I agree with Shua pretty much.
His map is close to what I would do give or take Missora (did that intentially, blame South Park for that
) and Virginia.
Cleveland wasn't nowhere as universally loved in 1896 as he was 4 years earlier. In that election once he got the nom everyone knew it was over. Even if the People's party came in Cleveland had it in the bag.
In 1896 he was as toxic for the Dems as Dubya was for the Reps in 08. He let the economy fall apart without a care (due to his leadership style of course but his persona got thin among the public,) all the strikes happened and he sent the army in which never happened before (and was loathed for it,) he was done for good once 1896 came along. I think he knew that too and didn't try a lick.
But let's say he did. He wouldn't have stood a shot at the main Dem nomination thanks to the cross of gold speech plus the Populist wouldn't dare pick him. He was a gold/nat dem or else not run. He wouldn't be considered a logical choice to win due to how hated he was but I see him at least getting 5% if not up to 15%, no higher than that. No EV's but he wins some counties in the deep south as he replaces McKinley in some of the deep states that loath Republicans.
However let's say Cleveland won in 1888 or didn't run in 1892 it would be a different story. He would still be popular and respected. Then it would be a three horse race with prob a McKinley win like 1912 with Wilson due to the Republican split.
