Clinton vs Trump

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump 272
Clinton 266

I see Trump attractive in CO and NV.  NV is a place where Trump wannabes go all the time, and CO is, I believe, on a bit of a rightward swing.  I also see OH and NH going for Trump. 

In truth, I think that the map can be expanded widely either way.  Trump may be a huge bust and put off folks in MO, NC, and even GA, AR, and AZ.  On the other hand, I can see Trump carrying NJ, CT, and PA under certain circumstances, and even IL.  These states are desperate for economic turnaround, and Trump, IMO, has credibility here in ways that other Republicans never have had.  Picking OH for Trump is a bit risky, but they're turning toward the GOP and Trump's a bit of a protectionist.

Trump's a wild card; his nomination would do the most to jar the electoral map.  Which way he'd jar it is not clear.  But he would stand out in ways that no other candidate would.  I think folks here are underrating Trump's upside.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It's tough to say. I think him making the General Election would prove that he is a credible candidate who has run a good campaign, as the GOP isn't crazy enough to nominate him otherwise. And Fuzzy Bear has a point - Trump could attract a lot of people who may not normally vote.

I'm pretty confident that Hillary would win by a moderate amount, but it wouldn't be the landslide some are suggesting.

A lot depends on the role of the economy in the 2016 election.  If it's no more important than it was in recent years, Clinton will probably win, absent a massive downturn in fortune.  But if issues move toward an "It's the Economy, Stupid!" mode, then Trump has a unique opening.  People would be more economic-minded than usual, and they would see Trump as someone who could actually do something about their concerns.

Think about it for a moment.  What do Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee,  Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and even Jeb Bush (let alone Hillary Clinton) actually know about the national economy?  Not very much; they would be advisor-dependent.  Trump, on the other hand, would have advisors, but he'd know how to challenge them and override them. 

It's this simple:  The greater the concern about the economy, the more traction Donald Trump can muster up.  This has, IMO, the potential to go up exponentially, especially if there is any kind of crisis in the economy within the next 6 months.  Trump doesn't hold to the Club For Growth line all the way; he's an independent thinker on the economy, so folks will give him an ear that they won't give the new Phil Gramm. 

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump, on the other hand, would have advisors, but he'd know how to challenge them and override them. 

It's this simple:  The greater the concern about the economy, the more traction Donald Trump can muster up. 

How'd that go for Romney?

Not well, but it went poorly for Romney for reasons that don't apply to Trump:

1.  Romney ran on a false narrative as a "job creator".  As the campaign progressed, it became clear that Romney was not a "job creator" or even a "job saver"; he was a leveraged buyout wealth creator who made money for his clients, but who also caused plant closings and job losses.

2.  Romney's true narrative was that of a guy who was able to analyze difficult situations, come up with financial solutions for troubled companies and force people and organizations whose extravagance had brought them to near-ruin to live within their means.  This narrative, laid out in the CHICAGO TRIBUNE's primary endorsement of Romney, was never heard in the campaign.  This competence-based appeal would have been a more proper segue into the issue of entitlements.  Instead, Romney's "job creator" claims were demolished, and his way of addressing entitlement spending was his infamous 47% comments.

3.  People are far more convinced that Donald Trump knows something about the economy others don't, including Mitt Romney.  Regardless of his poll numbers, people know Donald Trump is a billionaire who is an active businessman who knows something about economics.  They know he's done BIG economic things and they have an idea as to what the BIG things he's done are. 

4.  Trump is going to be himself in a campaign.  Romney was a stiff, pandering phony, and people don't like that.  People didn't like Romney.  And when Romney told little white lies, he was caught and he became less likable. 

5.  The nuttiness of the GOP base caused Romney to have to run away from his signature achievement, Romneycare, for political reasons; indeed, it caused him to almost pretend that he never was Governor of Massachusetts.  Think for a minute of what a handicap that is; when you do something rare and special and then can't use it to advance yourself.  Not too many pols have found themselves in the position Romney was on Romneycare.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Trump, on the other hand, would have advisors, but he'd know how to challenge them and override them. 

It's this simple:  The greater the concern about the economy, the more traction Donald Trump can muster up. 

How'd that go for Romney?

Not well, but it went poorly for Romney for reasons that don't apply to Trump:

1.  Romney ran on a false narrative as a "job creator".  As the campaign progressed, it became clear that Romney was not a "job creator" or even a "job saver"; he was a leveraged buyout wealth creator who made money for his clients, but who also caused plant closings and job losses.

2.  Romney's true narrative was that of a guy who was able to analyze difficult situations, come up with financial solutions for troubled companies and force people and organizations whose extravagance had brought them to near-ruin to live within their means.  This narrative, laid out in the CHICAGO TRIBUNE's primary endorsement of Romney, was never heard in the campaign.  This competence-based appeal would have been a more proper segue into the issue of entitlements.  Instead, Romney's "job creator" claims were demolished, and his way of addressing entitlement spending was his infamous 47% comments.

3.  People are far more convinced that Donald Trump knows something about the economy others don't, including Mitt Romney.  Regardless of his poll numbers, people know Donald Trump is a billionaire who is an active businessman who knows something about economics.  They know he's done BIG economic things and they have an idea as to what the BIG things he's done are. 

4.  Trump is going to be himself in a campaign.  Romney was a stiff, pandering phony, and people don't like that.  People didn't like Romney.  And when Romney told little white lies, he was caught and he became less likable. 

5.  The nuttiness of the GOP base caused Romney to have to run away from his signature achievement, Romneycare, for political reasons; indeed, it caused him to almost pretend that he never was Governor of Massachusetts.  Think for a minute of what a handicap that is; when you do something rare and special and then can't use it to advance yourself.  Not too many pols have found themselves in the position Romney was on Romneycare.

1. Mitt Romney helped create thousands of jobs because he knew the business world, the economy, and how to succeed. Despite coming from a wealthy family, he didn't go into business using his father's wealth.

By contrast, Donald Trump did use his father's wealth and went into bankruptcy four times. He relied on government subsidies / corporate welfare to succeed. He hired some good advisers, yes. But he is purely a showman, not a real doer.

2. Donald Trump has been even more vague than Mitt Romney. I actually agree with you here that Romney wasn't bold, it was a contributing factor to his loss.

3. No, people are not convinced Donald Trump knows something about the economy, because he doesn't. His support is coming from folks who are upset at the political establishment and illegal immigration.

4. I can't argue with you here. But people dislike Trump far more than Romney.

5. Romneycare > Trump's single payer health care system support

I can't sleep. so I chose to bump a thread where dudeabides posted in.

This thread really is kind of hilarious, given what has transpired.  I'm amazed as to how so many didn't see Trump coming and are still in Trump Denial.