How did California gain 7 electoral votes in the 1980's?
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  How did California gain 7 electoral votes in the 1980's?
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Author Topic: How did California gain 7 electoral votes in the 1980's?  (Read 3898 times)
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« on: June 17, 2015, 01:55:23 AM »

Between the 1980 and 1990 census, California had an astonishingly high growth rate. It went from 47 EV's to 54. People must have been flocking there in droves. In comparison, people say that Texas has a lightning fast growth rate, but it had a comparatively paltry growth of 3 EV's between 2000 and 2010.

What happened to cause such growth and why is it growing so much slower now?
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2015, 03:08:29 AM »

i honestly don't know. I think it may have had to do with silicon valley. Also, the cold war was on life support but still requiring extra manpower and the aerospace industry was doing pretty well. In the 90s with the end of the cold war, the aerospace industry atrophied and there were other factors in the early 90s that disturbed people (Rodney King, prop 187) and a lot of middle class (and oftentimes conservative) voters started moving out of state.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2015, 03:16:10 AM »

Well, they gained 8 in the 1950s.
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YaBoyNY
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« Reply #3 on: June 17, 2015, 08:36:03 AM »

One of the things you'll notice is that, as America's population grows larger, redistricting occurs on a much lesser scale, because you'll reach a point where you're going to need to see a movement of millions of people in order to produce such large effects.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #4 on: June 17, 2015, 08:40:15 AM »

One of the things you'll notice is that, as America's population grows larger, redistricting occurs on a much lesser scale, because you'll reach a point where you're going to need to see a movement of millions of people in order to produce such large effects.

There's this, and there is the fact that the decennial population growth rate has been slowing down, which tends to level off differences in growth between States.
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« Reply #5 on: June 17, 2015, 09:42:30 AM »
« Edited: June 17, 2015, 09:44:48 AM by Quadist »

I don't live there, but it is a nice place. Why wouldn't someone want to live there?
"It never rains in Southern California."

I haven't been to Oregon which doesn't seem to have as fast a growth rate as Nevada and Arizona. So, two out of three of the CA border states are also growing at a rapid rate, and I think it is obvious that it has something to do with warmer weather, but then I'm prejudiced; I hate winter.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2015, 10:35:42 AM »

"It never rains in Southern California."

Hence the perpetual drought and water shortages, yes.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #7 on: June 17, 2015, 11:56:24 AM »

The quick answer is that California had a great economy compared to the rest of the US from WWII to the late 1980s.  Once military spending went down after the Cold War, California went into an economic decline. 

I think they other problem is that people want to live in San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco.  The years of population growth there has made land prices high to the point that it deters people from moving there because they can't afford rent in the desirable areas.
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Hydera
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« Reply #8 on: June 17, 2015, 01:47:03 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2015, 05:43:46 PM by Hydera »

High population growth because the state rebounded quickly from the 1980 and 1981-1982 recessions.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1hsq

Which attracted lots of newcomers from all around the country and illegal immigrants. California was the destination for illegal immigration from south of the border, California was replaced only now by Texas as a larger inflow of illegal immigration since the Texas Economy has done better than California post-2001.


 Strangely enough lots of texans moved to Cali at that time for work which is the trend opposite of today. When the texas economy floundered in the 80s due to the crash of the oil industry which was soaring in the high oil prices of the 70s.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1hsq

You can see high population growth in the state in the 80's. Which dropped dramatically in the 1990 recession. Then a slight rebound in the large late 90's economic boom. And then dropping back to lows after the 2001 crash. Population growth has been muted since and the new job migration is to Texas rather than Cali.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1hsr


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Cali isnt doing as bad as people say it is.... Sad

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CANA
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snowguy716
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« Reply #9 on: June 17, 2015, 04:01:43 PM »

The 80s saw a bleeding of population from the rustbelt and plains while only the sunbelt and CA saw robust growth.  Everyone wanted to be a valley girl in the 80s.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2015, 05:35:28 PM »

California has also been a cultural institution from its founding. You could drop whatever problem's you had in the cold rainy east and a start fresh new life in sunny California. California has always been a trendsetter and the definition of 'cool'.

I think part of the reason why things started slowing down is the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the defense industry. Basically since 2000 there has been a negative population growth of movement from other parts of the country. A lot of it could be white flight with people moving to cheaper states, angry at the state's leftward turn or high immigrant population.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: June 17, 2015, 07:19:41 PM »

Hispanic and Asian immigration both grew significantly during the 1980s.  Places like Orange County were heavily white before, and then saw a huge influx of Mexicans, Vietnamese, and others during that time.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: June 17, 2015, 10:11:45 PM »

California gained 3.7 million people from 1970 to 1980 and Texas gained 4.3 million people from 2000 to 2010. The reason California gained 7 and Texas gained 4 is because the country was smaller in 1980 than it was in 2010.

I would argue it is slower now because its expensive to live there. That's a guess though. More people would probably rather move to Texas, where you get warm weather and an easier way of life.
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: June 18, 2015, 01:48:49 AM »

"It never rains in Southern California."

Hence the perpetual drought and water shortages, yes.

Yeah, that one isn't really a good thing.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #14 on: June 18, 2015, 10:07:36 PM »
« Edited: June 18, 2015, 10:10:32 PM by Kevinstat »

California gained 3.7 million people from 1970 to 1980 and Texas gained 4.3 million people from 2000 to 2010. The reason California gained 7 and Texas gained 4 is because the country was smaller in 1980 than it was in 2010.

I would argue it is slower now because its expensive to live there. That's a guess though. More people would probably rather move to Texas, where you get warm weather and an easier way of life.


California gained 7 U.S. House seats/EVs in the reapportionment following the 1990 census (population changes from 1980 to 1990, thus "the 1980s" (I can see how the title could have misled you)).  California only gained 2 seats/EVs in the reapportionment following the 1980 census.  How many million people did California gain (net) from 1980 to 1990?  I bet it was more than Texas did from 2000 to 2010.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2015, 06:01:58 PM »


California gained 3.7 million people from 1970 to 1980 and Texas gained 4.3 million people from 2000 to 2010. The reason California gained 7 and Texas gained 4 is because the country was smaller in 1980 than it was in 2010.

I would argue it is slower now because its expensive to live there. That's a guess though. More people would probably rather move to Texas, where you get warm weather and an easier way of life.


California gained 7 U.S. House seats/EVs in the reapportionment following the 1990 census (population changes from 1980 to 1990, thus "the 1980s" (I can see how the title could have misled you)).  California only gained 2 seats/EVs in the reapportionment following the 1980 census.  How many million people did California gain (net) from 1980 to 1990?  I bet it was more than Texas did from 2000 to 2010.
6.1 million.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2015, 06:12:14 PM »

People who had moved to California after WWII had not started to die off in significant numbers.  Someone born in 1920, who moved to California after service in the military would have been 60 in 1980, so California would just be seeing the leading cusp of increased deaths.  But their baby boomer children would have been producing X-Geners during that period.

If someone moves to southern California now, they would have to live in Apple Valley or Moreno Valley if they wanted to buy a house, or have a good job.
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« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2015, 10:26:42 PM »

In addition to the factors mentioned by other posters, some time in the last few decades California ran out of easy sprawl.  It's still a tremendously attractive place to live with a highly dynamic and productive economy, but thanks to asinine land use policies, the property market is caught between the rock of high demand for living space and the hard place of no where to add more living space legally. The result has been America's most densely inhabited urban areas, and an outflux of people who prioritize the ownership of personal space (driven as well by the reduction in California-centered defense spending and the de-industrialization of much of the state)

If California's land use policies were not so stifling , the population of the state would still be growing at a spectacular rate as people moved in to join the high-wage economy.
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