Opinion of Alexis Tsipras

[Hydera]

Can someone reasonably explain how austerity will help the Greek people?

Because you can't overspend forever and have some kind of faith that "everything will work out in the end".

Greece has been overspending for so long that their economy has to grow at a much more sustainable pace without borrowing so much money.

Nobody is willing to pour money into greece to re-inflate their 2000's spending bubble.

[ag]

Can someone reasonably explain how austerity will help the Greek people?

Not that they have any options. It is either austerity within euro, or austerity outside of euro. They should be trying to bargain for some help in order to minimize the consequences for their citizens. But they are not doing that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's no happy ending to this story is there? Depressing.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Greece's situation reminds me of those "choose your own adventure" books I had as a kid, only every single choice you make leads to ruin.

[Beet]

There's no happy ending to this story is there? Depressing.

Greece is near bottom and will soon start to recover, no matter how badly they screw up. If they're ejected from the euro, they will suddenly hit bottom and have nowhere to go but up. If they capitulate, they will resume the upward trend they were on before Tsipiras.

[ag]

If they're ejected from the euro, they will suddenly hit bottom and have nowhere to go but up.

Oh, there is: they could dig. I would be pleasantly surprized if there is no major political instability within the next few years. They might go through some sort of a violent revolution.

[Bacon King]

There's no happy ending to this story is there? Depressing.

Greece is near bottom and will soon start to recover, no matter how badly they screw up. If they're ejected from the euro, they will suddenly hit bottom and have nowhere to go but up. If they capitulate, they will resume the upward trend they were on before Tsipiras.

In either case it might be slightly relevant to note that literal neo-nazis polled third place in the last election and still exist as a thing

[ag]

There's no happy ending to this story is there? Depressing.

Greece is near bottom and will soon start to recover, no matter how badly they screw up. If they're ejected from the euro, they will suddenly hit bottom and have nowhere to go but up. If they capitulate, they will resume the upward trend they were on before Tsipiras.

In either case it might be slightly relevant to note that literal neo-nazis polled third place in the last election and still exist as a thing

Not impossible, in fact.

[jaichind]

Greece's situation reminds me of those "choose your own adventure" books I had as a kid, only every single choice you make leads to ruin.

Yep.  What Tsipras does not seem to want to make clear to the Greek population is that you cannot vote to violate basic laws of the universe.  The Greeks cannot vote to change the gravitational constant of the universe.  The result is the same no matter what.  The burden of the Greek economic adjustment will be on the backs of the Greek lower and middle class and that is not going to change no matter what or who they vote for.  All Tsipras could choose is the same choice is the that of the Ghost-busters, choosing the form destruction that will be unleashed on them. 

[Hydera]

Im wondering about the much bigger implications of a grexit.

People on the "soft left" aka Keynesians like Stiglitz, Krugman claimed that greece's problems wasn't that it spent too much but only they weren't allowed to spend more and if they spend more then "their problems would of been gone compared to if they done austerity". While totally ignoring that for the past 30 years the greek state has been in a state of fiscal expansion through foreign borrowing.




Although the borrowing and spending did boost the greek economy a lot of it didn't flow into investments to create industries needed to repay that spending but as an clientism in return for votes.

For one of the many examples.

Greek pensions were very generous because instead of it being employer+personal contributions the state actually subsidized a lot of it. Even in 2012 despite cuts the greeks were very generous in pension spending as % of GDP.




http://lolgreece.blogspot.com/

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Basically the greek economy was the equivalent of a rent seeking oil rich arab state but instead of oil rich was borrowed wealth rich due to large amounts of borrowing. And they created a welfare state paid not with their own industries which of tourism and shipping would be unable to afford such expenditures on its own.

But back to Krugman and Stiglitz there has been a steady decaying of keynes original ideas. Keynes said to run surpluses in good times. Greece actually kept spending even in good times.

And Krugman and stiglitz said that governments should just keep spending "to boost the economy" but have backed away silently. especially when greece spent so much money but ended up in a crisis anyway by overspending.

And the final nail in the coffin is when they advocated for greece's debt to be forgiven. If spending more and more money didn't save the greek economy then perhaps the Soft Left or basically Keynesian-ism don't exactly hold all the answers/theres no one size fits all solution/its complicated.

Perhaps its time to stop treating keynes like a god and realize that theres no easy set of solutions to all economic problems.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Im wondering about the much bigger implications of a grexit.

People on the "soft left" aka Keynesians like Stiglitz, Krugman claimed that greece's problems wasn't that it spent too much but only they weren't allowed to spend more and if they spend more then "their problems would of been gone compared to if they done austerity". While totally ignoring that for the past 30 years the greek state has been in a state of fiscal expansion through foreign borrowing.

What the heck are you talking about?
Krugman is saying all these years that Greece is a special case and when he recently met with our political leadership he urged them to stay in the Eurozone because the alternative would be chaos.

He was against austerity for Spain and Ireland, countries who were running surpluses till the crisis of 2008 and their problems had to do with their banking systems, not fiscal profligacy.

[jaichind]

The Greek central bank came out with a report which warns of ‘uncontrollable crisis’ if bailout talks fail.   The SYRIZA speaker of the Parliament rejected the report.  Although just today it seems the Greek government has admitted it will become the first developed country in history to default on the IMF if its creditor powers fail to strike a deal. 

[© tweed]

Tsipras to meet Putin over bailout loan as fears of Greek exit from EU mount

Alexis Tsipras will travel to Russia again on Friday to meet Vladimir Putin as questions swirl over whether Moscow could extend credit lines to bail out the Greek prime minister’s embattled economy.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Can someone reasonably explain how austerity will help the Greek people?

Because you can't overspend forever and have some kind of faith that "everything will work out in the end".

Greece has been overspending for so long that their economy has to grow at a much more sustainable pace without borrowing so much money.

Nobody is willing to pour money into greece to re-inflate their 2000's spending bubble.

What? Greece before the crisis had one of the flimsiest welfare states of any EU member and a low percentage of government spending as % of GDP. The countries in Europe with the biggest welfare states have been the ones least affected by the Great Recession.

[Hydera]

Can someone reasonably explain how austerity will help the Greek people?

Because you can't overspend forever and have some kind of faith that "everything will work out in the end".

Greece has been overspending for so long that their economy has to grow at a much more sustainable pace without borrowing so much money.

Nobody is willing to pour money into greece to re-inflate their 2000's spending bubble.

What? Greece before the crisis had one of the flimsiest welfare states of any EU member and a low percentage of government spending as % of GDP. The countries in Europe with the biggest welfare states have been the ones least affected by the Great Recession.

They were overspending much more than what their tax revenues could pay for. Plus they lost so much revenue to tax evasion. A national sport in greece.




Other countries like in Scandinavia had a welfare state but the taxes and the trade surpluses to pay for their spending. Something greece didn't had which was the industries to have the revenue to pay for spending. Instead the greeks borrowed and borrowed.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Can someone reasonably explain how austerity will help the Greek people?

Because you can't overspend forever and have some kind of faith that "everything will work out in the end".

Greece has been overspending for so long that their economy has to grow at a much more sustainable pace without borrowing so much money.

Nobody is willing to pour money into greece to re-inflate their 2000's spending bubble.

What? Greece before the crisis had one of the flimsiest welfare states of any EU member and a low percentage of government spending as % of GDP. The countries in Europe with the biggest welfare states have been the ones least affected by the Great Recession.

They were overspending much more than what their tax revenues could pay for. Plus they lost so much revenue to tax evasion. A national sport in greece.




Other countries like in Scandinavia had a welfare state but the taxes and the trade surpluses to pay for their spending. Something greece didn't had which was the industries to have the revenue to pay for spending. Instead the greeks borrowed and borrowed.

Yes, Greece needed to crack down on tax evasion a while ago, and PASOK and ND were both essentially patronage vehicles. That doesn't provide rational or moral justification for throwing state assets to the vultures or discouraging consumption with a VAT increase.

[© tweed]

supposed Tsipras' wife has threatened to leave him if he strikes a deal with to remain in the Eurozone?  wtf?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/greek-pm-alexis-tsipras-faces-partners-departure-should-he-agree-to-eu-terms-over-greek-debt-crisis-10327912.html

EDIT: supposedly the rumor came DIRECTLY from the mouth of Francois Hollande.  it's probably just some stupid pro-ECB mudslinging BS

[Antonio the Sixth]

supposed Tsipras' wife has threatened to leave him if he strikes a deal with to remain in the Eurozone?  wtf?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/greek-pm-alexis-tsipras-faces-partners-departure-should-he-agree-to-eu-terms-over-greek-debt-crisis-10327912.html

EDIT: supposedly the rumor came DIRECTLY from the mouth of Francois Hollande.  it's probably just some stupid pro-ECB mudslinging BS

Well, Hollande knows something about getting in trouble with your partner.

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/greece-s-ruling-party-goes-to-war-with-its-own-central-bank

Greece’s Ruling Party Goes to War With Its Own Central Bank

The game theory part of me still feel this is a Tsipras tactic to convince the rest of EU that he is not rational and that it is best they back down from this game of chicken because "Mad Tsipras" will not.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/greece-s-ruling-party-goes-to-war-with-its-own-central-bank

Greece’s Ruling Party Goes to War With Its Own Central Bank

The game theory part of me still feel this is a Tsipras tactic to convince the rest of EU that he is not rational and that it is best they back down from this game of chicken because "Mad Tsipras" will not.

That would be giving Tsipras too much credit. The truth is probably that his entire negotiating tactic until now has been a huge improvisation. He and his government have no clue what they want and what they do.

[Hydera]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/greece-s-ruling-party-goes-to-war-with-its-own-central-bank

Greece’s Ruling Party Goes to War With Its Own Central Bank

The game theory part of me still feel this is a Tsipras tactic to convince the rest of EU that he is not rational and that it is best they back down from this game of chicken because "Mad Tsipras" will not.

That would be giving Tsipras too much credit. The truth is probably that his entire negotiating tactic until now has been a huge improvisation. He and his government have no clue what they want and what they do.

He's stuck between a rock and a hard place. He can agree to the proposals by the EU in return for money to repay the IMF. Or default and leave the euro. Both choices will painful for greece. With the grexit being worse.  I think in the end he will put the proposals by the EU to a referendum and will go with whatever decision the majority chooses.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/greece-s-ruling-party-goes-to-war-with-its-own-central-bank

Greece’s Ruling Party Goes to War With Its Own Central Bank

The game theory part of me still feel this is a Tsipras tactic to convince the rest of EU that he is not rational and that it is best they back down from this game of chicken because "Mad Tsipras" will not.

That would be giving Tsipras too much credit. The truth is probably that his entire negotiating tactic until now has been a huge improvisation. He and his government have no clue what they want and what they do.

He's stuck between a rock and a hard place. He can agree to the proposals by the EU in return for money to repay the IMF. Or default and leave the euro. Both choices will painful for greece. With the grexit being worse.  I think in the end he will put the proposals by the EU to a referendum and will go with whatever decision the majority chooses.

He himself said just a few days ago that a referendum or new elections are not going to happen.
The political environment is too volatile and SYRIZA's big leads could easily collapse after the voters have a taste of what default really means.

[/]

FF

[Hydera]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-19/greece-s-ruling-party-goes-to-war-with-its-own-central-bank

Greece’s Ruling Party Goes to War With Its Own Central Bank

The game theory part of me still feel this is a Tsipras tactic to convince the rest of EU that he is not rational and that it is best they back down from this game of chicken because "Mad Tsipras" will not.

That would be giving Tsipras too much credit. The truth is probably that his entire negotiating tactic until now has been a huge improvisation. He and his government have no clue what they want and what they do.

He's stuck between a rock and a hard place. He can agree to the proposals by the EU in return for money to repay the IMF. Or default and leave the euro. Both choices will painful for greece. With the grexit being worse.  I think in the end he will put the proposals by the EU to a referendum and will go with whatever decision the majority chooses.

He himself said just a few days ago that a referendum or new elections are not going to happen.
The political environment is too volatile and SYRIZA's big leads could easily collapse after the voters have a taste of what default really means.

Im feeling that he's learning towards caving to the EU proposals since greece literally has no upper hand. If he will then he would probably put it to a vote because his party promised at the same time to not leave the euro and not implement any more austerity so he has to give them a democratic choice.

[ingemann]

Im feeling that he's learning towards caving to the EU proposals since greece literally has no upper hand. If he will then he would probably put it to a vote because his party promised at the same time to not leave the euro and not implement any more austerity so he has to give them a democratic choice.

I'm beginning to think it's too late even if Greece carve now. Personal I think the rest of EU just wait for the excuse, where they can make it 100% clear that the Greek government choose this. The Greek government main problem are that no one trust them to keep their word even if they say they will push the reforms through.