Norwegian local elections, 2015
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Author Topic: Norwegian local elections, 2015  (Read 17706 times)
Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #25 on: August 12, 2015, 11:23:43 AM »

Sorry, should have specified: last poll. Labour are still 0,5 above their 2011 result.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #26 on: August 12, 2015, 11:27:41 AM »

Wow. Epic FrP fail then.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2015, 04:45:00 PM »



A true treat of a newspaper cover. From Fremover, the local newspaper in the northern town of Narvik:

"Narvik election campaign heats up:
- Paul called me a whore

- No, I said you're acting like one

Narvik politicians Paul Rosenmeyer (Conservative) and Trond Millerjord (Christian People's) at each other's throats"
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DavidB.
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« Reply #28 on: August 19, 2015, 05:04:53 PM »

LOL
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #29 on: August 19, 2015, 06:14:47 PM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Christians_(Norway)

Do they have any chances in elections? I mean if there is any place that they can actually win something?
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #30 on: August 20, 2015, 01:23:01 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2015, 01:43:26 AM by Viewfromthenorth »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Christians_(Norway)

Do they have any chances in elections? I mean if there is any place that they can actually win something?

They should win some seats on municipal councils, they may pick up some seats in county councils if they are lucky. Most of these gains will be in the counties of Hordaland, Rogaland, Vest-Agder and Aust-Agder - i.e. the Norwegian Bible Belt.

They will not get any mayors, nor are they likely to be a major coalition partner anywhere, however.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #31 on: August 20, 2015, 01:42:12 PM »

Respons for the Aftenposten and Bergens Tidende newspapers:

Labour 29,8 (-1,9 on 2011)
Conservative 25,3 (-2,7)
Progress 11,1 (-0,3)
Center 7,9 (1,2)
Liberal 5,6 (-0,7)
Christian People's 5,4 (-0,2)
Greens 4,8 (3,9)
Others (local parties etc) 4,2
Socialist Left 3,4 (-0,7)
Red 2,5 (1,0)

Jonas Gahr Støre (Labour leader) has been taking heavy criticism for his...uninspired debate performances.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #32 on: August 24, 2015, 06:41:35 PM »

While this election campaign has been dominated by national issues (OMG UNEMPLOYMENT IS APPROACHING FOUR! FOUR! PERCENT!!111) there have been some defining issues in the largest cities.

In Oslo, the dominating theme is "let's see who can catch their rivals making the worst lie". The Labour Party has pledged to introduce a municipal property tax (the only municipal tax allowed under current Norwegian law), and the Conservatives set up a calculator to let homeowners figure out how much they would pay under this new, "horrible" tax. Unfortunately it was found to be using entirely the wrong numbers, and threatening people with much higher taxes than the Labour Party's plan would actually entail. To even the score, Labour's Raymond Johansen made an outrageous claim that Oslo has the worst daycare coverage of all major cities in Norway. This was false, and the Conservatives pounced on it.

Other than that, the biggest development in the capital has been the Progress Party's elder statesman, Carl I Hagen shooting off his mouth, stating that Europe needs to do the same as Australia with the refugee boats coming across the Mediterranean (i.e. turn them back). The Christian People's Party's top candidate announced that his party will not be part of a city government with the Progress Party after these elections. I'll be interested to see how true that promise holds if the center-right can manage to hold on to a thread-bare majority.

In Bergen, the main issue has been the decaying standard of city schools. Not the standard of teaching, mind you - the actual school buildings. It seems like every week there is a new rat, mold or fungus problem. This led to a vote of non-confidence against the head of the city government in 2012. The center-right is fighting for their lives in this city as well, and the Liberal Party has announced that they will work with whatever side ends up with the most seats.

Trondheim is seeing smooth sailing. The center-right is trying in vain to point out a worrying municipal debt situation, but people are generally satisfied with the services the city is providing and the governing broad center-left coalition will cruise to re-election.

I haven't really seen many election themes coming out of Stavanger yet, other than the economic slowdown. As Norway's oil capital, the city has suffered heavily from the drop in prices over the past year. Over the summer, only 16 homes were sold in a city of around 125 000 inhabitants. People are not confident about the future, but it doesn't seem to have a very direct effect on the city's electoral politics.

In Tromsø, the center-left is almost certain to get the majority. In fact, Red may end up getting the mayor, as they are the second-strongest party to the left of center and Labour will want to concentrate on chairing the city government.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #33 on: August 24, 2015, 07:18:50 PM »

Interesting, thanks for your updates Smiley Blessed is a country that worries about mice and rats in schools.

This seems to become a typical "second-order-election turns into a midterm for a quite - but not extremely - unpopular government" election. It seems like Labour might be able to flip some big cities, which will be the story the newspapers will push for quite some time.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #34 on: August 25, 2015, 05:49:47 AM »

And now: a new scandal!

Political advertising on television is illegal here for some reason. Minister of Justice Anders Anundsen attempted to circumvent this ban by making a reportedly rather low-budget video about all the good things his department has done since he entered the job. What makes this a scandal is that he has used civil servants and tax money to do this. Although not actually political advertising, it is reportedly close enough that it is being treated as such by the media and other politicians.
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politicus
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« Reply #35 on: August 28, 2015, 06:56:36 AM »

Latest poll by InFact for tabloid VG:

Labour (Ap) 32.3
Conservatives (Høyre) 23.5
Progress Party (FrP) 12.5
Christian Democrats (KrF) 5.4
Liberal Left (Venstre) 5.2
Environmental Party The Greens (De Grønne) 5.2
Centre Party (SP) 6.1
Socialist Left Party (SV) 4.1
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DavidB.
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« Reply #36 on: August 28, 2015, 09:16:02 AM »

Seems like some people are trading the Conservatives for Progress.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #37 on: August 31, 2015, 02:49:06 PM »

A yowser of a poll (InFact for VG) in Tromsø, where Rødt have been performing quite well for some time, but never at this level:

Labour (Ap) 25,5 (-0,9)
Conservatives (Høyre) 18,0 (-18,0)
Red (Rødt) 15,0 (7,8)
Progress Party (FrP) 13,4 (0,4)
Socialist Left Party (SV) 9,4 (3,7)
Liberal Party (Venstre) 5,8 (2,0)
The Greens (MdG) 5,3 (3,5)
Christian People's Party (KrF) 3,2 (0,1)
Center Party (Sp) 2,2 (-0,2)
Others (Andre) 2,3 (1,7)
Changes are compared to last election in Tromsø.

Latest national poll by InFact for VG:
Labour 30,5
Conservative 22,5
Progress Party 14,1
Center Party 7,4
Christian People's 5,6
The Greens 5,3
Liberal Party 5,1
Socialist Left 3,8
Red 2,3
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #38 on: September 01, 2015, 10:07:36 AM »

National Gallup poll (changes vs. last election):

Ap -- 32.7% (+1%)
Høyre -- 25.5% (-2.5%)
Frp -- 8.2% (-3.2%)
Sp -- 7.2% (+0.4%)
SV -- 5.8% (+1.7%)
KrF -- 5% (-0.6%)
Venstre -- 4.6% (-1.7%)
MDG -- 5% (+4.1%)
Rødt -- 2.9% (+1.4%)

1,083 people were interviewed between 26 and 31 August.
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #39 on: September 08, 2015, 02:34:57 PM »

High school students typically have a mock election in the weeks before the real thing. Fringe parties typically score higher in these elections than in the real ones.

Here are the nationwide results, sans around 40 schools that haven't reported in yet:
Party   2015   2013   2011
Ap   31,9   23   29,8
H   16,4   28,2   24
FrP   10,5   15,6   16,5
SV   7,5   5   5
MDG   6,7   3,8   1,4
V   6,5   6,7   6,8
Sp   5,5   4,2   5
Rødt   4,8   3,7   3,6
Pirat   4,1   4,3   N/A
KrF   3,2   2,8   3,5
Andre   2,9   2,7   4,4

Overall, a big gain for the left (Ap+SV+MDG+Sp+R).
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joevsimp
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« Reply #40 on: September 12, 2015, 11:17:49 AM »


When do results start to come in, I found that aftenposten had the best results coverage for the Storting election in 2013 but i'm not sure if they're doing it in the same detail
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #41 on: September 12, 2015, 04:41:23 PM »

Believe me, they will cover it in the same amount of detail. NRK, TV2, Aftenposten and VG should all be good places to look for coverage. Results start coming in at 21:00 CEST on Monday.

Myself, I will be working at a polling station and am both unable to and banned from releasing any results until at least 23:00.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #42 on: September 12, 2015, 08:42:17 PM »

New nation-wide Gallup poll published today (changes versus the last election again):

Ap -- 31.8% (+0.1%)
Høyre -- 23.4% (-4.6%)
Frp -- 9.5% (-1.9%)
Sp -- 7.4% (+0.6%)
Venstre -- 6.6% (+0.3%)
SV -- 5.9% (+1.8%)
KrF -- 5% (-0.6%)
MDG -- 5.2% (+4.3%)
Rødt -- 2.6% (+1.1%)
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« Reply #43 on: September 13, 2015, 03:28:07 AM »

How is the government (in particularly Progress) reacting to the refugee crisis?
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Viewfromthenorth
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« Reply #44 on: September 13, 2015, 05:27:56 AM »

How is the government (in particularly Progress) reacting to the refugee crisis?


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Lurker
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« Reply #45 on: September 14, 2015, 03:50:06 PM »

For those wanting to check the results in the various counties and municipalities, the Newspaper VG has a rather nice site:http://www.vg.no/valgnatt/valg/kommune/

It should be relatively easy to navigate, even for those who don't speak Norwegian.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2015, 04:20:58 PM »

If Labour underperform, could Store be rolled after his unfortunate debate performance?
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DavidB.
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« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2015, 05:11:25 PM »
« Edited: September 14, 2015, 05:14:51 PM by DavidB. »

I'm curious as to what Frp's core "voter group" is, especially in a comparative perspective to other new-right parties. Is the fact that Frp advocates much more free-market policies (as opposed to PS, DF, and SD) reflected in its voter base, meaning less working-class support and more "angry 'hard-working' middle-class" support? If so, what characteristics distinguish Frp's voters from H's voters? "New money" as opposed to "old money"? I hope someone could answer these questions, even though they're not directly related to this specific election (yet certainly inspired by it) Smiley

Meanwhile, H's collapse in Bergen seems especially remarkable to me:
http://www.vg.no/valgnatt/valg/kommune/fylker/hordaland/kommuner/bergen/.
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politicus
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« Reply #48 on: September 14, 2015, 05:35:27 PM »


Yeah, Bergen has this multi-generational urbanites/old money/bourgeoisie culture element. It is a natural Høyre stronghold in many ways. Though, it may be a thing of the past.
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Lurker
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« Reply #49 on: September 14, 2015, 05:56:32 PM »

If Labour underperform, could Store be rolled after his unfortunate debate performance?

Nah, Støre is very popular within the Labour Party, has no notable rivals, and there is no obvious successor/heir-apparent.

And though he would have continued at any rate, Labour actually got a very decent result, 33%. While certainly much lower than some of the stratospheric numbers they polled after Støre became party leader, it does represent their best local election result since 1987.
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