2016 Republican Nomination Poll - Mid-June 2015

[Senator Cris]

Blue = officially announced candidacy.

1st half of June results:

Walker 24.1%
Rubio 23.3%
Bush 21.6%
Kasich 13.8%
Paul 9.5%
Cruz 1.7%
Santorum 1.7%
Graham 1.7%
Huckabee 0.9%
Fiorina 0.9%
Pataki 0.9%

Today or tomorrow I'll post the graphic

[BaconBacon96]

Why is Donald Trump not on this poll?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think I'll pass on walker, after his dumb Cameron comment. Kasich seems more likely right now.

[Bull Moose Base]

I think I'll pass on walker, after his dumb Cameron comment. Kasich seems more likely right now.

No one will care about the Cameron thing. Or do you just mean Walker is bound to say more stupid things? That seems likely. Kasich doesn't say stupid things so much but he's notoriously undisciplined about what he does say so hopefully that will be interesting. Walker's bigger problem is what might happen to his approval rating in the next 6 months.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I've been saying Walker for a while, but I'm now leaning towards it being Jeb.  Still far from an endorsement, though!

[Maxwell]

I'm leaning towards Marco Rubio at this point. Scott Walker is following all of Rick Perry's moves - entering the race late, making tons of gaffes, ect. His chances of winning the nomination are sinking by the day. And while Rand Paul has a strong chance in New Hampshire, I don't think he will win the nomination. And as the race goes on, I think Rubio will work as an alternative to Jeb Bush's beliefs without all of... the Bushisms.

[Del Tachi]

Looks like Jeb really benefited from a post-announcement bounce, haha

I think Jeb will look somewhat inevitable by the late Fall, the Iowa Caucus will turn out to be a clusterf**k (Ben Carson will win with 15.8% of the vote or something) but should sweep NH and SC. 

[WVdemocrat]

Huh? Where are all the Walker bots? I don't see them anywhere.

Anyway, as I've said for months now, Jeb will be the nominee. Most of the rest are clowns.

[Senator Cris]

Why is Donald Trump not on this poll?

Updated

[ShadowRocket]

I voted Kasich again, but I really don't know at this point.

[RINO Tom]

Sticking with Kasich.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sticking with Rubio.

[Suburbia]

Kasich.

[Oak Hills]

I'm switching back to Bush.

[EliteLX]

Bush will implode, and people will realize he's not really as conservative as made out to be.

Rubio will slide in.

[Bull Moose Base]

Huh? Where are all the Walker bots? I don't see them anywhere.

Anyway, as I've said for months now, Jeb will be the nominee. Most of the rest are clowns.

Yeah, what the hell happened to Walker here? He's been winning all these polls for months including one 2 weeks ago then suddenly he collapses here on the day a new poll comes out showing him leading nationally and Bush's favorables underwater. Walker is still the most conservative top-tier candidate when you include immigration. He's been having troubles back home for a few weeks but I haven't seen a single post about it and don't know if anyone here even knows about it. As far as gaffes, his  have been comparable to Rubio and Bush and anyway, gaffes don't matter much, certainly not this far out.

Bush will implode, and people will realize he's not really as conservative as made out to be.

I actually think most will discover he's more conservative than they thought for the most part. But Bush fatigue might be the end of him.

[tmthforu94]

Bush for now - his announcement was the strongest of any candidate so far.

[Dancing with Myself]

I'm for Trump right now.

Not satisfied with any of them. Huck's a shadow of his old self. Jeb's a bush and I'm tired of those. Everyone else is bland and un-inspiring.

Trump's crazy but what we need.

[The Other Castro]

Personally, I'm very excited by the fact that I have no idea who the nominee will be.

[GLPman]

Sticking with Rubio. It looks like Walker's support has collapsed.

[Mehmentum]

I honestly have no idea.  Right now I'm flipping between Walker and Bush, but I could easily see Rubio  succeeding as well.  I also think Paul has an outside chance if things go his way, and that there are bunch of candidates that could surprise.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Donald Trump FF!!!

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bush is performing way too well, IMO. It seems he hasn't coalesced the main behind the scenes GOP bigwigs as Romney managed to do.

I should reiterate: the Cameron gaffe isn't really important, but it betrays a certain clumsiness on the part of Walker. Kasich seems like a much less risky pick - more crossover votes, less polarising, more essential and winnable state etc.

[WVdemocrat]

But, of course, the Kasich bots are still alive and kicking.

Just because Atlas loves moderate heroes and thinks this man would perform well in the general, does not mean Republican primary voters will nominate him. If that were the case, in 2012 we would have had a Daniels/Huntsman (or Huntsman/Daniels) GOP ticket.

Kasich will drop out before Iowa. Mark my words. (Okay, he'll probably drop out after NH, but my point stands - he will not be the GOP nominee or come anywhere close to it)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh I loathe moderates (normal). I just think the base will forgive Kasich's failures to live up to the ideal GOP model if the Big Money  nudges them towards him (and Kasich seems more acceptable to the base than Bush).