Post predictions here

[Hatman 🍁]

Post your predictions here for the British election. (seat totals only)

Closest person gets bragging rights

My uneducated guess:

Labour 334
Conservative 209
Lib Dem 65
DUP 7
UU 4
SNP 4
PC 4
SF 4
SDLP 4
Ind. 1
Speaker 1
Total: 646

[Democratic Hawk]

Labour 366 seats
Conservative 194 seats
Liberal Democrats 56 seats
Others 30 seats

Labour would have an overall majority of 86

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Labour 385 seats
Conservative 185 seats
Liberal Democrats 66 seats
Others 29 seats

[Democratic Hawk]

Post your predictions here for the British election. (seat totals only)

Closest person gets bragging rights

My uneducated guess:

Labour 341
Conservative 209
Lib Dem 65
UU 4
SNP 4
PC 4
SF 4
SDLP 4
Ind. 1
Speaker 1
Total: 646

You've missed out the DUP

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Labour 385 seats
Conservative 185 seats
Liberal Democrats 66 seats
Others 29 seats

There's only 646 seats in the House of Common

Dave

[Peter]

I'll stick with my educated guess of:

Labour 349 (incl Speaker)
Conservative 198
Lib Dem 69
SNP 6
PC 5
Ind 1

If I must do Northern Ireland:
DUP 8
SF 5
UUP 3
SDLP 2

[DarthKosh]

Labour: 339
Conservative: 204
Lib Dem: 73
Snp: 6
PC: 5
Ind: 1

[bullmoose88]

Interesting, all of the very recent (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/vote2005/polltracker/html/polltracker.stm)  polls seem to show some upward Tory momentum.


Obviously not enough to win the election, or even make it a hung parliament...but I wonder how well they'll do.

Go Lib Dems, Go Tories. Anyone but Labour. (Hides from Al)

That said...I see a Labour majority (I'm not going for totals) of about 80.

[Erc]

LAB: 345  (35.5%)
CON: 212 (34%) [EDIT: 211 on election night, 1 by-election in Staffordshire South]
LIB: 59 (22.7%)
OTH: 30 (7.8%)

For a Labour Majority of 44.

I'm probably being a bit too harsh on Labour, but ah well.

[angus]

Go Lib Dems, Go Tories. Anyone but Labour. (Hides from Al)

My kinda republican.  That's pretty much how I feel about the Democrats.  (hides from Dave Leip)

Nice compendium of poll results, by the way.  Keep in mind that in the UK system it is possible for the conservative party to get more votes but still have fewer seats (not unlike here), and keep in mind that these polls tend to favor conservatives for the same reasons that polls in the US tend to favor democrats.  Also, Al made some interesting points about UK polls in another thread.  If you click on David Cowling's analysis at the bottom of your link you'll see a very interesting piece.

[bullmoose88]

Go Lib Dems, Go Tories. Anyone but Labour. (Hides from Al)

My kinda republican.  That's pretty much how I feel about the Democrats.  (hides from Dave Leip)

Nice compendium of poll results, by the way.  Keep in mind that in the UK system it is possible for the conservative party to get more votes but still have fewer seats (not unlike here), and keep in mind that these polls tend to favor conservatives for the same reasons that polls in the US tend to favor democrats.  Also, Al made some interesting points about UK polls in another thread.  If you click on David Cowling's analysis at the bottom of your link you'll see a very interesting piece.

I know...but both the Tories and Lib Dems have some (albeit slight) upward momentum. I wonder how many more seats that will translate to.

Of course the Tories need to be a couple points ahead of labour to win this thing. Which, obviously, isn't going to happen.

[minionofmidas]

My take was that the Tories seemed to have some serious downward momentum in the very last polls.

[Lt. Gov. Immy]

Labour: 356
Conservative: 195
Lib Dems: 65
SNP: 6
PC: 5
Others: 19

[bullmoose88]

My take was that the Tories seemed to have some serious downward momentum in the very last polls.

In the near recent polls, yes, but those released in the last day or so have them recouping most of their losses...unfortunately we don't know whether in a day or two they would continue to go up, or fall back down...

[angus]

I think Blair is a genuinely nice guy, in the way Carter was, but he's had to put up with Clinton and Bush (either of whom would be infinitely more interesting to hang out with than Blair.)  I certainly don't wish the man any harm, and I should apologize, well, I'll write apologise, to his supporters for all the impugning.  I certainly do think he's a fool, but he's an honest one.

Trondheim, these polls are equally worthless, but on the one that bullmoose88 presented, you can argue that it's essentially flat since february (34% +/- 3%) is equal to 32% +/- 3%.  And I'm guessing that those margins of error are optimistic, at best.

[bullmoose88]

Yeah...I'm digging at the bottom of the barrel...hoping that Labour is somehow tossed...

not gonna happen.

Ugh.

[Erc]

Go Lib Dems, Go Tories. Anyone but Labour. (Hides from Al)

My kinda republican.  That's pretty much how I feel about the Democrats.  (hides from Dave Leip)

Nice compendium of poll results, by the way.  Keep in mind that in the UK system it is possible for the conservative party to get more votes but still have fewer seats (not unlike here), and keep in mind that these polls tend to favor conservatives for the same reasons that polls in the US tend to favor democrats.  Also, Al made some interesting points about UK polls in another thread.  If you click on David Cowling's analysis at the bottom of your link you'll see a very interesting piece.

Although YouGov might arguably favor the Tories, haven't most polls in the UK always had a Labour slant?  Most obviously in '92, of course, but also in '01 and '97, methinks, as well.

[angus]

ouch.  .  yes.  did I write conservative?  dammit I did.  that's embarassing.  I was going for "...favors the Labour party for the same reason that they favor the Democrat party in the US..."  anyway, yes, I think that's correct. 

Seems that I'm an honest fool as well.  I'll shut up now. 

[WMS]

My totally unscientific, irritate-the-Lib Dem-supporters, shot-in-the-dark:

Labour: 374
Conservative: 214
Liberal Democrats: 28
Others: 30

Overall Labour majority: 102

[Jake]

Labour        338
Tories          217
Lib Dems       61
SNP                 6
PC                   5
Ind                  1

Majority of 30 for Labour

[Banana Republic]

Labour: 363
Conservatives: 199
Liberal Democrats: 59
Others: 25

I can't really speculate on the vote percentages. We'll know here in a couple of hours.

[JohnFKennedy]

I say Labour majority of roughly 107 or so:

Labour: 377 (inc speaker)
Conservative: 175
Lib Dems: 64
Other: 30

EDIT: Turnout will be at 62/63 percent imo.

[Emsworth]

Labour: 359
Conservative: 197
Liberal Democrats: 58
Other parties: 30
Speaker: 1
Vacant: 1

[Emsworth]

Labour: 359
Conservative: 197
Liberal Democrats: 58
Other parties: 30
Speaker: 1
Vacant: 1

It looks like my predictions have been rather reasonable. With 621 of 646 seats declared:

Labour: 352
Conservative: 196
Liberal Democrats: 60
Others: 12 (+18 in Northern Ireland = 30)
Speaker: 1
Vacant: 1

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the winner will either be Immy or Emsworth. Well done ol' chaps!