Predicting the 2016 Presidential Election by Congressional District
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« on: June 07, 2015, 02:42:47 AM »

So I made this map which predicts how each district will vote in the 2016 Presidential Election



Feel free to discuss and post your own! 


This map was also featured on our unofficial Facebook spin-off page.  Remember to follow us if you haven't already!

https://www.facebook.com/FuzzybigfootsHistoricalElectionMaps?ref=hl
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2015, 03:56:10 AM »

Good work.  You should try predicting the early primaries by CD as well.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2015, 04:02:55 AM »

I do have a couple of suggestions on rating some of the districts.  Ark 2 I think should be put down to about a lean, Obama did come within 10 points in 2008 while losing state by nearly 20.  Others, I think NY 22 should be more of a tossup, with Hillary most likely on top of the ticket, maybe lowering chances of GOP wins in some of those Midwestern districts as well, but overall, extremely good map.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2015, 07:31:09 AM »

We must all remember that Congressional districts that look huge in scale mean no more than some that are not so impressive in size.

In New York State:


Congressional District 5                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,708                       51.88
Urban Total                                                       717,708                       48.96
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                      94.36%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        2.92
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       5.64%


Congressional District 6                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,707                       29.78
Urban Total                                                        717,707                       29.78
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                     100.00%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.00
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.00%


Congressional District 7                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,708                       16.16
Urban Total                                                       717,708                       16.16
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                     100.00%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.00
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.00%


Congressional District 8                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,708                       29.66
Urban Total                                                        717,671                       23.27
Urban Percentage                                                        99.99%                      78.45%
Rural Total                                                                 37                        6.39
Rural Percentage                                                         0.01%                      21.55%


Congressional District 9                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,708                       15.54
Urban Total                                                        717,708                       15.54
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                     100.00%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.00
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.00%


Congressional District 10                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,707                       14.25
Urban Total                                                       717,707                       14.25
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                     100.00%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.00
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.00%


Congressional District 11                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,708                       65.83
Urban Total                                                       717,708                       65.83
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                     100.00%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.00
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.00%


Congressional District 12                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,707                       14.79
Urban Total                                                       717,707                       14.79
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                     100.00%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.00
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.00%


Congressional District 13                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,707                       10.25
Urban Total                                                        717,707                       10.25
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                     100.00%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.00
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.00%


Congressional District 14                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,708                       28.29
Urban Total                                                        717,669                       25.83
Urban Percentage                                                        99.99%                      91.31%
Rural Total                                                                 39                        2.46
Rural Percentage                                                         0.01%                       8.69%


Congressional District 15                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,708                       14.54
Urban Total                                                       717,708                       14.54
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                     100.00%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.00
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.00%


Congressional District 16                                  Population               Land Area

Total                                                                  717,707                       78.37
Urban Total                                                       717,707                       78.14
Urban Percentage                                                       100.00%                      99.70%
Rural Total                                                                  0                        0.23
Rural Percentage                                                         0.00%                       0.30%

http://www2.census.gov/geo/relfiles/cdsld13/36/ur_cd_36.txt

There are four states smaller in population than any one of these twelve Congressional districts,  yet there are cattle ranches bigger in area than some of these Congressional districts. People vote; cattle don't.
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angryGreatness
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« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2015, 11:15:51 AM »

I'm betting Hillary carries CA-25. Obama nearly got it in 2012, and that district has only gotten less white since then.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2015, 01:35:09 PM »

I think MO-8 should be pretty competitive. It's the Bootheel of Missouri and Bill Clinton did well in '92 and '96 there. Hillary should campaign there.
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angryGreatness
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« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2015, 01:39:50 PM »

I think MO-8 should be pretty competitive. It's the Bootheel of Missouri and Bill Clinton did well in '92 and '96 there. Hillary should campaign there.

Claire McCaskill couldn't carry MO-08 running against Todd f**king Akin.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2015, 04:55:01 PM »

Good work.  You should try predicting the early primaries by CD as well.


Thank you.  Once we get closer to said election dates, I probably will.  

I do have a couple of suggestions on rating some of the districts.  Ark 2 I think should be put down to about a lean, Obama did come within 10 points in 2008 while losing state by nearly 20.  Others, I think NY 22 should be more of a tossup, with Hillary most likely on top of the ticket, maybe lowering chances of GOP wins in some of those Midwestern districts as well, but overall, extremely good map.

Thanks.  I thought about putting AR-2 as something other than "Safe GOP", but I think Hillary knows that the state as a whole is likely out of her reach and won't waste the time and money trying to win it.  And considering how Mark Pryor even lost the district (I think Miles said by about 6 percentages points or something), I doubt Hillary has a prayer.  
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2015, 09:42:29 PM »

My version:



Changes from yours were primarily instances where I thought you were relying too heavily on the district's congressional voting. For instance, I feel that IL-13 is more likely to go Dem than IL-12 because of the trends - 13 will see a jump in turnout from 2014 due to its heavy minority and college populations while 12's trends mimic what we see in the south really, being willing to vote for local Dems but increasingly anti-national Dems in recent decades and especially in recent years.

Same goes with some districts in upper WI and MI and MN. Opposite goes for some suburban districts that may be solid R locally but only lean or likely R on the Presidential level.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2016, 06:03:12 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2016, 06:49:56 PM by Fuzzybigfoot »

Given the latest developments in the presidential nominating contests for both major parties (with Trump effectively being the presumptive nominee for the Republican party, and Hillary Clinton heavily favored to win the Democrat's nomination) , I've decided to update my 2016 Presidential Election by congressional district map.   Ratings for each congressional district are determined through current poll numbers (state and nationwide) as well as other variable such as demographics and past election results (off the top of my head).



Hillary Clinton: 217 Congressional Districts

Donald Trump: 199 Congressional Districts

Too close to call: 19 Congressional Districts

I would like to stress that this map is just a screenshot in time, and that a lot of things could change in the next 6 months yada yada yada, but due to Hillary's significant polling leads in recent weeks I believe that she is currently favored to win a majority of our nation's congressional districts.  
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Devils30
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« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2016, 07:16:24 PM »

I think Hillary takes PA 6,7,8 and 15 against Trump. Also wins FL-18, VA-2, 10 and maybe WI 7,8.
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