Clinton 2016 campaign: Georgia is a "Tier Two" state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the above R pollster was laying a plausible case if a close election was to be.

But, there hasnt been consecutive elections where duplicate maps have been made. The compiled map which shows this is more wishful thinking.

It will be a close election like 1960, 1976 and 2000 were, third term inc party.

[WVdemocrat]

I think the above R pollster was laying a plausible case if a close election was to be.

But, there hasnt been consecutive elections where duplicate maps have been made. The compiled map which shows this is more wishful thinking.

It will be a close election like 1960, 1976 and 2000 were, third term inc party.

Maybe that would be the case under different circumstances, but polling shows that Hillary is maintaining the Obama 2012 map (with some small differences, but mostly maintaining it).

This is Hillary vs. Jeb (a map of current polling):

Do you notice that there's essentially no change from 2012? Virginia and North Carolina are switched, but otherwise it's the same. Hillary's crushing Jeb in Nevada, she's leading in his home state of Florida.

Nothing indicates this will be a close election. The GOP field is a bunch of clowns and a Bush. TBH, their best candidate would be Romney and even he would ensure a loss. Precedent can be helpful insight, but it can't guide us. 2000 was closer than 1996. 1960 was closer than 1956. 1988 was closer than 1984. 2016 looks to break that tradition.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls are a RV sample, not LV.

When Mason Dixon or Fox polls or Rasmussen polls comes out, with LV, then lets talk.

I still think Clinton will win.

Most of the polls are PPP polls that dont sample LV until late in campaign.

Just like NBC polls used RV screen to get its 8-14 pt lead.

[DS0816]

Please Dems, do dump money onto Georgia. Maybe they can get 46% this time!

Only if Republicans dump money into Pennsylvania. Maybe they can get 47% this time.

If they can move their 57 percent of the white vote, as received by a 2012 Mitt Romney, up to 58 or 59 percent…the Republicans may be able to reach 47 percent of the statewide vote in Pennsylvania. (The whites' share of the state's vote is in decline. They went from 84 percent, in 2004, to 81 percent, in 2008, and down to 78 percent, in 2012.)

Pennsylvania is one of the historically best-performing states—Top 10—with having carried for presidential winners. (Its rate at voting for winners is in the 80s percentile range. And among non-bellwether states, it is only behind Illinois, California, and New York.)

Georgia is one of the historically worst-performing states—Bottom 10—with having carried for presidential winners. (Its rate at voting for winners is in the 50s percentile range. Overall average, between the 57 United States presidential elections, from 1789 to 2012, is in between 69 and 70 percent.)

Whites are the reason Republicans were able to hold Georgia in 2008. And Mitt Romney only moved that state a couple percentage points in 2012—less than his national shift of 3.40 percent. In fact, the next time a Democrat wins the presidency, and does so in the high single digits, it's more feasible that a winning Democrat will carry Georgia before a winning Republican could get to a 3-point margin, nationwide, and win over Pennsylvania. (They haven't been there once since after the 1980s.)

This burns a hell of a lot of the Republican forum members at this site—including ElectionsGuy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'll tell you one thing, if there is anything similar to a 2008 or 2012 map, then there are alot of swing state GOP in House and Senate that will lose. Because in 2012, they barley hung onto House.

I say over under Clinton 257-303 electors.

But I think Jeb will win NC.

[DS0816]

Here is the deal:

So long as Jeb Bush is the GOP nominee, Hillary Clinton's path to 272 becomes a lot harder because he will win Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa would be up for grabs.

With Marco Rubio, it's the same thing.

With Scott Walker, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico come back into her column. Virginia and Colorado are leaning her way, though up for grabs. North Carolina is 50/50, then Ohio and Iowa lean Walker.

Rand Paul would give her a run for her money in Colorado and New Hampshire, but she might even be able to win a state like Georgia or Missouri.

Without Bush, Walker, or Rubio, Georgia leans Republican, but it's still up for grabs. Same thing with North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana.

Translation: You believe the people of the United States want a third Bush for president of the United States.

[Nyvin]

Here is the deal:

So long as Jeb Bush is the GOP nominee, Hillary Clinton's path to 272 becomes a lot harder because he will win Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina. Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Iowa would be up for grabs.

With Marco Rubio, it's the same thing.

With Scott Walker, Florida, Nevada, and New Mexico come back into her column. Virginia and Colorado are leaning her way, though up for grabs. North Carolina is 50/50, then Ohio and Iowa lean Walker.

Rand Paul would give her a run for her money in Colorado and New Hampshire, but she might even be able to win a state like Georgia or Missouri.

Without Bush, Walker, or Rubio, Georgia leans Republican, but it's still up for grabs. Same thing with North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana.

Why 272 as opposed to 270 first of all?

Next there is nothing at all suggesting Jeb will do particularly well in Nevada, and Florida is almost guaranteed to be very very close.    New Mexico will not be competitive regardless of the GOP candidate either.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Please Dems, do dump money onto Georgia. Maybe they can get 46% this time!

Exactly correct

[jamestroll]

Okay, bumping old threads is getting old.

But I absolutely guarantee that in the next Democratic victory, unless it is very narrow, Democrats will pick up Georgia.

There was barely any investment there in 2016. The state literally has a sign on it saying to Democrats, "Invest in me, You can win me!"

[Mike67]

Georgia is Metro Atlanta and then everyone else. It's getting to be a liberal Metro Atlanta while the rest of the state is Conservative.

[krazen1211]

Georgia is Metro Atlanta and then everyone else. It's getting to be a liberal Metro Atlanta while the rest of the state is Conservative.

The margin in Georgia was the same as Virginia. Close indeed.

[Vosem]

Georgia is Metro Atlanta and then everyone else. It's getting to be a liberal Metro Atlanta while the rest of the state is Conservative.

This is true, but liberal Metro Atlanta is growing really fast while the rest of the state isn't. Gwinnett County demonstrates this in a stark fashion:

2004 (244,343 votes): Bush 66%, Kerry 33%, Badnarik 1%
2016 (330,950 votes): Clinton 50%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4%, Unregistered write-ins* 1%, McMullin 1%

*In places where they have been counted, most write-in votes for unregistered write-in candidates were for Bernie Sanders.

If this continues, Georgia will become competitive quite soon indeed. Though it isn't quite there yet.

[Mike67]

Georgia is Metro Atlanta and then everyone else. It's getting to be a liberal Metro Atlanta while the rest of the state is Conservative.

This is true, but liberal Metro Atlanta is growing really fast while the rest of the state isn't. Gwinnett County demonstrates this in a stark fashion:

2004 (244,343 votes): Bush 66%, Kerry 33%, Badnarik 1%
2016 (330,950 votes): Clinton 50%, Trump 44%, Johnson 4%, Unregistered write-ins* 1%, McMullin 1%

*In places where they have been counted, most write-in votes for unregistered write-in candidates were for Bernie Sanders.

If this continues, Georgia will become competitive quite soon indeed. Though it isn't quite there yet.

Yeah it probably will be a true battleground state in the 2024 Presidential Election