Bernie Sanders vs Jeb Bush (and other GOP candidates)
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  Bernie Sanders vs Jeb Bush (and other GOP candidates)
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Author Topic: Bernie Sanders vs Jeb Bush (and other GOP candidates)  (Read 9697 times)
RR1997
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« on: June 20, 2015, 09:58:35 PM »
« edited: June 20, 2015, 10:01:04 PM by RR1997 »

If Sanders won the nomination, how would he perform against Jeb Bush and other possible GOP candidates?

Here's my Jeb Bush vs Bernie Sanders map:



Jeb Bush: 376 EV's, 55% of the popular vote
Bernie Sanders: 162 EV's, 41% of the popular vote
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Penelope
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« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2015, 10:19:12 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2015, 10:22:02 PM by Ody »

Something like this..



Bush - 342
Sanders - 196

I'm not going to bother making a PV estimation, but it would probably be at least a 10 pt. margin in favor of Bush. States that Obama won by 10-20 pts. would be within 2-5 pts. for Sanders, due to more centrist Democrats reluctantly voting for Bush. Sanders' (relatively) far left policy positions would also allow Bush to run up the score in conservative strongholds like the Mountain West and the South.

Note: this is assuming a relatively normal campaign. Bush would probably have plenty of opportunities to paint Sanders as a far left loon, and if he capitalized on these opportunities, it could turn into a 1972-esque rout. 
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2015, 10:27:21 PM »



303-235
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2015, 10:31:16 PM »

it depends on what the national Dems do, the people who control the campaign money.  the Democratic right might do what they did with McGovern in '72 and essentially prefer the Republican on the grounds that he won't disrupt the current party system.  if this happened, Sanders would likely lose close to Dukakis '88.

if the national Dems did try honestly to get Sanders elected president, I think he would be much more Kerry '04 than Dukakis '88 against Jeb Bush, and might win against a Cruz or Rand Paul.  here's a vs Bush type map.  Pennsylvania could well go the other way.

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CommanderClash
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« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2015, 10:31:38 PM »



Jeb Bush - 321 EV
Bernie Sanders - 217 EV

Bush flips NV, NH, PA, and WI but the major Dem strongholds remain out of reach.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2015, 10:32:47 PM »

just as the GOP has a built-in advantage in the House, I suspect the Dems have an advantage in presidential elections.  GOP performance has been very unimpressive since 1988.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2015, 11:01:34 PM »



Bush - 332
Sanders - 206
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2015, 11:05:57 PM »

Could go any number of ways. Like Sanders chances to turn out more disengaged voters than he scares off swing voters against another Bush. I'd bet on Sanders to win.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2015, 11:14:15 PM »

Could go any number of ways. Like Sanders chances to turn out more disengaged voters than he scares off swing voters against another Bush. I'd bet on Sanders to win.

This. Bernie Sanders could inspire people who have been discouraged by ineffective government.

Who's another Bush going to inspire?
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #9 on: June 21, 2015, 12:08:45 AM »

Sanders strikes me as being good in debates, I also think that it would be the ultimate "populist vs aristocrat" battle.
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: June 21, 2015, 12:16:05 AM »

Between Terri Schiavo, the Scarlet letter, support for terrorist Orlando Bosch, and the Florida scrub list, I have hope that the American people will realize that Bernie Sanders is the more moderate of these two.
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captainkangaroo
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« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2015, 04:19:25 AM »

A socialist will not be perceived as a moderate by American voters. Especially when compared to a conservative governor who has a strong record on governing a swing state.
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CELTICEMPIRE
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« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2015, 05:15:03 AM »

A socialist will not be perceived as a moderate by American voters. Especially when compared to a conservative governor who has a strong record on governing a swing state.

See, you're using real life logic.  That doesn't apply here on Atlas.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #13 on: June 21, 2015, 07:45:22 AM »



Jeb wins 322-216.
New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine-2nd are very close, expecially New Mexico.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #14 on: June 21, 2015, 07:53:26 AM »

A socialist will not be perceived as a moderate by American voters. Especially when compared to a conservative governor who has a strong record on governing a swing state.

See, you're using real life logic.  That doesn't apply here on Atlas.

Bernie Sanders isn't any more socialist than a lot of other mainstream government officials (including Obama before he became President); he's just the only one that identifies himself as such. If he is able to convince American voters that democratic socialism is different than USSR-style socialism through a public awareness campaign, he has a great chance of winning the election by a sizeable margin. I think somebody made this point earlier, but people would actually have a reason to be inspired to vote for Bernie Sanders (REAL change); Jeb Bush is just some status-quo mainstream Republican who would disenfranchise many, especially including those who are actually looking for change. And Sanders won't be burdened by comparisons to Obama or the mainstream Democratic Party, as, well, duh.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2015, 08:08:39 AM »

A socialist will not be perceived as a moderate by American voters. Especially when compared to a conservative governor who has a strong record on governing a swing state.

See, you're using real life logic.  That doesn't apply here on Atlas.

ayyy lmao
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Icefire9
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« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2015, 08:45:49 AM »

A socialist will not be perceived as a moderate by American voters. Especially when compared to a conservative governor who has a strong record on governing a swing state.

See, you're using real life logic.  That doesn't apply here on Atlas.

Bernie Sanders isn't any more socialist than a lot of other mainstream government officials (including Obama before he became President); he's just the only one that identifies himself as such. If he is able to convince American voters that democratic socialism is different than USSR-style socialism through a public awareness campaign, he has a great chance of winning the election by a sizeable margin. I think somebody made this point earlier, but people would actually have a reason to be inspired to vote for Bernie Sanders (REAL change); Jeb Bush is just some status-quo mainstream Republican who would disenfranchise many, especially including those who are actually looking for change. And Sanders won't be burdened by comparisons to Obama or the mainstream Democratic Party, as, well, duh.
1.) Sanders is going to be spending much of his campaign on defense.  Bernie Sanders is going to need to run a public awareness campaign before he can even think of winning.  This is an added barrier to winning that he simply can't afford.

2.) Your strategy for Sanders relies on the effectiveness of a fairly complex and nuanced argument.  Can you see the problem here?  Complex and nuanced arguments get lost in the noise. 

3.) Bernie Sanders is going to spend much of his campaign talking about how Socialism isn't so bad, meanwhile Jeb Bush will line up Republicans and conservative Democrats to talk about how Socialism is that bad.  A public awareness campaign is impossible if its swamped up in ads saying the exact opposite thing.  Most voters will write it off as 'he said, she said' and just go with their already existing opinions.
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2015, 08:58:24 AM »



Sanders wins 290-248.
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RR1997
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« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2015, 10:13:36 AM »
« Edited: June 21, 2015, 10:17:43 AM by RR1997 »

Lol you guys are delusional

Sanders is a self-proclaimed SOCIALIST (I know he actually isn't).

The GOP candidate would probably tie Sanders to the USSR (lol) and call him a far-left socialist lunatic, and the GOP candidate would probably win by a landslide just by doing that.

Anyone who thinks that Bush would lose or get less than 320 EV's is either a huge troll or delusional as far as I'm concerned. Even my map is probably being too generous to Sanders.

I could also imagine fundraising being a huge problem for Sanders if he won the nomination. A lot of wealthy donors who supported Obama and other mainstream Democrats aren't going to support Sanders for very obvious reasons.

You guys remind me of the Paulbots back in 2012 who believed that Paul would actually defeat Obama if he had won the nomination.

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RR1997
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« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2015, 10:14:39 AM »

A socialist will not be perceived as a moderate by American voters. Especially when compared to a conservative governor who has a strong record on governing a swing state.

See, you're using real life logic.  That doesn't apply here on Atlas.

Bernie Sanders isn't any more socialist than a lot of other mainstream government officials (including Obama before he became President); he's just the only one that identifies himself as such. If he is able to convince American voters that democratic socialism is different than USSR-style socialism through a public awareness campaign, he has a great chance of winning the election by a sizeable margin. I think somebody made this point earlier, but people would actually have a reason to be inspired to vote for Bernie Sanders (REAL change); Jeb Bush is just some status-quo mainstream Republican who would disenfranchise many, especially including those who are actually looking for change. And Sanders won't be burdened by comparisons to Obama or the mainstream Democratic Party, as, well, duh.
1.) Sanders is going to be spending much of his campaign on defense.  Bernie Sanders is going to need to run a public awareness campaign before he can even think of winning.  This is an added barrier to winning that he simply can't afford.

2.) Your strategy for Sanders relies on the effectiveness of a fairly complex and nuanced argument.  Can you see the problem here?  Complex and nuanced arguments get lost in the noise. 

3.) Bernie Sanders is going to spend much of his campaign talking about how Socialism isn't so bad, meanwhile Jeb Bush will line up Republicans and conservative Democrats to talk about how Socialism is that bad.  A public awareness campaign is impossible if its swamped up in ads saying the exact opposite thing.  Most voters will write it off as 'he said, she said' and just go with their already existing opinions.


^
This
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dudeabides
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« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2015, 10:15:50 AM »

Jeb Bush (R) 62% 419 EV
Bernie Sanders (D) 37% 119 EV


Marco Rubio (R) 60% 419 EV
Bernie Sanders (D) 39% 119 EV


Scott Walker (R) 59% 399 EV
Bernie Sanders (D) 40% 139 EV
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dudeabides
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« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2015, 10:22:25 AM »

Lol you guys are delusional

Sanders is a self-proclaimed SOCIALIST (I know he actually isn't).

The GOP candidate would probably tie Sanders to the USSR (lol) and call him a far-left socialist lunatic and the GOP candidate would probably win by a landslide just by doing that.

Anyone who thinks that Bush would lose or get less than 320 EV's is either a huge troll or delusional as far as I'm concerned. Even my map is probably being too generous to Sanders.

I could also imagine fundraising being a huge problem for Sanders if he won the nomination. A lot of wealthy donors who supported Obama and other mainstream Democrats aren't going to support Sanders for very obvious reasons.

You guys remind me of the Paulbots back in 2012 who believed that Paul would actually defeat Obama if he had won the nomination.



I think of the three leading GOP candidates (Bush, Walker, Rubio) Bush and Rubio would get 419 EVs, but Bush would do better in the popular vote.

I see you are from IL; the reason I say Walker would lose Illinois to Sanders is because in a blue state like Illinois that neighbors the state Walker governs, his policies towards the unions would turn many off. Am I wrong?

I still think Walker would win in a landslide, with 399 EVs.

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Oak Hills
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« Reply #22 on: June 21, 2015, 10:39:25 AM »
« Edited: June 21, 2015, 10:42:03 AM by Oak Hills »



This is what a 57-41 GOP popular vote win looks like based on a uniform swing from 2012, with a few adjustments in the margins due to favorite-son effects.  This is Sanders' floor imo.  Also, note that a lot of the Dem states that flip to Republican are very close in this map.

EDIT: Forgot to report that that's a 418-120 GOP win.
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dudeabides
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« Reply #23 on: June 21, 2015, 11:04:12 AM »



This is what a 57-41 GOP popular vote win looks like based on a uniform swing from 2012, with a few adjustments in the margins due to favorite-son effects.  This is Sanders' floor imo.  Also, note that a lot of the Dem states that flip to Republican are very close in this map.

EDIT: Forgot to report that that's a 418-120 GOP win.

There is no way Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida are close, especially with Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. In Florida, they have home advantage, but in all of them, they will do very well with hispanic voters. Bernie Sanders sought to defeat immigration reform in 2007, arguing it would lower wages for American workers. He isn't a big fan of a guest worker program.

Also, Pennsylvania and Ohio would not be that close, you can't be too far left or right to win in either state, and Sanders is very far left.

New Hampshire and Maine go for Democrats more often than Republicans, but the GOP has had some success in both over the last 23 years it has gone Democrat for President.

Virginia only votes Democrat now because of federal employees moving there. I think those federal employees, despite their somewhat progressive values, know that Bernie Sanders is not capable of being President.

While President Obama won comfortably in Oregon twice, President Bush was within 4 points of winning there in 2004, in a blue state.

Since 2008, for statewide offices, Wisconsin went Democratic twice (2008 and 2012 for President Obama, granted narrowly in 2012 for a blue state) but also Republican three times (2010, 2011, and 2014 with Ron Johnson & Scott Walker). With Wisconsin's Paul Ryan on the ticket in 2012, Mitt Romney reduced President Obama's margin of victory in Wisconsin from 14 points to 7 points over 2008, and President Bush lost Wisconsin by less than 1 percent in 2004.

Iowa is a state that has been good to both parties, but statewide, no one that far to the left, with the exception of President Obama who is still not as left as Bernie Sanders, has won that state.

I live in New Jersey. We have elected liberal Democrats, but not those who claimed to be socialists. Additionally, to be quite blunt, some Democrats in suburban communities would not vote for someone like Bernie Sanders who comes across as a nut, and we have a considerable Hispanic population.

Connecticut has a lot of wealthy people who are Democrats, but not socialists. 
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JonathanSwift
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« Reply #24 on: June 21, 2015, 11:08:38 AM »

Lol you guys are delusional

Sanders is a self-proclaimed SOCIALIST (I know he actually isn't).

The GOP candidate would probably tie Sanders to the USSR (lol) and call him a far-left socialist lunatic, and the GOP candidate would probably win by a landslide just by doing that.

Anyone who thinks that Bush would lose or get less than 320 EV's is either a huge troll or delusional as far as I'm concerned. Even my map is probably being too generous to Sanders.

I could also imagine fundraising being a huge problem for Sanders if he won the nomination. A lot of wealthy donors who supported Obama and other mainstream Democrats aren't going to support Sanders for very obvious reasons.

You guys remind me of the Paulbots back in 2012 who believed that Paul would actually defeat Obama if he had won the nomination.



This isn't 1972 or 1984 anymore. There are too many black and Hispanic voters (who aren't going to suddenly turn Republican just because the Republican candidate supports "immigration reform") for any Democrat to lose in a landslide. Honestly, even if Sanders were a complete train wreck on the campaign trail and even if the Republicans nominated the best possible ticket (i.e., one not featuring Jeb Bush), it's very hard to see Sanders doing any worse than, say, this:



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