Sander's Chances

[Mehmentum]

Tough choice, I'd go with B.

[Ebsy]

0 = 0

[ShamDam]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

I can easily imagine Sanders playing McGovern to Clinton's Humphrey if her campaign collapses - and then losing the general by a similar margin.

[Crumpets]

If Sanders can wow enough people to beat a candidate consistently close to 60% in the national polls, he can beat whomever the Republicans put up there. Not that any of that is going to happen.

[IceSpear]

Well, you immediately start with a 45% base as a major party nominee. Sanders could possibly win if: a) he faces a joke candidate like Trump, b) he faces a right wing nutjob like Cruz, c) a major scandal hits the Republican nominee right before the election, or they completely collapse in some other way. I'd put the odds of these possibilities combined around ~3-5%. I think he has a <1% chance of winning the nomination, considering he's starting at a much lower base, and even in a scenario where he surges and gives Hillary a legitimate fight, it's extremely tough to see an actual path to victory for him. So option 2.

[/]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

true^

______________________________________________________________________

The campaign strategy of Bernie Sanders in the general election: Talk about jobs, healthcare, education, the environment, social issues, foreign policy, etc.

The campaign strategy of the GOP nominee in the general election: "Socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist. SOCIALIST!"

[The Other Castro]

I think Sanders' chances in the general election have been greatly understated, and that he might be able to win against even partly-joke candidates. Given he will never win the Democratic nomination, option 2 by far.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The second one, of course.

[IceSpear]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

true^

______________________________________________________________________

The campaign strategy of Bernie Sanders in the general election: Talk about jobs, healthcare, education, the environment, social issues, foreign policy, etc.

The campaign strategy of the GOP nominee in the general election: "Socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist. SOCIALIST!"

And that would work. Remember 2004? TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! WHY DO YOU LOVE THE TERRORISTS?! HOMOS ARE MARRYING!!!!!!

[Bojack Horseman]

Neither. If he gets the nomination, he's the next George McGovern.

[RFayette]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

true^

______________________________________________________________________

The campaign strategy of Bernie Sanders in the general election: Talk about jobs, healthcare, education, the environment, social issues, foreign policy, etc.

The campaign strategy of the GOP nominee in the general election: "Socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist. SOCIALIST!"

And that would work. Remember 2004? TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! WHY DO YOU LOVE THE TERRORISTS?! HOMOS ARE MARRYING!!!!!!

"SOCIALIST!" is probably a winning strategy given the association of "socialism" with the Soviet Union for older voters.  Plus, Sanders is easy to frame as an extremist.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

true^

______________________________________________________________________

The campaign strategy of Bernie Sanders in the general election: Talk about jobs, healthcare, education, the environment, social issues, foreign policy, etc.

The campaign strategy of the GOP nominee in the general election: "Socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist. SOCIALIST!"

And that would work. Remember 2004? TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! WHY DO YOU LOVE THE TERRORISTS?! HOMOS ARE MARRYING!!!!!!

"SOCIALIST!" is probably a winning strategy given the association of "socialism" with the Soviet Union for older voters.  Plus, Sanders is easy to frame as an extremist.

Socialist is a pretty tired attack after calling Obama a socialist nonstop.

[RFayette]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

true^

______________________________________________________________________

The campaign strategy of Bernie Sanders in the general election: Talk about jobs, healthcare, education, the environment, social issues, foreign policy, etc.

The campaign strategy of the GOP nominee in the general election: "Socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist. SOCIALIST!"

And that would work. Remember 2004? TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! WHY DO YOU LOVE THE TERRORISTS?! HOMOS ARE MARRYING!!!!!!

"SOCIALIST!" is probably a winning strategy given the association of "socialism" with the Soviet Union for older voters.  Plus, Sanders is easy to frame as an extremist.

Socialist is a pretty tired attack after calling Obama a socialist nonstop.

Yes, but it's more effective with someone who actually calls themselves a socialist.  Look, Sanders can still win, but I think it's pretty clear he's less electable than Hillary.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

There's a greater chance of Clowns building an army and taking over the world than Sanders being the nominee or President.

[Eraserhead]

B of course. He'd easily beat a lot of these jokers running for the Republican nomination.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

true^

______________________________________________________________________

The campaign strategy of Bernie Sanders in the general election: Talk about jobs, healthcare, education, the environment, social issues, foreign policy, etc.

The campaign strategy of the GOP nominee in the general election: "Socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist. SOCIALIST!"

And that would work. Remember 2004? TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! WHY DO YOU LOVE THE TERRORISTS?! HOMOS ARE MARRYING!!!!!!

"SOCIALIST!" is probably a winning strategy given the association of "socialism" with the Soviet Union for older voters.  Plus, Sanders is easy to frame as an extremist.

Socialist is a pretty tired attack after calling Obama a socialist nonstop.

Yes, but it's more effective with someone who actually calls themselves a socialist.  Look, Sanders can still win, but I think it's pretty clear he's less electable than Hillary.

Here's a poll where 55% of likely voters said Obama is a socialist. So it could be a bit higher with Sanders. Big whoop.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/07/poll-55-of-likely-voters-think-obama-is-a-socialist/59463/

If we're going to avoid doing X because the Republicans might attack us for it, we might as well concede the election now.

[WVdemocrat]

Sanders has got to have less than a 10% chance at the nomination. If he's the nominee, surely there's greater than a 10% chance that the Democrat would win, no matter how extreme, just based on potential extenuating circumstances.

true^

______________________________________________________________________

The campaign strategy of Bernie Sanders in the general election: Talk about jobs, healthcare, education, the environment, social issues, foreign policy, etc.

The campaign strategy of the GOP nominee in the general election: "Socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist socialist. SOCIALIST!"

And that would work. Remember 2004? TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! TERRORISTS! GAY MARRIAGE! WHY DO YOU LOVE THE TERRORISTS?! HOMOS ARE MARRYING!!!!!!

"SOCIALIST!" is probably a winning strategy given the association of "socialism" with the Soviet Union for older voters.  Plus, Sanders is easy to frame as an extremist.

Socialist is a pretty tired attack after calling Obama a socialist nonstop.

Yes, but it's more effective with someone who actually calls themselves a socialist.  Look, Sanders can still win, but I think it's pretty clear he's less electable than Hillary.

Here's a poll where 55% of likely voters said Obama is a socialist. So it could be a bit higher with Sanders. Big whoop.

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/07/poll-55-of-likely-voters-think-obama-is-a-socialist/59463/

If we're going to avoid doing X because the Republicans might attack us for it, we might as well concede the election now.

The fact that Obama (clearly not a socialist) got elected twice by people who think he is a socialist gives me hope that a reformer like Bernie could win.

[Maxwell]

Sanders chances are nil against a non-fringe tier Republican and every person who isn't in some fantasy world knows that.

[morgieb]

For either to happen something extremely strange would need to happen.

That said, to knock off Hillary would require a massive scandal on her behalf and a lack of time to find another alternative. In the general he might have a shot if the Republican ran a really dire campaign or was hit by a massive scandal, his floor for obvious reasons is a fair bit higher in the general rather than the primary. B but both options are likely <10% of probability.

[Donald Trump 2016 !]

There's a greater chance of Clowns building an army and taking over the world than Sanders being the nominee or President.

[/]

Sanderslide

After convincing the American public that democratic socialism is different than USSR-style socialism and that a Sanders Administration will bring real change, Bernie crushes his GOP opponent in all Atlas red states and is easily able to win all of the traditional swing states. Sanders wins the Southeast and the Southwest by convincing African-Americans and Hispanics, respectively, to increase voter turnout, and by convincing poor white Southerners who are disenfranchised by the GOP to vote based off of economic policy instead of social policy. Sanders is extremely popular among the traditionally libertarian states of the Northwest (MT, ND, SD, AK, ID, etc.) due to his ability to convince those states that his economic policy will help the middle class, and he wins Utah after video recordings of the GOP candidate mocking Mormonism are released. KY, IN, and WV become Sanders states after Bernie insists that his energy policy will help, not hurt, job creation by bringing new alternative energy jobs to these states.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Neither. If he gets the nomination, he's the next George McGovern.

^^^^^ Much as I like his ideas myself, the country hasn't shifted that far yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldnt rule out a Sanders nomination. But, Clinton isnt getting a free ride to nomination.

[dudeabides]

How can anyone actually believe this guy has a chance at winning?

-He believes in cap and trade, which would cost American taxpayers around $1 trillion, essentially it's a $1 trillion tax increase
- He believes that any person he might nominate for the judiciary must promise to over-turn Citizens United, he wants activist judges
- In 2001, he voted against border patrol agents to "battle drugs and terrorism"
- He supports tougher vehicle emissions standards, clearly he's against the free market
- He supported President Obama's executive actions on immigration, but doesn't support a broad guest worker program, something Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio could use against him. He tried to defeat immigration reform in 2007, but has flip-flopped since
- He supports government-run health care

Bernie Sanders is a socialist, he wants America to be more like Europe. Additionally, he has written some disgusting essays in the 1970s.

I hope Democrats nominate him so Republicans can win and restore this economy and our standing in the world.