FL OH PA by Quinnipiac

[Tender Branson]

Hillary is very strong in FL.

No, according to the RCP average it's basically a tie when matched against Bush/Rubio.

On Mason-Dixon, she even trails.

What the polls show is that FL is and remains a swing-state.

[pbrower2a]

Q has had the strongest tendency to give the strongest chance to Hillary Clinton in Florida but not elsewhere.

Pennsylvania and Ohio will be decided on turnout. Republicans will need to break the willingness of late-deciders to vote to have any chance to win either state. That has been shown easy in the midterm elections of 2002, 2010, and 2014. A Presidential year? Such won't be so easy.

[MT Treasurer]

Hillary is very strong in FL.

No, according to the RCP average it's basically a tie when matched against Bush/Rubio.

On Mason-Dixon, she even trails.

What the polls show is that FL is and remains a swing-state.

Exactly. Hillary is not "unbeatable" in FL. I know that in 2013, people were talking about FL being solid D with Hillary at the top of the ticket, but honestly, that's a joke. If the election was held today, she'd probably win it by three or four points.

[eric82oslo]

A Bush/Rubio, Bush/Martinez or Bush/Sandoval match up against a Clinton/Castro ticket would be very interesting in the way that it would energize latino voters like never before. Perhaps latinos could be the new black in such a scenario, in the way that African American turnout for the first time was higher than white turnout in 2012 (although I doubt it as they start from such a low place currently).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton cares about the PA numbers, Jeb cares about his FL numbers. And then once QU polls Colo, the fourth swing state, compare that to her Ohio numbers, we will get a better feeling on how race is shaping up.

[eric82oslo]

There are far more than four swing states. Get real. At least you should add Virginia and North Carolina as well. Probably others too, like Iowa and perhaps New Hampshire (though I feel it's drifting too far to the left in order to be a real swing state this time around, unless the GOP elects a really moderate ticket).

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-06-15

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-06-15

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2015-06-15

Summary: D: 45%, R: 42%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[IceSpear]

Mixed bag as usual. The PA numbers are bad of course. FL numbers are really good, leading even the homestaters by an Obama 08 margin or greater.

The poll does confirm Kasich's strength in Ohio. He'd be a real threat if he somehow managed to make it out of the clown car.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is very strong in FL.

No, according to the RCP average it's basically a tie when matched against Bush/Rubio.

On Mason-Dixon, she even trails.

What the polls show is that FL is and remains a swing-state.

And according to Gravis, Kentucky and Washington are battleground states!

[TJ in Oregon]

Of most interest of course are the Hillary percentages, rather than the Pub percentages at this point. And it is interesting that Hillary's percentages are a tad higher in FL than PA and Ohio. Is it the Hispanic vote or something? Seeing the cross tabs, even with high margins of error, would be helpful. Oh, there are cross tabs, but not by ethnicity.  

Obviously it could just be randomly a more Dem leaning FL sample than the OH and PA samples, but I also think there is probably an age component to it. There have to be some non-negligible number of elderly folks who mostly vote Republican and have for the last decade but will vote for Hillary because last time her name was in the news they supported her. Thus she is a "good guy" to them even if the parties have traded places in their ranking. It might not be over any issue in particular, but if the race is Bush vs. Clinton, I'd have to think there are people out there who remember it the first time and will vote the same way they did in 1992.

[HillOfANight]

They have sample details at the bottom of the release. Florida 2016 is expected to be 67% white, compared to 83% for PA/OH. 2012 was around 67% white as well.