Is New Hampshire fool's gold for Republicans?

[Sasquatch]

Agreed (at least in a close election).

It's gone Democratic in five of the last six presidential elections, and it may have gone to Gore in 2000 if it wasn't or Ralph Nader taking a whopping 4% of the vote.

No.

Care to explain?  

Well, exit polls showed that Ralph Nader took many (I think it was a majority) of his votes from 1996 Reform Party voters (Ross Perot supporters) who were more likely to vote for Bush than Gore (also "proven" by the 2000 exit polls). Nader may have cost Al Gore FL, but probably not NH.

Nader didn't cost Gore New Hampshire. Gore didn't compete in NH. Bush was ahead comfortably in NH during the entire campaign. I remember one poll had Bush with a 10% lead over Gore. It was surprising that Gore came as close as he did to winning the state.

[Torie]

New Hampshire is a perfect fit for somebody like Fiorina, Bush, Rubio, Christie  or Kasich in that order, Cruz, Huckabee or Walker it's fool's gold😊

NH also was a "perfect fit" for Romney and McCain. Also, Bush and Rubio would get demolished there.

What got you so "obsessed," if that is not too strong a word, about NH?  Every election is different, and NH trended about 30 basis points to the "perfect" candidate  Romney as compared to the "perfect" candidate McCain, and perhaps NH is more sensitive than average to honesty issues, in which event to the extent NH voters sense Hillary is dishonest, perhaps that might push the NH Pub trend a bit farther in 2016. It's always dangerous to read too much into numbers with so few data points, and every election having its own dynamics. Oh a bit of NH is in the Birkenstock belt, and that belt does not like Hillary much. So maybe there might be something of a Pub trend there in western NH along the Connecticut River.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New Hampshire is a perfect fit for somebody like Fiorina, Bush, Rubio, Christie  or Kasich in that order, Cruz, Huckabee or Walker it's fool's gold😊

LOL, maybe Pataki, but seeing as he has no chance at getting the nomination.......

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH was almost won by Dubya in 2004. It will be a real pickup chance should Jeb get nomination, but the GOP party is punishing Jeb as it seems for crimes of his brother. Giving the county consecutive Dem terms.

As a new standard barrier is selected in Trump or Fiorina.

[Figueira]

New Hampshire is a perfect fit for somebody like Fiorina, Bush, Rubio, Christie  or Kasich in that order, Cruz, Huckabee or Walker it's fool's gold😊

NH also was a "perfect fit" for Romney and McCain. Also, Bush and Rubio would get demolished there.

What got you so "obsessed," if that is not too strong a word, about NH?  Every election is different, and NH trended about 30 basis points to the "perfect" candidate  Romney as compared to the "perfect" candidate McCain, and perhaps NH is more sensitive than average to honesty issues, in which event to the extent NH voters sense Hillary is dishonest, perhaps that might push the NH Pub trend a bit farther in 2016. It's always dangerous to read too much into numbers with so few data points, and every election having its own dynamics. Oh a bit of NH is in the Birkenstock belt, and that belt does not like Hillary much. So maybe there might be something of a Pub trend there in western NH along the Connecticut River.

I suspect that the expansion of the Birkenstock Belt (and some Democratic-leaning areas near Boston) into New Hampshire is a bigger force than whatever issues the Birkenstock Belt has with Hillary (which I don't think is much; most people around here are the sort that reliably vote, and when they vote they reliably vote Democratic).

[Devils30]

The carpetbagger issue did hurt Brown a decent amount. He ran behind Romney in Coos, Carroll, Grafton, areas farthest from Boston. It isn't fools gold but I expect it to be the D+1 it usually is unless GOP nominates someone moderate on social issues.

[Nyvin]

Look, NH voters voted for the diehard liberal over the moderate Republican in a big Republican year (and no, Scott Brown (who ran a great campaign and did very well in the debate) did not lose because of the carpetbeggar issue lol). I just don't see any Shaheen supporter voting for an even more conservative Republican in a presidential year. Romney and McCain, who were both pretty good fits for the state, got absolutely crushed there. I am moving NH to Safe D in my prediction. If the Democratic candidate is in danger of losing it, the election will be a 1980-style blowout. Face it: There is no path to victory for the GOP in NH anymore, and especially not for the gentlemen who are likely to win the Republican nomination.

I wouldn't call Shaheen "die hard" liberal.

[TarHeelDem]

At this point, yes. NH moderates and independents have likely been too alienated by the radical streak of the GOP.

[Higgs]

NH was almost won by Dubya in 2004. It will be a real pickup chance should Jeb get nomination, but the GOP party is punishing Jeb as it seems for crimes of his brother. Giving the county consecutive Dem terms.

As a new standard barrier is selected in Trump or Fiorina.

ATM Machine

[MT Treasurer]

New Hampshire is a perfect fit for somebody like Fiorina, Bush, Rubio, Christie  or Kasich in that order, Cruz, Huckabee or Walker it's fool's gold😊

NH also was a "perfect fit" for Romney and McCain. Also, Bush and Rubio would get demolished there.

What got you so "obsessed," if that is not too strong a word, about NH?  Every election is different, and NH trended about 30 basis points to the "perfect" candidate  Romney as compared to the "perfect" candidate McCain, and perhaps NH is more sensitive than average to honesty issues, in which event to the extent NH voters sense Hillary is dishonest, perhaps that might push the NH Pub trend a bit farther in 2016. It's always dangerous to read too much into numbers with so few data points, and every election having its own dynamics. Oh a bit of NH is in the Birkenstock belt, and that belt does not like Hillary much. So maybe there might be something of a Pub trend there in western NH along the Connecticut River.

I suspect that the expansion of the Birkenstock Belt (and some Democratic-leaning areas near Boston) into New Hampshire is a bigger force than whatever issues the Birkenstock Belt has with Hillary (which I don't think is much; most people around here are the sort that reliably vote, and when they vote they reliably vote Democratic).

This exactly. You need to look at the long-term trend (2000-2012), which suggests pretty bad news for the GOP. Also, I doubt that a state that gives Maggie Hassan a 70% approval rating cares much about honesty and trustworthiness of a candidate. All the Sanders supporters will coalesce around Hillary on Nov. 8, 2016 and she is going to win the women's vote by 20 points or so, like it or not.

Look, NH voters voted for the diehard liberal over the moderate Republican in a big Republican year (and no, Scott Brown (who ran a great campaign and did very well in the debate) did not lose because of the carpetbeggar issue lol). I just don't see any Shaheen supporter voting for an even more conservative Republican in a presidential year. Romney and McCain, who were both pretty good fits for the state, got absolutely crushed there. I am moving NH to Safe D in my prediction. If the Democratic candidate is in danger of losing it, the election will be a 1980-style blowout. Face it: There is no path to victory for the GOP in NH anymore, and especially not for the gentlemen who are likely to win the Republican nomination.

I wouldn't call Shaheen "die hard" liberal.

But the National Journal did. I really refer you to this article. It basically says that Shaheen is done if 2014 turns out to be a GOP wave. Well, we all know how that turned out for Republicans:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2014/01/15/why-jeanne-shaheen-should-be-nervous/

Hilarious. It basically proves that NH is a blue state lol.

Oh, Btw: Scott Brown did better than George W. Bush in 2000 and STILL LOST. New Hampshire is never going to vote for a conservative Republican again.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, they tried desperately to unseat Shaheen in a midterm election.

Mitt Romney thought he would win NH. But, NH goes 4 points for Democratic candidate.

Using Shaheen to describe Republicans' prospects in NH is as foolish as using Captio to describe Democrats' prospects in WV; both were exceptional candidates who had served their state for a long time and were extremely popular there.  Either would have been near unbeatable in most climates.

Nonsense.
Jeanne Shaheen lost the Senate race in 2002, back when she was much more popular than in 2014.

[ScottieF]

No, unlike Pennsylvania, which people still like to say is somehow a swing state.

[MT Treasurer]

No, unlike Pennsylvania, which people still like to say is somehow a swing state.

Except the fact that NH was more Democratic than PA in 2012. What makes PA safe D but NH a ultra-turbo-independent swing state? Try to explain it without using the words "white", "elastic", "independents" and "trend".

[Downnice]

I think for 2016 New Hampshire with a smart campaign is still up for grabs but honestly it leans Democrat


Pennsylvania however I believe is a full blown swing state that the GOP needs to win if Virginia continues the Democratic trend