Competitive House Predictions: IN-02 to MI-07

[ElectionsGuy]

One vote for each race.

Update/Vote in the previous threads. There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall results!

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3

Predictions



Safe R: 202
Safe D: 176

Competitive D: 12
Competitive R: 12

Republicans: 214
Democrats: 188

Gains

CA-25 (D+1)
CO-06 (D+1)
FL-02 (R+1)
FL-10 (D+1)
FL-13 (D+1)
IL-10 (D+1)
IA-01 (D+1)

Overall: D+6

My Predictions

IN-02: Walorski (R)
IA-03: Young (R)
KS-03: Yoder (R)
ME-02: Poliquin (R)
MD-06: Delaney (D)
MI-01: Johnson (D)
MI-07: Walberg (R)

Many of the races in the previous threads (CO-06, FL-18, FL-26, IA-01) are still very close. Go back and vote/update if you want to influence them one way or another.

WA-08 has moved to Safe R and IN-02 has moved into competitive territory (via Cook for both), so this thread will start with IN-02. If Republicans win 4 of these 7 then Republicans will have already won the majority for predictions.

[Xing]

I agree with all of your predictions, though I think MI-01 will be quite close.

[Heisenberg]

I predict Bergman narrowly wins, and Delaney hangs on rather comfortably. The others favor Republicans, but are not that competitive, except for ME-02. Last week's set was way more competitive.

[Maxwell]

IN-02 - Walorski will win by an underwhelming margin, because that's the kind of incumbent she is.
IA-03 - Mowrer probably over-performs Apple in 2014, but sadly Young will probably win because this district likes fake moderates like Young.
KS-03 - Yoder is obviously favored, only going to lose in a wave.
ME-02 - Democrats really blundered recruiting here, that with Trump surging here, I'd be surprised to see Poliquin losing.
MD-06 - People are hyping this race as competitive, but it only was competitive in 2014 because of really pathetic turnout. In a year of normal turnout, Delaney will defeat the Republican by at least 10.
MI-01 - this is one race I think the Democrat will over-perform Clinton. Johnson for the win, narrowly.
MI-07 - Sadly, I think the incumbent is favored.

[smoltchanov]

Hope for Driskell victory in MI-07, otherwise it was rather easy. Republicans run good candidate in MD-06, who surely would win in 2014, but - not this year...

[Maxwell]

Republicans ran a terrible, horrible, awful candidate in MD-06 in 2014, but thanks to terrible turnout (and possible campaign incompetence) Delaney almost lost. I can't imagine Aimee whoever being possibly worse.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

IN-02 - Walorski will win by an underwhelming margin, because that's the kind of incumbent she is.
IA-03 - Mowrer probably over-performs Apple in 2014, but sadly Young will probably win because this district likes fake moderates like Young.
KS-03 - Yoder is obviously favored, only going to lose in a wave.
ME-02 - Democrats really blundered recruiting here, that with Trump surging here, I'd be surprised to see Poliquin losing.
MD-06 - People are hyping this race as competitive, but it only was competitive in 2014 because of really pathetic turnout. In a year of normal turnout, Delaney will defeat the Republican by at least 10.
MI-01 - this is one race I think the Democrat will over-perform Clinton. Johnson for the win, narrowly.
MI-07 - Sadly, I think the incumbent is favored.

Agree on all except MI-7, Driskell has run an excellent (from what I've read, nearly perfect) campaign while Walberg is a weak incumbent who is really the wrong type of Republican for the district (and isn't exactly the strongest campaigner either).  I think Driskell will narrowly win and (depending on her opponents) may even have a shot at hanging on until the next re-districting, tbh (one election at a time though). 

Regarding IA-3, I agree that Young will win by a close-but-not-razor-thin margin, but this is also one of those seats where we could definitely see an upset if the Republicans are having a rougher night than expected and/or if there is a medium-to-small late-breaking wave on the House side of things.

[Vosem]

Incumbents hold all is probably the likeliest scenario, but I picked Driskell over Walberg just because I think one of these flips and I'm under the impression the likelihood of Driskell winning is being understated. Bergman isn't the greatest candidate, but it's not like he's awful or anything and this is a part of the world where Trump should help.

[Torie]

All incumbents win.