Is there a potential VRA lawsuit out there for MD?

[Torie]

This was brought up in RRH, and so I played with a map, and came up with the below, and wrote this on RRH:

"I was unable to draw two 50% BVAP CD's around Prince Georges county containing a contiguous black population that were both 50%+ BVAP, but it certainly is possible to draw two BCVAP CD's over 50% (notice that the Hispanic population in the northern CD is about 20%, which given the relatively low Hispanic citizenship rates, pushes the BCVAP up over 50% - the southern CD is 50.9% BVAP). Since citizenship VAP is the relevant standard, and since there is but one black congressperson now in and around Prince George's county, I do see a potential lawsuit here, now that Section 5 of the VRA has been interred by SCOTUS. I don't think however that fixing the map to comply with the VRA will undo the Dem's MD gerrymander however, and net the Pubs another seat. Rather, It would just end Steny Hoyer's career."

Any opinions on this one?

[Skill and Chance]

Not necessarily relevant to this, but: If the Republican didn't gerrymander the whole Midwest, I would be completely fine with a Rep getting another seat in MD. In fact, they probably SHOULD have 2 seats.

Agree completely.  Would love to see the MD map get taken down, as long as VA and NC get taken down with it.

[muon2]

I'm not sure what requirements were applied on RRH for MD to have 3 black seats, but there are two plans I put together back in 2011.

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

Lets see ...

If the minority groups want 3 black districts, and Edwards likes Montgomery better than Anne Arundel, and the GOP wants 2 solid seats, and it's best to leave all the members in their districts,

... then have I got a plan for you.



The black-majority districts 4, 5, and 7 have BVAPs of 53.9%, 51.1% and 56.6% respectively.

The two GOP districts 1 and 6 were 56.6% and 58.0% for McCain. All other districts voted for Obama, and had an average Dem vote in 2006-2008 of over 56%.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm not sure what requirements were applied on RRH for MD to have 3 black seats, but there are two plans I put together back in 2011.

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

Lets see ...

If the minority groups want 3 black districts, and Edwards likes Montgomery better than Anne Arundel, and the GOP wants 2 solid seats, and it's best to leave all the members in their districts,

... then have I got a plan for you.



The black-majority districts 4, 5, and 7 have BVAPs of 53.9%, 51.1% and 56.6% respectively.

The two GOP districts 1 and 6 were 56.6% and 58.0% for McCain. All other districts voted for Obama, and had an average Dem vote in 2006-2008 of over 56%.

Interesting.  I presume the veto-proof bicameral Dem majority would never consent to #1, but I could easily see them drawing something like #2 if the current map is struck down.  It would be an improvement in compactness, if only a modest one.

[Torie]

Why on earth would the Dems draw that little gift to the Pubs, when this plan is just waiting out there to be drawn, to get right with the VRA, and still stick it to the Pubs?  Heck, my map is even prettier than you little exercise in grotesque erosity. I just do erosity light myself, and ignore county lines only where absolutely necessary. Well, one of your maps is about the same as mine when it comes to the eye candy quotient, but you still have that one offensive snake.

[Skill and Chance]

Why on earth would the Dems draw that little gift to the Pubs, when this plan is just waiting out there to be drawn, to get right with the VRA, and still stick it to the Pubs?  Heck, my map is even prettier than you little exercise in grotesque erosity. I just do erosity light myself, and ignore county lines only where absolutely necessary.

How Dem is your CD 7 (equivalent of CD 6)?  Delaney had a very close call last year under the current lines.

[muon2]

I wasn't claiming that the Dems would want any such thing. I was just responding to the comment that one couldn't get three BVAP-majority CDs in MD. I noted I didn't know the full context of RRH, but I'm sure they would have liked my 5-3 plan.

As you can see from my comments on the Oct 2011 map I was trying to be all things to everyone - 3 black seats, and keep all the 2011 incumbents in their CDs, including the Pubs in Pub seats. I thought it was pretty good given those constraints.

[Torie]

I wasn't claiming that the Dems would want any such thing. I was just responding to the comment that one couldn't get three BVAP-majority CDs in MD. I noted I didn't know the full context of RRH, but I'm sure they would have liked my 5-3 plan.

As you can see from my comments on the Oct 2011 map I was trying to be all things to everyone - 3 black seats, and keep all the 2011 incumbents in their CDs, including the Pubs in Pub seats. I thought it was pretty good given those constraints.

Fair enough. The upshot of all of this, is that there is not much motivation for anybody to file a lawsuit, but I digress.

[muon2]

One of the big issues I recall was the cluster of members who lived just outside of Baltimore city. They all expected to live in their district when all was said and done and that drove a certain amount of snakiness. Another goal for the actual map was to suitably fracture any jurisdiction so no local leader could emerge as a contender to the incumbents with a base intact.

[Torie]

Why on earth would the Dems draw that little gift to the Pubs, when this plan is just waiting out there to be drawn, to get right with the VRA, and still stick it to the Pubs?  Heck, my map is even prettier than you little exercise in grotesque erosity. I just do erosity light myself, and ignore county lines only where absolutely necessary.

How Dem is your CD 7 (equivalent of CD 6)?  Delaney had a very close call last year under the current lines.

57.0% Obama 2008. It could get up to 58% and a bit more, with some more precinct swapping with my MD-08, which is at 59.6% Obama 2008.

[muon2]

I found a plan that uses all of PG and Charles, and parts of Montgomery, Anne Arundel, and Howard to create 2 BVAP CDs at 50.8% and 50.3%. So there's no need to go into Baltimore City or County to get two BVAP majority CDs. If there's any utility, I'll post it.

[Torie]

I found a plan that uses all of PG and Charles, and parts of Montgomery, Anne Arundel, and Howard to create 2 BVAP CDs at 50.8% and 50.3%. So there's no need to go into Baltimore City or County to get two BVAP majority CDs. If there's any utility, I'll post it.

This plan? 

[muon2]

I found a plan that uses all of PG and Charles, and parts of Montgomery, Anne Arundel, and Howard to create 2 BVAP CDs at 50.8% and 50.3%. So there's no need to go into Baltimore City or County to get two BVAP majority CDs. If there's any utility, I'll post it.

This plan? 

Mine is quite similar, so the utility of my adding one is zero.

[ilikeverin]

I found a plan that uses all of PG and Charles, and parts of Montgomery, Anne Arundel, and Howard to create 2 BVAP CDs at 50.8% and 50.3%. So there's no need to go into Baltimore City or County to get two BVAP majority CDs. If there's any utility, I'll post it.

This plan? 

Oooh, I kind of like that inside-the-Beltway/outside-the-Beltway orientation of the PG bits in this one.  If you're going to have a district that straddles the boundary, the red district is a relatively sensible MoCo/PG mix.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not necessarily relevant to this, but: If the Republican didn't gerrymander the whole Midwest, I would be completely fine with a Rep getting another seat in MD. In fact, they probably SHOULD have 2 seats.

Agree completely.  Would love to see the MD map get taken down, as long as VA and NC get taken down with it.

And FL, TX, GA, MI, OH, and PA. Seems like a fair trade.

[Skill and Chance]

Not necessarily relevant to this, but: If the Republican didn't gerrymander the whole Midwest, I would be completely fine with a Rep getting another seat in MD. In fact, they probably SHOULD have 2 seats.

Agree completely.  Would love to see the MD map get taken down, as long as VA and NC get taken down with it.

And FL, TX, GA, MI, OH, and PA. Seems like a fair trade.

FL is officially "fair" but the Dems are just so concentrated there that 17R/10D doesn't even require a gerrymander.