NBC/WSJ: Clinton opens up 60 point lead

[Gallium]

First time they've stopped polling Biden.

Clinton 75%
Sanders 15%
Webb 2%
O'Malley 2%
Chafee <1%

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/hillary-clinton-dominates-2016-democratic-field-leads-gop-rivals-n379836

[Gallium]

[bedstuy]

Fantastic!  75% is a strong number for Clinton.

[IceSpear]

No way! I thought Hillary was collapsing! The Forum told me so! Muh Wisconsin straw poll!

[Mehmentum]

32% could not see themselves supporting Sanders, only 8 points behind the 40% of people who could see themselves supporting him.

8% could not see themselves supporting Clinton.  The lowest for any candidate in either party despite having universal name recognition.

But yeah, Clinton is in trouble, she's 10 points ahead in New Hampshire.

[Hydera]

Oh gosh sanders supporters are going to get the wrong message and think they'll get 40% in the primary....

[IceSpear]

Looks like O'Malley got a reverse announcement bounce.

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like O'Malley got a reverse announcement bounce.

At least he got a few more people to learn who he is.  Is it his fault that 8 out of 9 of those people can't see themselves supporting him? 

[Eraserhead]

Iowa and New Hampshire polls are the only ones really worth paying much attention to right now (to the extent that any polls are really worth paying attention to in June '15).

[retromike22]

but muh Sanderzmentum!

[IceSpear]

Is there a percentage cut off for the Dem debates? If so, Chafee would probably get excluded. Pretty much everyone puts him at 0 or 1. Great news!

[Mr. Morden]

Is there a percentage cut off for the Dem debates?

AFAIK, we don't yet know when the first Democratic debate will be held (beyond "the fall"), what state it will be in, or what network it will be broadcast on.  So no, we really have no clue at this point.

[Ebsy]

Iowa and New Hampshire polls are the only ones really worth paying much attention to right now (to the extent that any polls are really worth paying attention to in June '15).

Eraserhead, please. Bernie has no chance.

[Likely Voter]

Is there a percentage cut off for the Dem debates? If so, Chafee would probably get excluded. Pretty much everyone puts him at 0 or 1. Great news!

If I had to guess, would bet that CNN would get the first debate. And I suspect they would use the same rules for Dems as they have for GOPers (although the cutoff for the top 10 wont be an issue).

Their minimum criteria is an average of 1% in 3 recognized national polls in the two months (or so) prior to the debate. As of now Chafee has 3 polls with 1% since  (Quinni, ABC and FOX), so if the rules are the same he would (barely) qualify.

[Mr. Morden]

Is there a percentage cut off for the Dem debates? If so, Chafee would probably get excluded. Pretty much everyone puts him at 0 or 1. Great news!

If I had to guess, would bet that CNN would get the first debate. And I suspect they would use the same rules for Dems as they have for GOPers (although the cutoff for the top 10 wont be an issue).

Their minimum criteria is an average of 1% in 3 recognized national polls in the two months (or so) prior to the debate. As of now Chafee has 3 polls with 1% since  (Quinni, ABC and FOX), so if the rules are the same he would (barely) qualify.

It's not clear to me that they'll bother with a polling threshold, since the Democratic race will only have 4 or 5 participants.  They can easily just let everyone in to the debate, if they want to.  Chafee seems to be the only candidate attacking Clinton directly on a regular basis, so they might want him in there to create more drama.

However, the "they" in the preceding paragraph is the network.  It's possible that the DNC tries to come up with some additional criteria that they try to force on the network, if they're looking to protect Clinton from the wrath of the Chafe.

[Likely Voter]

well they need some kind of threshold to keep out the kooks. CNN also requires paid staffers and trips to early states but such a thing is easy so anyone with enough cash could essentially buy themselves a spot on the stage. So I suspect there will be a minimum polling thing. Not sure what they did in 2007 but there must have been some threshold then to keep out the kooks, or perhaps it was arbitrary.

That being said, Gravel made it into about half of the debates so their kook filter may have malfunctioned.

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure what they did in 2007 but there must have been some threshold then to keep out the kooks, or perhaps it was arbitrary.

I'm pretty sure it was completely arbitrary.  Mike Gravel wasn't even being included in the polls (and in the few where he was, he was at 0%, or something like that).  No one besides political geeks had any clue who he was, and he had no money or presence in the early states.  But they invited him to the debates because he was a former US Senator.

[Likely Voter]

looking at the wiki page it seems like by September they stopped inviting Gravel based on polling. With so few debates this time and with the DNC involved, I suspect they will have a threshold.

Then again maybe team Hillary (and therefore their minions at the DNC) would want a more the merrier approach.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, a national sample of 200 Democratic voters, with a MoE of 7% !

That's really telling us something about the state of the race ...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, a national sample of 200 Democratic voters, with a MoE of 7% !

That's really telling us something about the state of the race ...

Exactly, Hillary doesn't have a 60 point lead.

[Eraserhead]

Iowa and New Hampshire polls are the only ones really worth paying much attention to right now (to the extent that any polls are really worth paying attention to in June '15).

Eraserhead, please. Bernie has no chance.

Next to no chance? Yeah, I agree. Literally no chance AT ALL? I disagree.

Don't you guys like following competitive elections anyway? Who wants to see Hillary sweep all 50 states. That's boring. Plus it means she'll get to run to the right long before the primary process even ends. No thanks!

[The Other Castro]

With these numbers, Bernie Sanders would be the frontrunner in the Republican Primary.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Wow, a national sample of 200 Democratic voters, with a MoE of 7% !

That's really telling us something about the state of the race ...

Exactly, Hillary doesn't have a 60 point lead.

Yes, closer to 45 points.