Nationally the US popular vote shift from Democrats to Republicans between 2012 and 2016 was only 1.8%.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true But Trump won because of a much larger shift of 5.4% in the 13 swing states. This certainly indicates his campaign was better received in the states where he and Clinton competed head to head, so clearly his message to voters was better.
This also gives some credence to his argument that he might have won the popular vote if he campaigned nationally, since an uniform shift of 5.4% would have given him a popular vote win.
Looking at the 11 states with a >9% shift in popular vote to the GOP from 2012 clearly shows some possible emerging trends.
Four states are in the Mid-west:
Ohio 11.10%
Michigan 9.70%
Missouri 9.20%
Iowa 15.20%
Three states are in New England:
Vermont 9.20%
Rhode Island 11.90%
Maine 12.60%
Looking at the only 3 states with a >5% shift in popular vote to the Democrats clearly shows a trend due to an increasing Latino population.
California 7.20%
Texas 6.80%
Arizona 5.50%
If these trends continue, the GOP may find much of the North outside of IL, NY, and MA much more competitive, while the Southeast trends towards the Democrats, leading to the largest change in the electoral map since Clinton.
