The EC is basically random. One of the reasons it is stupid.
I disagree (on the premise, not necessarily the conclusion). In each of the last four elections, Democrats have carried at least the same 18 states and DC, while the Republicans have carried at least the same 22 states. That means of the 51 available contests, 41 (over 80%) have gone the same exact way the last four cycles. These red states and blue states have not been too random.
The recent Democratic advantage in the EC is also clear. Those 19 contests bring them 242 electoral votes. The 22 Republican states net them only 180. If the Democrats again win those 19 in 2016, they're only Florida away from an electoral majority, and without it there are still many small, realistic combinations to get to 270.
Of course, this assumption gives Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to the Democrats (they've been blue since 2000), which isn't fair to the Republican nominee, but the trend doesn't look good for the GOP.
Poll
