How did Reagan Democrats vote post Reagan?
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  How did Reagan Democrats vote post Reagan?
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Author Topic: How did Reagan Democrats vote post Reagan?  (Read 5038 times)
Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« on: June 11, 2015, 03:47:55 AM »

My guess
1988: Lean Bush
1992: Lean Clinton
1996: Strong Clinton
2000: 50/50
2004: 50/50
2008: Lean McCain
2012: Lean Romney
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2015, 04:39:21 AM »

Straight-ticket R for the most part. The Reagan Democrats weren't the people that the media refers to as Reagan Democrats. They were in fact mostly Dixiecrats who voted for Reagan, but continued to register as Democrats and vote for Dixiecrats at the local level into the 90s and 2000s.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2015, 08:39:30 AM »

Straight-ticket R for the most part. The Reagan Democrats weren't the people that the media refers to as Reagan Democrats. They were in fact mostly Dixiecrats who voted for Reagan, but continued to register as Democrats and vote for Dixiecrats at the local level into the 90s and 2000s.

Hasn't this forum pointed out several times that the "real" Reagan Democrats were White ethnic workers in the North?  I mean Reagan BARELY won the South in 1980, and looking at the county results, his strength came overwhelmingly from the emerging GOP suburbs and urban areas.  Carter won the rural South.

Yes, he crushed Mondale in the South in '84, but he crushed him everywhere else that year, too...
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2015, 10:01:37 AM »

After 84:

Strong Bush
Lean Clinton
Lean Clinton
Lean Bush
Lean Bush
Strong McCain
Strong Romney

I tend to think of a blue-collar, white, poor to middle class worker from Ohio or Pennsylvania when I think of this.
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Nym90
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2015, 10:53:55 AM »

Stan Greenberg did a lengthy study on this focused on Macomb County, MI, which he concluded after the 2008 election.
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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2015, 12:43:50 PM »

Define "Reagan Democrat".
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Kevin
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2015, 01:06:07 PM »

Stan Greenberg did a lengthy study on this focused on Macomb County, MI, which he concluded after the 2008 election.

I think it depends,

In the South I think alot of white "Democrats" aka Dixiecrats clearly stuck with the GOP after 1980 (Except maybe for Clinton in 92 and 96 since he was a Southerner).

While it was extremely mixed in the Northeast and Midwest. I believe a place like Macomb County MI would be the one of the examples of that.
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Nym90
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2015, 01:31:16 PM »

Stan Greenberg did a lengthy study on this focused on Macomb County, MI, which he concluded after the 2008 election.

Here's his op-ed announcing the end of the study: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/opinion/11greenberg.html?_r=0
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2015, 01:36:26 PM »

After 84:

Strong Bush
Lean Clinton
Lean Clinton
Lean Bush
Lean Bush
Strong McCain
Strong Romney

I tend to think of a blue-collar, white, poor to middle class worker from Ohio or Pennsylvania when I think of this.

Could be a working class Irish Catholic from New York or Boston also. I don't think it would be. Strong McCain even by your criteria though given the size of Obamas 2008 victory. In 2012 qa sizeable minority of these voters might have also voted for Obama just because Romney reminded them of there boss.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #9 on: June 11, 2015, 02:12:39 PM »

implying that "Reagan Democrats" have been a thing since 1988
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #10 on: June 11, 2015, 03:12:58 PM »

Straight-ticket R for the most part. The Reagan Democrats weren't the people that the media refers to as Reagan Democrats. They were in fact mostly Dixiecrats who voted for Reagan, but continued to register as Democrats and vote for Dixiecrats at the local level into the 90s and 2000s.

Hasn't this forum pointed out several times that the "real" Reagan Democrats were White ethnic workers in the North?  I mean Reagan BARELY won the South in 1980, and looking at the county results, his strength came overwhelmingly from the emerging GOP suburbs and urban areas.  Carter won the rural South.

Yes, he crushed Mondale in the South in '84, but he crushed him everywhere else that year, too...
This.  Most of the voters that the media refers to as "Reagan Democrats" never actually voted for Reagan and only started voting Republican in 2000 at the earliest.
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Sbane
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2015, 03:20:35 PM »

After 84:

Strong Bush
Lean Clinton
Lean Clinton
Lean Bush
Lean Bush
Strong McCain
Strong Romney

I tend to think of a blue-collar, white, poor to middle class worker from Ohio or Pennsylvania when I think of this.

I disagree with them voting Strong McCain or Romney. I would say lean McCain and Romney. Otherwise, there is no way Obama would have won those states.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2015, 07:59:50 PM »

The concept of the "Reagan Democrat" is very misleading. Given the heavy number of Democrats crossing over for Reagan has not been replicated by any GOP candidate, it should be assumed most Democrats who voted for Reagan have stuck with their party in the years since he exited office.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2015, 08:25:20 PM »

I remember people who fit The Media's description of "Reagan Democrats" were actually the most anti-Reagan folks around. Today they still vote Democratic.

I don't know why suburban Cincinnati would be different from someplace else.
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philly09
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2015, 10:58:39 PM »

The concept of the "Reagan Democrat" is very misleading. Given the heavy number of Democrats crossing over for Reagan has not been replicated by any GOP candidate, it should be assumed most Democrats who voted for Reagan have stuck with their party in the years since he exited office.

No, they simply changed their registration from D to R.

Here in South Philly, people switched to R after Frank Rizzo became a Republican.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #15 on: June 13, 2015, 03:27:05 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2015, 05:19:16 PM by TDAS04 »

Assuming the term refers to more urban/suburban, Northern, working-class, white Catholic voters:

1988: Tilt Bush
1992: Lean Clinton
1996: Clinton
2000: Tilt Gore
2004: Even
2008: Tilt Obama
2012: Even

Obama performed fairly well in such places as McComb County, Michigan, and Luzerne County, Pennsylvania.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: June 13, 2015, 04:53:54 PM »

Take a look at the 1984 county map of Southwest PA. Mondale won almost all those counties that have been trending heavily Republican post 2000.

Mondale was the pro labor traditional New Deal type of Democrat working class whites could identify with. Mondale was seen as a Liberal but not of the 'acid, amnesty, abortion' type like McGovern was. At least in western PA, working class whites seem to have stuck with the Democrats that year. The 1980's were also a time of drastic changes and the rapid deindustrialization of America. Factories were closing and laying off workers left and right and this was the beginning of the end of the Rust Belt.

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FEMA Camp Administrator
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« Reply #17 on: June 13, 2015, 05:41:58 PM »

I assume it would reflect America at-large, though maybe a few points to the right, for obvious reasons.
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DS0816
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« Reply #18 on: June 17, 2015, 04:52:32 PM »

My guess
1988: Lean Bush
1992: Lean Clinton
1996: Strong Clinton
2000: 50/50
2004: 50/50
2008: Lean McCain
2012: Lean Romney


Safest bet is just to look at the current 65-and-over voting-age group, correctly assume the overwhelming majority are white, and it's no mystery.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #19 on: June 17, 2015, 04:58:05 PM »

Take a look at the 1984 county map of Southwest PA. Mondale won almost all those counties that have been trending heavily Republican post 2000.

Mondale was the pro labor traditional New Deal type of Democrat working class whites could identify with. Mondale was seen as a Liberal but not of the 'acid, amnesty, abortion' type like McGovern was. At least in western PA, working class whites seem to have stuck with the Democrats that year. The 1980's were also a time of drastic changes and the rapid deindustrialization of America. Factories were closing and laying off workers left and right and this was the beginning of the end of the Rust Belt.



Exactly.  Reagan Democrat =/= Dixiecrat.

Looking at 1980 and 1984 county results, it's pretty obvious that your classic Dixiecrat voted for Carter in 1980 (Reagan lost all the rural counties in the South and barely gained his margin of victory from dominating the metro areas) and then abandoned the Democrats for Reagan in 1984 (but who didn't vote for Reagan in '84?).  Conversely (and ironically), as you pointed out, Mondale still won a lot of "Reagan Democrat" areas.
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Hydera
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« Reply #20 on: June 17, 2015, 05:23:38 PM »

Take a look at the 1984 county map of Southwest PA. Mondale won almost all those counties that have been trending heavily Republican post 2000.

Mondale was the pro labor traditional New Deal type of Democrat working class whites could identify with. Mondale was seen as a Liberal but not of the 'acid, amnesty, abortion' type like McGovern was. At least in western PA, working class whites seem to have stuck with the Democrats that year. The 1980's were also a time of drastic changes and the rapid deindustrialization of America. Factories were closing and laying off workers left and right and this was the beginning of the end of the Rust Belt.



Exactly.  Reagan Democrat =/= Dixiecrat.

Looking at 1980 and 1984 county results, it's pretty obvious that your classic Dixiecrat voted for Carter in 1980 (Reagan lost all the rural counties in the South and barely gained his margin of victory from dominating the metro areas) and then abandoned the Democrats for Reagan in 1984 (but who didn't vote for Reagan in '84?).  Conversely (and ironically), as you pointed out, Mondale still won a lot of "Reagan Democrat" areas.

Since you know more about it. Can you explain more into detail why Jimmy Carter in some southern states like arkansas still won a lot of rural counties but went on to lose those states as a whole?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1980&fips=5&f=0&off=0&elect=0

It always bothered me that there were states carter lost despite winning the rural areas when one would of thought the rural areas was much more important back then.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #21 on: June 17, 2015, 05:51:05 PM »

Take a look at the 1984 county map of Southwest PA. Mondale won almost all those counties that have been trending heavily Republican post 2000.

Mondale was the pro labor traditional New Deal type of Democrat working class whites could identify with. Mondale was seen as a Liberal but not of the 'acid, amnesty, abortion' type like McGovern was. At least in western PA, working class whites seem to have stuck with the Democrats that year. The 1980's were also a time of drastic changes and the rapid deindustrialization of America. Factories were closing and laying off workers left and right and this was the beginning of the end of the Rust Belt.



Exactly.  Reagan Democrat =/= Dixiecrat.

Looking at 1980 and 1984 county results, it's pretty obvious that your classic Dixiecrat voted for Carter in 1980 (Reagan lost all the rural counties in the South and barely gained his margin of victory from dominating the metro areas) and then abandoned the Democrats for Reagan in 1984 (but who didn't vote for Reagan in '84?).  Conversely (and ironically), as you pointed out, Mondale still won a lot of "Reagan Democrat" areas.

Since you know more about it. Can you explain more into detail why Jimmy Carter in some southern states like arkansas still won a lot of rural counties but went on to lose those states as a whole?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=1980&fips=5&f=0&off=0&elect=0

It always bothered me that there were states carter lost despite winning the rural areas when one would of thought the rural areas was much more important back then.

This question was not directed at me, but it also sparked my interest, and I'm going to try to find some stuff on the population distribution of those states at the time.  I do know that Reagan won most of the South by VERY thin margins (except for the "New South" states like Texas, Virginia and Florida which had trended Republican much earlier).
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #22 on: June 17, 2015, 06:55:47 PM »

Reagan Democrats should actually be called Nixon Democrats.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #23 on: June 17, 2015, 10:36:30 PM »

Reagan Democrats should actually be called Nixon Democrats.

Yeah, Reagan never matched Nixon's 33% share of the Democrat vote in 1972.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2015, 10:47:37 PM »

I remember in the era of Mondale and Dukakis a lot of people telling me the only time they ever voted Republican was Nixon in 1972. They voted for Mondale and Dukakis, but not McGovern.
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