How to win (for the Pubs) in 2016 (let's go fishing in PA)

[Torie]

This is an extraordinarily well written and interesting and data filled article that is well worth reading. It is always a pleasure to find such articles, since in my old age, most of what I pull up is really just spam/spin, non data based opinion and/or just stating the obvious, etc.

And yes, much of it is all about PA, aka as the Pub "fool's gold" state. But is it really?  One hard data kernel of interest in particular, among many, is that Philadelphia has a considerably higher percentage of eligible voters registered than most of the state (the Dem machine there is real and effective, and the city has microscopic precincts to boot, so the voting booth is never more than a block away in the inner city), while the percentages are relatively low in some of those heavily Pub trending more rural counties in western PA (Westmorland County looks like a particularly promising pond for the Pubs to throw out a line and see what bites (as in new Pub voters, or at least folks willing to consider going that way)). And then you advertise early in cheap ad markets to get those new voters in the "right" frame of mind before the ad blitz causes them to just tune out all the noise.

There is always this claim lurking out there, that the reason the Right loses, is that "too many" "conservatives" are not voting for whatever reason. Normally that is BS, although in 2012, there was that weird missing white working class vote drop off of about 3 million voters, that I am not sure was crunched into anyone's data base before hand. But what was BS then, perhaps is not BS now. Anyway, it will be interesting to see if the Pubs take his advice, so that his hypotheses can be taken for a spin and road tested.

The article has other tidbits of interest in addition to the above, so enjoy. I just set out what I found of particular interest to me.

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, none of those (atlas) red states are going to flip if the Republicans only try to get them with last minute hail-mary plays.  It'll require require significant long term investment

[Ebsy]

A surprisingly well thought and written piece from the National Review. However, I don't see Republicans adopting this strategy this cycle. They've deluded themselves into thinking that Hillary Clinton just CAN'T POSSIBLY be elected after eight years of Obama, just like they thought Obama COULDN'T POSSIBLY be reelected in 2012.

[EliteLX]

A surprisingly well thought and written piece from the National Review. However, I don't see Republicans adopting this strategy this cycle. They've deluded themselves into thinking that Hillary Clinton just CAN'T POSSIBLY be elected after eight years of Obama, just like they thought Obama COULDN'T POSSIBLY be reelected in 2012.

You sir, are high as a damn kite, if you don't believe the GOP hasn't assessed how big of a threat Hillary is this time around. Strategists for the RNC are gonna' have to get their sh**t together and roll out a killer game with a killer ticket consisting of hopefully Marco Rubio or/with Rand Paul to really make things happen in 2016.

It's most certainly possible. We will see, will be a rowdy year.

[Likely Voter]

I have long said that if the GOP is serious about PA, then they need to start now with registration and organization. And with VA potentially drifting more D, then they need to rethink their map. One thing is for sure, they can't half-ass it with a late entry as some kind of Plan C after plan A and plan B fall apart. They need to make PA part of the core, along with FL,OH,VA.  Or they should totally ignore it, except maybe a troll spend just to force the Dems to defend it with even more $.

[Ebsy]

A surprisingly well thought and written piece from the National Review. However, I don't see Republicans adopting this strategy this cycle. They've deluded themselves into thinking that Hillary Clinton just CAN'T POSSIBLY be elected after eight years of Obama, just like they thought Obama COULDN'T POSSIBLY be reelected in 2012.

You sir, are high as a damn kite, if you don't believe the GOP hasn't assessed how big of a threat Hillary is this time around. Strategists for the RNC are gonna' have to get their sh**t together and roll out a killer game with a killer ticket consisting of hopefully Marco Rubio or/with Rand Paul to really make things happen in 2016.

It's most certainly possible. We will see, will be a rowdy year.

Indeed, we will see. However, I doubt you will still be around come the first Wednesday in November for me to collect my accolades.

[Nyvin]

That was actually a good read, I'm kinda surprised.   It's refreshing to hear a Republican talk about turning out more voters as opposed to constantly hear them trying to squash supposed "voter fraud" of the Democrats,  which is really just code words for supporting voter suppression efforts.

[Cory]

You sir, are high as a damn kite, if you don't believe the GOP hasn't assessed how big of a threat Hillary is this time around. Strategists for the RNC are gonna' have to get their sh**t together and roll out a killer game with a killer ticket consisting of hopefully Marco Rubio or/with Rand Paul to really make things happen in 2016.

Here's the thing: Strategists for the RNC don't get to choose the ticket, the primary voters do.