Norwegian local elections, 2015

[DavidB.]

Does anyone know why the government is unpopular? Just because it's the government...?

[DavidB.]

That was the impression I had of this government as well. Being part of such a moderate government will doubtlessly hurt FrP in the next general election, although FrP supporters on the right of this government obviously don't have many options.

But the dynamics in the local elections will of course be different for FrP, who already hit rock bottom in 2011 due to the Utoya disaster.

[DavidB.]

New poll for TV2 by TNS Gallup:

Labour 32,2 (-5,2)
Conservative 26,5 (+3)
Progress 9,9 (-0,4)
Center Party 7,2 (+0,3)
Christian People's 5,0 (+0,3)
Liberal 4,5 (-0,8)
Greens 4,4 (+0,3)
Socialist Left 4,1 (+0,4)
Red 2,4 (+1)
Others 3,7 (+1,1)

Jonas Gahr Støre is facing criticism for his debating skills and lack of ideas.

Are the gains/losses based on the last poll or on the 2011 results?

[DavidB.]

Wow. Epic FrP fail then.

[DavidB.]

LOL

[DavidB.]

Interesting, thanks for your updates Blessed is a country that worries about mice and rats in schools.

This seems to become a typical "second-order-election turns into a midterm for a quite - but not extremely - unpopular government" election. It seems like Labour might be able to flip some big cities, which will be the story the newspapers will push for quite some time.

[DavidB.]

Seems like some people are trading the Conservatives for Progress.

[DavidB.]

I'm curious as to what Frp's core "voter group" is, especially in a comparative perspective to other new-right parties. Is the fact that Frp advocates much more free-market policies (as opposed to PS, DF, and SD) reflected in its voter base, meaning less working-class support and more "angry 'hard-working' middle-class" support? If so, what characteristics distinguish Frp's voters from H's voters? "New money" as opposed to "old money"? I hope someone could answer these questions, even though they're not directly related to this specific election (yet certainly inspired by it)

Meanwhile, H's collapse in Bergen seems especially remarkable to me:
http://www.vg.no/valgnatt/valg/kommune/fylker/hordaland/kommuner/bergen/.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, Bergen has this multi-generational urbanites/old money/bourgeoisie culture element. It is a natural Høyre stronghold in many ways. Though, it may be a thing of the past.

Interesting.

Rödt seems to have reached 14,6% in Tromsö, with 88% counted. Are there local factors at play, or is this the consequence of being a university town? One would expect MDG and V to have a better result...

[DavidB.]

Ap, KrF and V will most likely form the new city government in Bergen. This probably means that KrF gets the mayor. SV was also invited to join the talks, but declined the offer.

The three parties combined control 34 of 67 seats on the city council.

KrF and V, isn't that an awkward combination? Aren't there religion-state issues that play a role in local decisions?