What's the probability that the GOP pres. nominee is not Bush, Rubio, or Walker?

[Mr. Morden]

?

[Matty]

Around 13%

[Leinad]

It's hard to tell this far out. If Ted Cruz can unite the conservatarian crowd that will prefer Rand and the social conservative crowd that will prefer Huckabee, I think his name has to be there, despite how much the left and his own party's establishment loath him. He has appeal to the entire conservative base.

Jeb Bush has two big problems: his name (nobody wants a Bush trilogy), and the fact he's way down the list of appeal to any brand of conservative, who collectively make up a huge portion of the voter base. But he has money, so he's a contender if only because of that. If he fails in the debate/vetting cycle (the next half of this year, leading up to the Iowa caucus), then the establishment will fall to another guy. Probably Christie or, if he gets a chance to up his name recognition and does so, Kasich. Both of them will also struggle to get any brand of conservative, but they aren't a member of the Bush Dynasty, which will help.

So, I'd put Cruz as a possible dark horse if he can unite the entire conservative spectrum, and Christie and Kasich as possible dark horses in the case of a Jeb-tastrophe (if he pulls a Bachmann, a Perry, or, worse, a Cain).

[eric82oslo]

I'd consider the probabilities of each candidates right now to be something like this (the lowest percentage being their normal potential and the highest being their best case scenario):

Jeb Bush: 55-60%
Marco Rubio: 10-20%
Rand Paul: 10-20%
Donald Trump: 5-10%
Mike Huckabee: 3-5%
Scott Walker: 3-5%
John Kasich: 3-5%
Bobby Jindal: 1-3%
Lindsey Graham: 1-2%
Rick Perry: About 1%
Ben Carson: About 1%
Carly Fiorina: About 1%
Ted Cruz: 1% or less
George Pataki: Probably less than 1%
Peter King: Less than 1%
Rick Santorum: Less than 1%
Everyone else: Less than 1%

Chris Christie: Have a feeling he won't run, but if he does, I would say between 5-25% because of his unique personality (which might overcome his myriad of closeted skeletons)

Mitt Romney: If he runs as a last minute option, I would say his chances would probably be between 20-40%


So to answer you initial question Mr. Morden: Probably a 68-70% chance right now among those three, but potentially higher.

[eric82oslo]

So, I'd put Cruz as a possible dark horse if he can unite the entire conservative spectrum, and Christie and Kasich as possible dark horses in the case of a Jeb-tastrophe (if he pulls a Bachmann, a Perry, or, worse, a Cain).

Bachmann, Perry and Cain are all complete idiots. Jeb on the other hand is a very smart guy. Don't understand at all how you can compare them.

[Publius]

Jeb Bush: 55-60%
Marco Rubio: 10-20%
Rand Paul: 10-20%
Donald Trump: 5-10%
Mike Huckabee: 3-5%
Scott Walker: 3-5%
John Kasich: 3-5%
Bobby Jindal: 1-3%
Lindsey Graham: 1-2%
Rick Perry: About 1%
Ben Carson: About 1%
Carly Fiorina: About 1%
Ted Cruz: 1% or less
George Pataki: Probably less than 1%
Peter King: Less than 1%
Rick Santorum: Less than 1%
Everyone else: Less than 1%

Chris Christie: Have a feeling he won't run, but if he does, I would say between 5-25% because of his unique personality (which might overcome his myriad of closeted skeletons)

I love the way you went about that. I mostly agree and want to emphasize Christie's wide range. IF someone were to tell me that one of the three guys that title this thread were not the nominee next summer, I'd say, "Then it must be Christie."

My disagreements:
Walker higher: 10-25%
Trump, Huckabee, Jindal, and Graham all down with the "about 1% crowd"
Carson with Kasich at 3-5%

[ElectionsGuy]

Eh, I would say higher than most think, 35% if I had to guess. If Walker doesn't raise the bar during his campaigning compared to what he's done so far than he's out. Bush could be rebuked by the base if immigration is a big issue, and Rubio I think is overrated and blander than seen (though still a frontrunner).

[PresidentTRUMP]

VERY VERY little....it will end up eventually being one of the three, my money tho is on Bush or Rubio over walker.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

VERY VERY little....it will end up eventually being one of the three, my money tho is on Bush or Rubio over walker.

I agree. The chances of it not being any of those three is 5% or less. (And I don't think Walker is a viable national candidate, solely because of how he handles interviews. He's close to Palin-level already.) Perry, Jindal, Pataki, and Christie could theoretically be serious candidates, but are extremely unlikely to gain any traction, mainly due to their own flaws.

Rand is a "kook" and rejected by a good swathe of the establishment. Kasich might have an outside shot... there's the real dark horse. (Idk if his Lehman Bros. experience kills his shot at the nomination or not - it could certainly be used to finish him in the general.)

Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Santorum, and Trump are not serious candidates, any more than Vermin Supreme, even if the media likes to pretend that they are. (If any of them do get them nomination, it will only be a sign of the Republican Party's decay.)


 

[Bull Moose Base]

Walker 3-5%? I'd say 10 x that. The biggest risk for him isn't being a dumbass. It's his approvals going the way of Christie's.

I also think someone other than these 3 is about 10%.

What do people think the odds are if Carson has won Iowa and Trump New Hampshire?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I currently have that event pegged at a 50% chance.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is Walker even running?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is Walker even running?

He's announcing on July 13.

[Mister Mets]

I'd guess about 25 percent.

[dudeabides]

80% chance Bush is the nominee
12% chance Walker is the nominee
6% chance Rubio is the nominee
2% chance another person is the nominee

Huckabee should have run in 2012, he probably would have been nominated then.

[The Other Castro]

Equal to the probability of Rand Paul (7%)+John Kasich (5%)+Collective 1% for the rest of field+Draft Movement candidate at hung convention (2%), so 15% chance.

[Leinad]

So, I'd put Cruz as a possible dark horse if he can unite the entire conservative spectrum, and Christie and Kasich as possible dark horses in the case of a Jeb-tastrophe (if he pulls a Bachmann, a Perry, or, worse, a Cain).

Bachmann, Perry and Cain are all complete idiots. Jeb on the other hand is a very smart guy. Don't understand at all how you can compare them.

No, you misunderstand me. I'm not saying a Jeb-tastrophe is likely. I'm saying in the case that one happens, Christie and Kasich will have a much better chance.

And regarding your percentages, I think you have it wrong. Sadly, Rand probably won't expand beyond his conservatarian base. Walker is well ahead of him, Kasich, and especially Trump. And in no way whatsoever is Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, and I'd say Trump as well ahead of Cruz. Yes, everyone seems to hate him--except conservatives, He has appeal to the entire spectrum, from Tea Partiers to social conservatives. And, like Jeb, he's smarter than Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.

The polls kind of back me up more than you: the Real Clear Politics average looks like this: Bush 12.7%, Walker 11.7%, Rubio 10.7%, Carson 9.7%, Huckabee 8.7%, Paul 8.0%, Cruz 6.5%, Christie 4.5%, Perry 3.5%, Trump 3.2%, everyone else less than 2%. Those polls will probably change a lot by February, but it's a good snapshot of where the race is now.

[eric82oslo]

So, I'd put Cruz as a possible dark horse if he can unite the entire conservative spectrum, and Christie and Kasich as possible dark horses in the case of a Jeb-tastrophe (if he pulls a Bachmann, a Perry, or, worse, a Cain).

Bachmann, Perry and Cain are all complete idiots. Jeb on the other hand is a very smart guy. Don't understand at all how you can compare them.

And regarding your percentages, I think you have it wrong. Sadly, Rand probably won't expand beyond his conservatarian base. Walker is well ahead of him, Kasich, and especially Trump. And in no way whatsoever is Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, and I'd say Trump as well ahead of Cruz. Yes, everyone seems to hate him--except conservatives, He has appeal to the entire spectrum, from Tea Partiers to social conservatives. And, like Jeb, he's smarter than Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.

If Cruz really was so popular, he would be polling more than 4% in national primary polls right now no? After all he has near universal name recognition. Due to his government shutdown, I wouldn't be surprised if he's more well-known than Jeb actually. It just seems like 90% of Republicans really can't stand him much.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

At this time in 1975, Henry Jackson was considered by many to be the leading candidate for the Democratic nomination.  He was a centrist, hawkish in a party shifting towards dovishness, but a party where the anti-war left was being blamed for the 1972 debacle.  He had some name recognition, was the candidate of labor, of most Jews, of many of the big-city bosses (who still mattered somewhat) and the candidate of the Robert Strauss crowd.  Jackson was considered acceptable to Southerners and labor, and his record on foreign policy was acceptably liberal once you got past the issue of Vietnam (which was over at that point).  Jimmy Carter, on the other hand, was at 1/2 of 1 percent in the polls; he was intriguing in that he was a Deep South Governor who was at least SOMETHING of a national Democrat who was seen as a guy who might take some of the air out of the George Wallace balloon.  In the wings was HHH, who had cancer, but the world didn't know of this yet; there was a whole slew of traditional Democratic constituencies that wished to draft HHH in 1976, labor being the biggest of them all.

Carter won the nomination by shocking the Democratic establishment in Iowa, and convincing enough folks that he had the chops to take on Wallace in the South to win NH with 30% or so of the vote.  After that, Carter convinced Southern blacks to unite behind him and convinced enough Southern white Democrats that he was a Southerner who could carry the South.  By the time Carter got a little momentumn, the establishment didn't know what hit them.

What Carter had going for him was ELECTABILITY.  He got every constituency of the Democratic Party, none of which agreed with him in total, to buy intoo his candidacy because he convinced them of his general election electability.  He truly blindsided lots of liberals who thought he'd do well enough to neutralize Wallace and be a VP candidate.  In the end, he was the guy they were stuck with.  No one really LIKED Carter, but his nomination represented the ultimate in practical politics for the Democrats, who wouldn't have carried the South without Carter, and may not have carried California or Illinois with a  more traditional Democrat.  Carter was NEVER the establishment candidate, but he USED the establishment to buy into his electability pitch.

The 2016 race for the GOP is something like that.  Jeb Bush is kind of the new Scoop Jackson; he's the establishment centrist that the more ideological folks in the party don't like.  On the other hand, all wings of the GOP are hungry for a Presidential win.  Chris Christie was supposed to fill the role of the map-expanding centrist in 2016, but that's all over with now.  But there's a place for someone to play that role.  Right now, it's Rubio; he's kind of the new Jimmy Carter for the GOP, but the guy I think will ultimately emerge is Kasich.  He's got the advantages of a Bush without being a Bush, and he could always pick Rubio as his running mate.  He's a map expander, and at some point, the GOP is going to have to get real with the fact that neither Jeb Bush nor the far-right crowd that are flavors of the month now are going to win a general election against Hillary Clinton.  Kasich is Carter with experience, and he has the most credible electability argument of any Republican. 

[Xing]

Probably 25-30%. Bush, Walker, and Rubio all have their weaknesses, and if those weaknesses are exposed during the debates, another Republican could easily become the front-runner.

[Mr. Morden]

Is Walker even running?

He's announcing on July 13.

Link?

As discussed in the Tea Leaves thread, here's the link: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/307428831.html

[Yelnoc]

I"d say the odds of each of those go something like this:

Bush 50%
Walker 10%
Rubio 5%

So call it a 35% chance. Not bad.

[Bull Moose Base]

I think Kasich's chances took a big blow this morning with the Supreme Court decision.

I"d say the odds of each of those go something like this:

Bush 50%
Walker 10%
Rubio 5%

So call it a 35% chance. Not bad.

Why do people have Walker so low? I don't get it. He's clearly a good fit for Iowa. Among the "big 3", he's the one against immigration reform. Among the 2 governors, he's the one not named Bush. Against the 2 not named Bush, he's the one not in DC.

I think Rubio is overrated but not as low as 5%.

So, I'd put Cruz as a possible dark horse if he can unite the entire conservative spectrum, and Christie and Kasich as possible dark horses in the case of a Jeb-tastrophe (if he pulls a Bachmann, a Perry, or, worse, a Cain).

Bachmann, Perry and Cain are all complete idiots. Jeb on the other hand is a very smart guy. Don't understand at all how you can compare them.

And regarding your percentages, I think you have it wrong. Sadly, Rand probably won't expand beyond his conservatarian base. Walker is well ahead of him, Kasich, and especially Trump. And in no way whatsoever is Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, and I'd say Trump as well ahead of Cruz. Yes, everyone seems to hate him--except conservatives, He has appeal to the entire spectrum, from Tea Partiers to social conservatives. And, like Jeb, he's smarter than Bachmann, Perry, and Cain.

If Cruz really was so popular, he would be polling more than 4% in national primary polls right now no? After all he has near universal name recognition. Due to his government shutdown, I wouldn't be surprised if he's more well-known than Jeb actually. It just seems like 90% of Republicans really can't stand him much.

Republicans don't hate Cruz. Check his favorability polling.

If Walker wipes out, I think Carson, Cruz, Huckabee and Perry all have a chance to win Iowa. And if so, the shape of the race depends on who wins New Hampshire. If it's Paul, the Iowa winner seems in good shape to lead national polls forward while the big donors and party leaders would either make a big push for Florida to boost Bush or Rubio, or even try to draft Romney in. If it's an anti-establishment Iowa winner against say Bush winning NH, Bush will unleash attack ads, but that's no guarantee of a win. It depends on the vulnerabilities of his opponent and their ability to hit back. It's all a total guess but I think it's a bit less than 50/50 that one of those conservative anti-establishment candidates wins Iowa, then maybe about 1 in 4 at that point, that they then convert that into a win.

[ElectionsGuy]

100%. Rand Paul will be our next president.

Dude, I want Rand Paul to be the next president, but you need to stop living in fantasy land.

[Maxwell]

35% chance.