Opinion of Nate Silver
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  Opinion of Nate Silver
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Question: ?
#1
FF
 
#2
HP
 
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Total Voters: 71

Author Topic: Opinion of Nate Silver  (Read 3682 times)
Free Bird
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« on: June 24, 2015, 12:24:09 AM »
« edited: June 24, 2015, 12:27:14 AM by Free Bird »

Leans FF, but he still makes weird assumptions because of his weird numbers-only methodology, like Alaska becoming a swing state because the Democrats had a generally good year in 2012 yet still lost the state horribly. His analyses, while soulless and coming across as being done as an essay by a high schooler that doesn't actually care about the subject matter, are still worth paying attention to, even if he missed quite a few marks last year.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2015, 12:27:31 AM »

538 has suffered a definite dive in quality since leaving the NYT for ESPN.
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Thunderbird is the word
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2015, 01:41:13 AM »

FF, he gave the commencement address at my college graduation. Seems like a good guy.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2015, 01:48:16 AM »

Talentless fraud.
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WVdemocrat
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« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2015, 02:28:29 PM »

Leans FF, but he still makes weird assumptions because of his weird numbers-only methodology, like Alaska becoming a swing state because the Democrats had a generally good year in 2012 yet still lost the state horribly. His analyses, while soulless and coming across as being done as an essay by a high schooler that doesn't actually care about the subject matter, are still worth paying attention to, even if he missed quite a few marks last year.

I agree with this completely. Leans FF for me, but sometimes his predictions don't take into account logic (like the logic of Alaska becoming a swing state).
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2015, 02:31:09 PM »

I remember everyone loving him here in 2012.

Apparently its only cool to like electoral statisticians when they like your own party's chances.  Roll Eyes
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2015, 02:43:25 PM »


Your Nate hate has clearly been quarantined. Tongue
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Hydera
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2015, 03:21:49 PM »

One hit wonder.

Was right in the 2012 election but flopped in 2014 when he predicted a tossup in many races and flopped in the 2015 UK election when labour did worse than expected.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2015, 03:34:18 PM »

A shining example of what happens when you treat politics like a math formula.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2015, 03:47:50 PM »

A shining example of what happens when you treat politics like a math formula.

Like I said, comes across as soulless and like it was written by a high schooler that doesn't care.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2015, 04:58:37 PM »

Sometimes you read his analysis and it seems really smart, other times you read his work and opinions and can't help but think "God what a schmuck"
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2015, 05:04:58 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2015, 05:08:59 PM by OC »

I like him better than the state by state analysis of Cook, Rothenberg and Sabato, which push states to tossups or lean status far too late in game.

I remember, all three of them having DeWine favored over Brown, far too long in 2006. But, McCaskill a tossup over Talent.

He was right about Colo being close and wrong about AK in 2014, Silver. Which were the tippers of election, along with La or NC.

But, pundits will be pundits
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King
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« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2015, 05:06:09 PM »

There's a 5.8% chance of him being a FF and 94.2% chance of him being HP. Now, I am not calling him a HP. You cannot attack me for this because this is NOT an opinion nor is it a prediction.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2015, 05:31:51 PM »

Nate is a true FF. Do you remember in 2012 when all the bloviating Washington pundits were saying the race was too close to call ? Or that it was a complete toss up ?

They were flat out wrong, sure the election in the swing states was close, but Obama ended up winning  all of the swing states minus NC, as Nate predicted. Nate had Obama's chance at over 80 % most of the election cycle. After Obama had that bad first debate, the belt way media screamed about the Romney surge and how he could win the race. Even after that debate, Nate still had Obama at around a 73 % chance of winning.

Also Nate completely nailed 2008 with his demographic analysis of the electorate. The whole Starbucks v Walmart comparison was a fascinating one. You could probably nail the 2008 election using that map.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2015, 05:48:40 PM »

Nate is a true FF. Do you remember in 2012 when all the bloviating Washington pundits were saying the race was too close to call ? Or that it was a complete toss up ?

They were flat out wrong, sure the election in the swing states was close, but Obama ended up winning  all of the swing states minus NC, as Nate predicted. Nate had Obama's chance at over 80 % most of the election cycle. After Obama had that bad first debate, the belt way media screamed about the Romney surge and how he could win the race. Even after that debate, Nate still had Obama at around a 73 % chance of winning.

Also Nate completely nailed 2008 with his demographic analysis of the electorate. The whole Starbucks v Walmart comparison was a fascinating one. You could probably nail the 2008 election using that map.

While it's true that he's done well in presidential election years, his performance was weaker in 2010 on some levels, and in 2014 he was decidedly average. Plus, he's proved terrible in predicting anything that isn't politics. He's hardly the "god" of predicting that some people think he is. Plus his whole "I can never be wrong because I only give probabilities!" shtick just comes off as rude and elitist.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2015, 06:50:27 PM »

State tossup or lean categories are subject to change just like AK and Co of 2014, OH, Pa and FL senate of 2016 and 2006 MO and OH senate map.

Silver attempts to use a formula on how each party will fair each election cycle. Which try to avoid this.

I think all of them do a decent job.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2015, 10:02:50 PM »

PECOTA is cool. I used to know Bill Pecota's brother-in-law.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2015, 10:03:31 PM »

FF in comparison to most election commentators. Good enough.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2015, 09:05:55 AM »

I like him. He does try to honestly discuss the complications of polling, and the unknowns. He's also preferrable to the alternative of the "every day is a gamechanger" form of election coverage.
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emailking
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« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2015, 09:23:58 AM »

Plus his whole "I can never be wrong because I only give probabilities!" shtick just comes off as rude and elitist.

I've never heard him say anything like that. And even if he has said that, it's entirely correct. If you find it rude and elitist, well that's an issue that lies with you, not him.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #20 on: June 25, 2015, 10:11:08 AM »

Silver has always admitted it when he was wrong. It's just that people don't understand how to properly measure if he was wrong, and he has to remind them that it's a bit more complex than the usual "but you said candidate X would win and he lost!!!!" nonsense.
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #21 on: June 25, 2015, 10:31:38 AM »

Silver has always admitted it when he was wrong. It's just that people don't understand how to properly measure if he was wrong, and he has to remind them that it's a bit more complex than the usual "but you said candidate X would win and he lost!!!!" nonsense.

The silliest criticism of him is the people who are all "But he predicted Brazil would win the World Cup, ahahahahahahahahahahaha!" like that has anything to do with his political analysis.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2015, 10:38:48 AM »

He's the best together with Nate Cohn of New York Times.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #23 on: June 25, 2015, 02:28:08 PM »

He's obviously smart and good at what he does, but his personal bias (and what he wants out of politics: a rural, dumb, poor GOP vs. a cosmopolitan, educated Democratic Party ... which we all know is painfully simplistic) drips from his writing.  Unfortunately, he's smart enough to "back it up" and not be obvious, but it's annoying.
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« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2015, 05:53:20 PM »

He's good, but there are a lot of other good sites (Upshot, etc.) out there nowadays too. That's not to take anything away from 538, which I enjoy reading, of course, just a fair assessment that he's not unique.
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