Morning Consult polls for IA/NH/SC

[Tender Branson]

IA:

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http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150502_crosstabs_mc_IA_v1_AD.pdf

NH:

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http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150502_crosstabs_mc_NH_v1_AD.pdf

SC:

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http://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/150502_crosstabs_mc_SC_v1_AD.pdf

[Tender Branson]

The Iowa poll surveyed 905 registered voters, including 294 who said they planned to participate in the Republican caucuses. The New Hampshire poll surveyed 816 registered voters, including 349 who said they would vote in a Republican primary. And the South Carolina poll tested 906 registered voters, including 389 who said they planned to vote in the GOP primary. All three surveys were conducted online and by phone between May 31 and June 8.

The margin of error among all registered voters in each state is 3 percent. The margin of error for the Republican sample in Iowa is 6 percent, and the margin of error for the Republican samples in New Hampshire and South Carolina is 5 percent.

http://morningconsult.com/2015/06/new-polls-show-divided-gop-field-in-early-states

[Tender Branson]

Bernie Sanders at 30%+ in NH:

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http://morningconsult.com/2015/06/clinton-leads-in-early-states-but-sanders-popular-in-new-hampshire

[Tender Branson]

The sample for the NH Dem. primary is only 279, but it would be great if another poll could confirm the Sanders surge there ...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wonderful news! Sanders may have a shot actually after all. Just wait until he gets some traction from debates. His chances are vastly underrated.

Hopefully it's not Webb (or O'Malley!) who gets a slight bit of traction in Iowa to make it closer. Splitting the anti-Hillary vote would be terrible.

[Mister Mets]

Bernie Sanders at 30%+ in NH:

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http://morningconsult.com/2015/06/clinton-leads-in-early-states-but-sanders-popular-in-new-hampshire

That's pretty surprising.

I wonder if some who are sitting out the race because of Hillary are thinking of taking another look.

[IceSpear]

Bernie Sanders at 30%+ in NH:

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http://morningconsult.com/2015/06/clinton-leads-in-early-states-but-sanders-popular-in-new-hampshire

That's pretty surprising.

I wonder if some who are sitting out the race because of Hillary are thinking of taking another look.

Yes, some pollster nobody's ever heard of showing Hillary "only" leading by 42, 12, and 46 points is going to convince a magical "other" candidate to enter the race due to her clear collapse.

#ReviveDraftWarren

[Gallium]

An informative analysis of the pollster from a commenter on Political Wire:

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http://politicalwire.com/2015/06/14/bush-has-edge-in-new-hampshire/

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa

Dems

Clinton 54%
Sanders 12%
Biden 9%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

GOP

Walker 18%
Bush 10%
Huckabee 10%
Paul 10%
Christie 6%
Rubio 6%
Carson 5%
Trump 5%
Cruz 4%
Fiorina 2%

New Hampshire

Dems

Clinton 44%
Sanders 32%
Biden 8%
O'Malley 2%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

GOP

Bush 14%
Walker 10%
Paul 9%
Rubio 8%
Trump 8%
Christie 7%
Carson 6%
Huckabee 6%
Fiorina 5%
Cruz 4%

South Carolina

Dems

Clinton 56%
Biden 15%
Sanders 10%
O'Malley 3%
Webb 2%
Chafee 1%

GOP

Graham 14%
Carson 12%
Bush 11%
Walker 10%
Rubio 8%
Huckabee 7%
Cruz 6%
Christie 5%
Paul 5%
Trump 2%
Fiorina 1%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at Mrs. Inevitable leading 44-32.

[Mr. Morden]

The racial gap in South Carolina...

whites:

Clinton 55%
Sanders 19%
Biden 4%

blacks:

Clinton 58%
Biden 24%
Sanders 3%

[Tender Branson]

New Hampshire

Dems

Clinton 44%
Sanders 32%
Biden 8%
O'Malley 2%
Webb 1%
Chafee 0%

There's of course the chance that - because this MC outfit is relatively new - they are releasing 5 normal results and 1 SHOCKING result to grab attention for their newspaper.

On the other hand, the last NH poll for the Dems is 1 month old and Sanders might have gained heavily in the last weeks ...

[Eraserhead]

Even if the NH poll is off, it'll be worth some good press for Sanders.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why are people still putting Biden in their polls? Who thinks he's actually going to run?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Why are people still putting Biden in their polls? Who thinks he's actually going to run?

He's a sitting VP and he hasn't completely ruled it out.

I doubt he's running at this point.