Christopher Ruddy: Jeb is Making Hillary's 2008 Mistake

[JonathanSwift]

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Read the rest here: http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/jeb-bush-hillary-gop-primary/2015/06/16/id/650854/

Discuss.

[Lief 🗽]

Jeb is seizing the "moderate center"? ROFL

[JRP1994]

Jeb is seizing the "moderate center"? ROFL

"Moderate center" is relative to the political spectrum in question. Who among declared Republican candidates is more moderate than Jeb, aside from Pataki?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Jeb is seizing the "moderate center"? ROFL

"Moderate center" is relative to the political spectrum in question. Who among declared Republican candidates is more moderate than Jeb, aside from Pataki?

Lindsey

[wildfood]

Obama did not succeed because he outflanked Hillary on the left. Obama succeeded because he was black and viable and his candidacy would be historic. Hillary was not outflanked, she was out glittered. 

I see no such candidate surfacing in the Republican field.

[Bull Moose Base]

Obama did not succeed because he outflanked Hillary on the left. Obama succeeded because he was black and viable and his candidacy would be historic. Hillary was not outflanked, she was out glittered. 

I see no such candidate surfacing in the Republican field.

She might have won without her Iraq War vote, but that's not a decision she made during the primary.

But it's a bad comparison because Bush is in a 5-way tie and barely breaking 10%. Also, his only real defiance of the base has been immigration (where Rubio is the same) and Common Core.

[bballrox4717]

Not really, Jeb is making Rudy's mistake: pretending that the early states don't actually matter.

[bedstuy]

Jeb would be extremely lucky to recreate the losing 2008 Clinton campaign.  And, that's also sort of rewriting history.  Clinton and Obama were the same on domestic policy, almost down to the smallest detail.  The same cannot be said about Bush and other the right-wing lunatics on the Republican side.

[WVdemocrat]

Obama did not succeed because he outflanked Hillary on the left. Obama succeeded because he was black and viable and his candidacy would be historic. Hillary was not outflanked, she was out glittered.  

I see no such candidate surfacing in the Republican field.

Here comes the idea again that Obama won because he's black. Give me a break. No, seriously.

Anyway, these two quotes sum up my thoughts on the matter:

Jeb is seizing the "moderate center"? ROFL

Not really, Jeb is making Rudy's mistake: pretending that the early states don't actually matter.

[Indy Texas]

We've seen this before.

1) Establishment Candidate runs centrist primary campaign and draws ire of base.

2) Conservative vote fragments, allowing Establishment Candidate to win.

3) Establishment Candidate inexplicably veers to the right during the general election.

John McCain did this. Mitt Romney did this.

[Ebsy]

We've seen this before.

1) Establishment Candidate runs centrist primary campaign and draws ire of base.

2) Conservative vote fragments, allowing Establishment Candidate to win.

3) Establishment Candidate inexplicably veers to the right during the general election.

John McCain did this. Mitt Romney did this.

Neither won the general election.

[RINO Tom]

We've seen this before.

1) Establishment Candidate runs centrist primary campaign and draws ire of base.

2) Conservative vote fragments, allowing Establishment Candidate to win.

3) Establishment Candidate inexplicably veers to the right during the general election.

John McCain did this. Mitt Romney did this.

And John Kasich won't.

[RINO Tom]

Jeb is seizing the "moderate center"? ROFL

Listen, the fact is that you're a very liberal person.  The vast majority of people don't look at the political spectrum from where you stand on it.  You can mock those folks and think they're stupid, or whatever you're into ... but there is a center of the Republican Party.  Period.  If there weren't, McCain, Romney and even Bush in 2000 for that matter would not have been the nominees.

[bballrox4717]

This article, like many other popular critics of Hillary's campaign, completely missed the point why she lost. Yes, she lost because of Iraq, but she also lost because Obama played the delegate game while turning out a record number of voters that traditionally never voted in primaries. Obama completely changed the way that primaries were won and lost. Never mind the fact that Obama beat Hillary with both liberals, rural voters and centrists, not just by running to her left.

I highly doubt that Jeb is going to lose that way. Right now, he's losing because the only two things that voters know him for right now is being a more moderate Bush, which as we know from polling, is anathema to both independents and conservatives.

[Bull Moose Base]

We've seen this before.

1) Establishment Candidate runs centrist primary campaign and draws ire of base.

2) Conservative vote fragments, allowing Establishment Candidate to win.

3) Establishment Candidate inexplicably veers to the right during the general election.

John McCain did this. Mitt Romney did this.

1) McCain and Romney didn't really run centrist primary campaigns. Both abandoned more moderate positions for the primary and Romney dislodged Perry from the lead by attacking him on immigration from the right.

2) I also disagree that a split conservative vote was a decisive factor in 2008, 12. The first 3 states were won by Huckabee, Romney and McCain with the latter two having more overlap in their appeal. True that maybe Fred Thompson kept Huckabee from winning South Carolina, but even if he had, McCain still narrowly loses it, picks up Charlie Crist's endorsement, presumably wins Florida solidifying establishment and big donor support in a two--man race against Huckabee who has no money and is no more embraced by economic conservatives or pundits than McCain.

In 2012, the idea of a vote split is belied by the fact that the more conservatives that fell out of the race, the better Romney seemed to do. Santorum's presence didn't account for Gingrich blowing Florida. That would be Romney's ad campaign destroying Gingrich's record. Maybe if Newt had dropped out then, Santorum would have won Ohio. But even losing it, Santorum still won a series of primaries heading into Illinois where Gingrich had no effect and Santorum's limited appeal and clumsiness finally caught up with him.

Walker and Rubio aren't nearly as underfunded and limited in appeal as Huckabee and Santorum were (which was actually the decisive factor). Also Romney's favorables and support among Republicans was much stronger than Bush's.

That said, I think, like McCain and Romney, Bush has a good chance to win both New Hampshire and Florida, if he has more momentum than Rubio by the time FL rolls around. If so, and he gets in a 2-person race, his chances obviously depends on whom he draws. If it's Walker, I expect a close Hillary vs. Obama -esque campaign. If it's Huckabee, Carson or Cruz, probably more like Romney vs Santorum.

[Mister Mets]

I don't think Hillary would have been able to pander effectively enough to the left to beat a guy who lacked her negatives.

She'd have won if her campaign management had been better. There's the famous story of the realization that Mark Penn had assumed that California was winner take all.

[Blair]

Jeb is seizing the "moderate center"? ROFL

Listen, the fact is that you're a very liberal person.  The vast majority of people don't look at the political spectrum from where you stand on it.  You can mock those folks and think they're stupid, or whatever you're into ... but there is a center of the Republican Party.  Period.  If there weren't, McCain, Romney and even Bush in 2000 for that matter would not have been the nominees.

Yes, and that centre has shifted since the 1950's, and that centre has shifted since the 1990s. Heck in 2005 people like Jeb, Rob Portman and Kasich were seen as being on the right of the party

[Mehmentum]

That said, I think, like McCain and Romney, Bush has a good chance to win both New Hampshire and Florida, if he has more momentum than Rubio by the time FL rolls around. If so, and he gets in a 2-person race, his chances obviously depends on whom he draws. If it's Walker, I expect a close Hillary vs. Obama -esque campaign. If it's Huckabee, Carson or Cruz, probably more like Romney vs Santorum.

Unfortunately for Bush, the non-Gravis polls give him a narrow to non-existant lead in NH, with Walker, Paul and Rubio right on his heels.  This isn't like 2012 where Romney basically had NH on lock.  

If Huckabee, Cruz, or Carson wins Iowa, I think 2016 would be a carbon copy of 2008, with one of Paul/Walker/Rubio (I'm envisioning Walker) playing the roll of Romney in New Hampshire.  I can even see Rubio making a Guliani-esque bid for Florida.

If Walker wins Iowa, Bush could be in trouble.  If Rubio wins Iowa, Bush could be in big trouble, because then Bush can't even count on Florida.  If Paul wins Iowa, that'll be interesting because even though he's disliked by the GOP establishment (like Cruz, Carson, and Huckabee), he is actually quite strong in New Hampshire.

[136or142]

More moderate:
1.Mike Huckabee (on fiscal issues)
2.Rand Paul (on civil liberties/foreign policy)
3.Bob Ehrlich (if he runs)
4.George Pataki
5.Chris Christie
6.John Kasich
7.Rick Santorum (on labor issues)
8.Lindsey Graham (on everything except foreign policy)
9.Mark Everson

So, half the field are more moderate than Jeb Bush on at least some issues.

[CountryClassSF]

No one knows how to ignore the base like the establishment GOP.  They've been doing it for quite some time now. Then they wonder why they have a turnout enthusiasm gap on election day.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

1. Roughly 31% of Republican primary voters describe themselves as either "moderate" or "liberal". In a currently crowded Republican field, Bush can definitely capitalize on this segment and win the primary.

2. The two issues where Bush is considered to deviate from his party are immigration and education, however his positions aren't that different than what many Republican voters state in polls.

[RINO Tom]

Jeb is seizing the "moderate center"? ROFL

Listen, the fact is that you're a very liberal person.  The vast majority of people don't look at the political spectrum from where you stand on it.  You can mock those folks and think they're stupid, or whatever you're into ... but there is a center of the Republican Party.  Period.  If there weren't, McCain, Romney and even Bush in 2000 for that matter would not have been the nominees.

Yes, and that centre has shifted since the 1950's, and that centre has shifted since the 1990s. Heck in 2005 people like Jeb, Rob Portman and Kasich were seen as being on the right of the party

What's your point (other than being upset by it)?  The "center" of the Republican Party in 2016 is all that is relevant to this topic, is it not?  Jeb Bush is at least painting himself as less conservative than Santorum, Cruz, Jindal, Trump, etc.

[WVdemocrat]

Jeb is seizing the "moderate center"? ROFL

Listen, the fact is that you're a very liberal person.  The vast majority of people don't look at the political spectrum from where you stand on it.  You can mock those folks and think they're stupid, or whatever you're into ... but there is a center of the Republican Party.  Period.  If there weren't, McCain, Romney and even Bush in 2000 for that matter would not have been the nominees.

Yes, and that centre has shifted since the 1950's, and that centre has shifted since the 1990s. Heck in 2005 people like Jeb, Rob Portman and Kasich were seen as being on the right of the party

What's your point (other than being upset by it)?  The "center" of the Republican Party in 2016 is all that is relevant to this topic, is it not?  Jeb Bush is at least painting himself as less conservative than Santorum, Cruz, Jindal, Trump, etc.

His point is that just because the GOP has moved far to the right doesn't mean America has.

Jeb is a moderate in the current GOP, but in the grand scheme of politics, he is as conservative as he ever was. The only way you can say he is moderate is by juxtaposing him with the current Republican Party.

[Phony Moderate]

Rubio in 2010 was seen in the same vein as Ted Cruz is today.

[wildfood]

Obama did not succeed because he outflanked Hillary on the left. Obama succeeded because he was black and viable and his candidacy would be historic. Hillary was not outflanked, she was out glittered.  

I see no such candidate surfacing in the Republican field.

Here comes the idea again that Obama won because he's black. Give me a break. No, seriously.

That is not any kind of an argument, only a dismissal.