Will Kasich skip the first debate?

[Yelnoc]

He's polling low, and the planned announcement time frame of "July" may be too late generate a big enough bump to propel him into the Fox debate. If he misses the first debate while a declared candidate, he's done. He also seems to be having problems drumming up significant donor support.

If I were him, I would wait until after the August debate to announce. It's bound to be a circus, with at least ten people on stage, almost certainly all focusing their fire on Jeb. The front runner is going to get hammered. If Kasich waited until after the debate to announce, he could expect the press to spin him as the late entrant establishment favorite, Jeb's replacement.

Is there any reason he wouldn't do this? Any early ballot filing deadlines or the like?

[Mister Mets]

It could make sense for him to pull a Rick Perry/ Fred Thompson. Those guys got publicity with their late entrances.

He doesn't need to do as well. Five percent is likely to be enough.

It's also possible that someone currently running will be forced out for whatever reason. See Tim Pawlenty in 2012.

There would be some risks. Another high-profile candidate might decide to go with a similar strategy, and get all the attention (IE- Condoleeza Rice, Susanna Martinez or Mitt Romney.) Other candidates might take off leaving less spots available in the top ten. And he might be a bit out of practice (part of the reason Thompson and Perry didn't get the nomination.)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It could make sense for him to pull a Rick Perry/ Fred Thompson. Those guys got publicity with their late entrances.

He doesn't need to do as well. Five percent is likely to be enough.

It's also possible that someone currently running will be forced out for whatever reason. See Tim Pawlenty in 2012.

There would be some risks. Another high-profile candidate might decide to go with a similar strategy, and get all the attention (IE- Condoleeza Rice, Susanna Martinez or Mitt Romney.) Other candidates might take off leaving less spots available in the top ten. And he might be a bit out of practice (part of the reason Thompson and Perry didn't get the nomination.)

Romney is NOT going to run. I don't care if Bush, Rubio, Walker, Kasich, and Paul all die in a car crash tomorrow, he is NOT going to run. When will people get it into their heads that he has no interest AT ALL in a third try for president ?!?

[moderatevoter]

It could make sense for him to pull a Rick Perry/ Fred Thompson. Those guys got publicity with their late entrances.

He doesn't need to do as well. Five percent is likely to be enough.

It's also possible that someone currently running will be forced out for whatever reason. See Tim Pawlenty in 2012.

There would be some risks. Another high-profile candidate might decide to go with a similar strategy, and get all the attention (IE- Condoleeza Rice, Susanna Martinez or Mitt Romney.) Other candidates might take off leaving less spots available in the top ten. And he might be a bit out of practice (part of the reason Thompson and Perry didn't get the nomination.)

Romney is NOT going to run. I don't care if Bush, Rubio, Walker, Kasich, and Paul all die in a car crash tomorrow, he is NOT going to run. When will people get it into their heads that he has no interest AT ALL in a third try for president ?!?

The conventional wisdom was that he did want to make another go, but Jeb Bush more or less boxed him out.

[Cory]

The conventional wisdom was that he did want to make another go, but Jeb Bush more or less boxed him out.

What a colossal miscalculation by the Republican establishment. It's apparent by now they should've went with Romney.

[tmthforu94]

It could make sense for him to pull a Rick Perry/ Fred Thompson. Those guys got publicity with their late entrances.

He doesn't need to do as well. Five percent is likely to be enough.

It's also possible that someone currently running will be forced out for whatever reason. See Tim Pawlenty in 2012.

There would be some risks. Another high-profile candidate might decide to go with a similar strategy, and get all the attention (IE- Condoleeza Rice, Susanna Martinez or Mitt Romney.) Other candidates might take off leaving less spots available in the top ten. And he might be a bit out of practice (part of the reason Thompson and Perry didn't get the nomination.)

Romney is NOT going to run. I don't care if Bush, Rubio, Walker, Kasich, and Paul all die in a car crash tomorrow, he is NOT going to run. When will people get it into their heads that he has no interest AT ALL in a third try for president ?!?

The conventional wisdom was that he did want to make another go, but Jeb Bush more or less boxed him out.

The idea that Bush scared Romney out of running is ludicrous. Romney would absolutely destroy Bush.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The conventional wisdom was that he did want to make another go, but Jeb Bush more or less boxed him out.

What a colossal miscalculation by the Republican establishment. It's apparent by now they should've went with Romney.

Romney (has) :

- lost twice, both as a 'non-evangelical conservative' (08) and as a 'moderate' (12)

- espoused self-deportation and 47% rhetoric

- come out in support of letting Detroit go bankrupt

- revealed during an election (12) that his strategy was one in which he would never campaign for non-white votes, in an attempt to get 61% of the white vote  (it didn't work, he got 59% of the white vote) .

- Flip-flopped on every conceivable issue

- left office as MA gov. in a very unpopular position, largely due to MA being 47th in job creation and the fact that he spent about 200 days out of the state in 2006 preparing for his upcoming presidential run

- created the model for ObamaCare

- Almost lost his birth state to SANTORUM in 2012

- enjoys firing people

- bungled the 2012 response to Benghazi so badly that the whole thing, was, if anything, helpful to Obama

- had a terrible GOTV operation

- underperformed the polls by several points on election day


He'd be a terrible option for the establishment.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Romney didn't run against because he didn't have the support of enough people in the establishment (the so called "invisible primary").

[Mister Mets]

It could make sense for him to pull a Rick Perry/ Fred Thompson. Those guys got publicity with their late entrances.

He doesn't need to do as well. Five percent is likely to be enough.

It's also possible that someone currently running will be forced out for whatever reason. See Tim Pawlenty in 2012.

There would be some risks. Another high-profile candidate might decide to go with a similar strategy, and get all the attention (IE- Condoleeza Rice, Susanna Martinez or Mitt Romney.) Other candidates might take off leaving less spots available in the top ten. And he might be a bit out of practice (part of the reason Thompson and Perry didn't get the nomination.)

Romney is NOT going to run. I don't care if Bush, Rubio, Walker, Kasich, and Paul all die in a car crash tomorrow, he is NOT going to run. When will people get it into their heads that he has no interest AT ALL in a third try for president ?!?

I gave Romney as one of several potential names in a scenario that is unlikely to occur.

I'll note he is still mentioned on occasion.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-06-16/the-odds-on-republican-2016-contenders

This is still the type of thing that might be a concern for Kasich in a late entrance.

[moderatevoter]

The conventional wisdom was that he did want to make another go, but Jeb Bush more or less boxed him out.

The idea that Bush scared Romney out of running is ludicrous. Romney would absolutely destroy Bush.

I think several of Romney's former aides committed to Jeb, who was also (as Nagas said) getting more support from donors and other people within the Republican Establishment.