What's going on with the Democrats in Nevada?

[The Arizonan]

What's up with the Democrats in Nevada? They haven't held the governor's mansion since the 1990s and they've lost Richard Bryan's Senate seat in 2000, a Democratic year. They've lost control of the legislature and at least one House seat in Congress. The only thing they've managed to accomplish is holding onto one Senate seat despite the fact that Harry Reid is sitting in it and occasionally taking back one or two House seats.

[Maxwell]

It's a problem that Democrats have nationwide - They want to be the party of everyone, and don't want to possibly make the mistake of taking a stand. That and, despite a good deal of possible bombshells, Nevada Republicans have a solid enough bench.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Last year was a perfect storm of a national Republican wave, an extremely popular moderate Hispanic governor at the top of the ticket who went virtually uncontested, and the absence of Harry Reid's turnout machine. What set 2010 apart from 2014 in the state was Harry Reid (no doubt with an assist from Sharrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle), which is why Sandoval only won by about 10 points in 2010 and Reid was able to eke out a 5 point victory. Don't know about 2006 though, that really seems like something the Dems should've won. Probably had something to do with John Ensign being on the ballot that year and his "non-agression pact" with Reid, if I had to guess.

[Hydera]

Hispanic turnout is lower in off-year elections.  wayyy lower in off-year elections.

Theres a strong enough floor for republicans consisting of High turnout-ish mormons + Fiscally conservative/Socially Moderate Suburbanites. That allows an edge to win off-year elections especially since hispanics a strong democrat consistency don't turn out a lot in those elections.

Besides Kenny Guinn and Brian sandoval were really moderate republicans that offset a lot of democrats from coming out to vote against them.

Harry Reid being a mormon was probably a reason why he survived the republican wave in 2010.

[The Arizonan]

It's a problem that Democrats have nationwide - They want to be the party of everyone, and don't want to possibly make the mistake of taking a stand. That and, despite a good deal of possible bombshells, Nevada Republicans have a solid enough bench.

The Nevada Republicans have nutjobs like that legislator who said he'd bring back slavery if his constituents wanted that. Brian Sandoval seems like a decent guy and I'd to meet him one day. He's going to serve out his second term as governor. My father claims to have known him when he was a Reno lawyer.

[Ebsy]

Keeping Harry Reid in the Senate is a pretty major accomplishment imo.

[Maxwell]

It's a problem that Democrats have nationwide - They want to be the party of everyone, and don't want to possibly make the mistake of taking a stand. That and, despite a good deal of possible bombshells, Nevada Republicans have a solid enough bench.

The Nevada Republicans have nutjobs like that legislator who said he'd bring back slavery if his constituents wanted that. Brian Sandoval seems like a decent guy and I'd to meet him one day. He's going to serve out his second term as governor. My father claims to have known him when he was a Reno lawyer.

As I said, they have PLENTY of potential bombshells. But they also have a lot of talent (Hutchison, Roberson, Heck, ect.)

[Zioneer]

Hispanic turnout is lower in off-year elections.  wayyy lower in off-year elections.

Theres a strong enough floor for republicans consisting of High turnout-ish mormons + Fiscally conservative/Socially Moderate Suburbanites. That allows an edge to win off-year elections especially since hispanics a strong democrat consistency don't turn out a lot in those elections.

Besides Kenny Guinn and Brian sandoval were really moderate republicans that offset a lot of democrats from coming out to vote against them.

Harry Reid being a mormon was probably a reason why he survived the republican wave in 2010.

Well, being a Mormon myself, I can tell you that a lot of Mormons actually despise Harry Reid and see him as a traitor to the faith. At least Utah Mormons, I don't know about Nevada Mormons, but considering Cliven Bundy and his ilk, I imagine they're similar to Utah Mormons. Reid survives because he's a good strategist, not because he's Mormon. Though I like Harry Reid as a politician, and I'm effectively a Mormon Dem, so my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Hydera]

Hispanic turnout is lower in off-year elections.  wayyy lower in off-year elections.

Theres a strong enough floor for republicans consisting of High turnout-ish mormons + Fiscally conservative/Socially Moderate Suburbanites. That allows an edge to win off-year elections especially since hispanics a strong democrat consistency don't turn out a lot in those elections.

Besides Kenny Guinn and Brian sandoval were really moderate republicans that offset a lot of democrats from coming out to vote against them.

Harry Reid being a mormon was probably a reason why he survived the republican wave in 2010.

Well, being a Mormon myself, I can tell you that a lot of Mormons actually despise Harry Reid and see him as a traitor to the faith. At least Utah Mormons, I don't know about Nevada Mormons, but considering Cliven Bundy and his ilk, I imagine they're similar to Utah Mormons. Reid survives because he's a good strategist, not because he's Mormon. Though I like Harry Reid as a politician, and I'm effectively a Mormon Dem, so my opinion should be taken with a grain of salt.

I couldn't find any exit poll from 2010 that polled mormons. But obviously he wasn't going to win them but its very probable that a "one of us effect" might of cushioned some negativity even if its a group thats usually strongly against the party that person associates with.

http://polipundit.com/?p=36694

Some conservatives blame a significant amount of mormons voting for reid as tipping the favor in 2010.

[ElectionsGuy]

Aren't Mormons only about 5% of the population in Nevada?

To answer the question, its pathetic turnout and pathetic candidates (rather good Republican candidates too) that have allowed the Nevada GOP to sweep everything in the state except Harry Reid's Senate seat.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Aren't Mormons only about 5% of the population in Nevada?

To answer the question, its pathetic turnout and pathetic candidates (rather good Republican candidates too) that have allowed the Nevada GOP to sweep everything in the state except Harry Reid's Senate seat.

They would've swept that in 2010 too, except that we nominated a dreadful candidate.

[President Johnson]

They won't win the Governor's office in 2018.

Sandoval will succeed Harry Reid in the Senate and will therefore resign in late 2016, elevating Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchinson to the state's top job. Hutchinson, if he avoids critical mistakes in 2017-18, he will win reelection with the incument's advantage.

[PAK Man]

They won't win the Governor's office in 2018.

Sandoval will succeed Harry Reid in the Senate and will therefore resign in late 2016, elevating Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchinson to the state's top job. Hutchinson, if he avoids critical mistakes in 2017-18, he will win reelection with the incument's advantage.

Except Brian Sandoval passed on running for Reid's seat.

http://atr.rollcall.com/brian-sandoval-wont-run-nevada-senate/

[Milquetoast]

What's up with the Democrats in Nevada? They haven't held the governor's mansion since the 1990s and they've lost Richard Bryan's Senate seat in 2000, a Democratic year. They've lost control of the legislature and at least one House seat in Congress. The only thing they've managed to accomplish is holding onto one Senate seat despite the fact that Harry Reid is sitting in it and occasionally taking back one or two House seats.

Nevada is a swing state. That means it will elect Republicans and Democrats at different times and to different offices. Look it up! Nevada voted for Obama TWICE.

[Joe Republic]

Aren't Mormons only about 5% of the population in Nevada?

11%.

[The Arizonan]

What's up with the Democrats in Nevada? They haven't held the governor's mansion since the 1990s and they've lost Richard Bryan's Senate seat in 2000, a Democratic year. They've lost control of the legislature and at least one House seat in Congress. The only thing they've managed to accomplish is holding onto one Senate seat despite the fact that Harry Reid is sitting in it and occasionally taking back one or two House seats.

Nevada is a swing state. That means it will elect Republicans and Democrats at different times and to different offices. Look it up! Nevada voted for Obama TWICE.

I think you're missing the point. The Democrats have been having crappy luck lately in Nevada.

Also, Nevada voted for George W. Bush both times.

[ElectionsGuy]

Aren't Mormons only about 5% of the population in Nevada?

11%.

Source? I searched on Google and every answer had it from 4-6%.

[tmthforu94]

Aren't Mormons only about 5% of the population in Nevada?

11%.

Source? I searched on Google and every answer had it from 4-6%.

My guess is that it's their voting share percentage. Mormons historically have turned out in greater numbers.

[Mister Mets]

Aren't Mormons only about 5% of the population in Nevada?

11%.

In addition, Mormons are also more likely to vote than the rest of the population.

[pbrower2a]

What's up with the Democrats in Nevada? They haven't held the governor's mansion since the 1990s and they've lost Richard Bryan's Senate seat in 2000, a Democratic year. They've lost control of the legislature and at least one House seat in Congress. The only thing they've managed to accomplish is holding onto one Senate seat despite the fact that Harry Reid is sitting in it and occasionally taking back one or two House seats.

Nevada is a swing state. That means it will elect Republicans and Democrats at different times and to different offices. Look it up! Nevada voted for Obama TWICE.

I think you're missing the point. The Democrats have been having crappy luck lately in Nevada.

Also, Nevada voted for George W. Bush both times.

Demographic change -- more Hispanics. Note also that Mexican-Americans (the bulk of Nevada Hispanics) were hurt worst by the real-estate meltdown that Dubya sponsored. Mexican-Americans, who had been trending R as they started to join the middle class, reversed that trend in Colorado and Nevada in 2012.