republican voters went to La Follette, but about one half of Democrat voters did.
  • California: 66.20 percent—24.28 percent in 1920; 57.20 percent—8.23 percent in 1924. So two-thirds of 1920 Democrat voters peeled off, but only about one-seventh of Republican voters did
  • Wyoming: 64.15 percent—31.86 percent in 1920; 52.39 percent—16.11 percent in 1924. So roughly two-elevenths of Republican voters but one half of Democratic voters peeled off
  • Iowa: 70.91 percent—25.46 percent in 1920; 55.05 percent—16.64 percent in 1924. So roughly two-ninths of Republicans and one third of Democrats peeled off
  • Oregon: 60.20 percent—33.55 percent in 1920; 51.01 percent—24.18 percent in 1924. So roughly 15 percent of Republican voters and 28 percent of Democrat voters peeled off
  • Arizona: 55.61 percent—44.39 percent in 1920; 41.26 percent—35.47 percent in 1924. So roughly one quarter of Republican voters and one fifth of Democrat voters peeled off
  • Nebraska: 64.66 percent—31.25 percent in 1920; 47.09 percent—29.58 percent in 1924. So roughly 27 percent of Republican voters, but only one-twentieth of Democrat voters peeled off
  • Utah: 55.93 percent—38.84 percent in 1920; 49.26 percent—29.94 percent in 1924. So roughly one eighth of Republican voters but two-ninths of Democratic voters peeled off
  • Colorado: 59.32 percent—35.93 percent in 1920; 57.02 percent—21.98 percent in 1924. So only about 4 percent of Republican voters, but two-fifths of Democratic voters, peeled off

In the following states La Follette took more in absolute numbers from the Democrats (percentages referred to percent of total electorate):

  • Washington: 10.98 percent Democratic loss; 3.72 percent Republican loss
  • California: 16.05 percent Democratic loss; 9.00 percent Republican loss
  • Wyoming: 15.75 percent Democratic loss; 11.76 percent Republican loss
  • Oregon: 9.37 percent Democratic loss; 9.19 percent Republican loss
  • Utah: 8.90 percent Democratic loss; 6.67 percent Republican loss
  • Colorado: 13.95 percent Democratic loss; 2.30 percent Republican loss

I will say that some of this greater Democratic vis-à-vis Republican loss may reflect Davis’ extreme conservatism on women’s suffrage that would have made so many westerners, especially in the Pacific Northwest, unwilling to vote for him against any opposition. The Pacific States were not far from being akin to the one-party Republican bastions of Vermont and Michigan during the 1920s, and I am not sure how many of the Wilson voters there in 1916 were actual Democrats rather than highly progressive Republicans.
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vanguard96
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2017, 10:53:54 AM »

The economy was quite solid in 1924.

Coolidge used the power of the presidency to help farmers and others in the midwest to make his primary opponent Johnson look bad.

I think this and Coolidge's energizing of allies as well as the La Follette third party run with heavy focus on the upper midwest and a big vacuum of liberal democrats doomed Davis who was the first Democratic nominee from the South.

Also, Davis was not the favorite going into the primaries. McAdoo was despite his tacit support of the KKK and oil scandal was the son in law of Woodrow Wilson. Perhaps had Wilson not died McAdoo would have gotten through what was a disastrous Democratic convention with over 100.

Davis was a conservative and anti-prohibition so he could not find much favor in the west aside from the cities with a progressive and Republican in opposition.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2017, 01:37:22 PM »

Davis nearly won Arizona and New Mexico. Clearly not all of the West was a problem.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2017, 03:06:52 AM »
« Edited: June 25, 2017, 03:09:47 AM by Da-Jon Cory Booker-4-Prez »

The Whigs which were the federal rights GOP, with the exception of Hoover and Taft followed the tradition of intervention concerning black suffrage.

The Labor party not did nothing on this issue concerning blacks and states rights. As Thomas C Clark, Truman's justice expanded states rights. As FDR and Truman broadened federal rights.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2017, 11:04:21 AM »

The Whigs which were the federal rights GOP, with the exception of Hoover and Taft followed the tradition of intervention concerning black suffrage.

The Labor party not did nothing on this issue concerning blacks and states rights. As Thomas C Clark, Truman's justice expanded states rights. As FDR and Truman broadened federal rights.

Brilliant.
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