Can Hillary Clinton win?
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  Can Hillary Clinton win?
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Author Topic: Can Hillary Clinton win?  (Read 1467 times)
jman123
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« on: June 24, 2015, 11:45:57 AM »

What would need to happen for this to occur?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2015, 11:51:43 AM »

Reality proceeding as normal.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2015, 11:56:00 AM »

What would need to happen for this to occur?

First, the Republican party needs to fail at nominating a competent and/or nationally viable candidate. Second, the last year and change of the Obama administration needs to not be a complete and utter disaster. Fortunately for Hillary Clinton's presidential aspirations, both of these scenarios presently appear quite likely.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2015, 12:02:30 PM »

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2015, 12:13:13 PM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2015, 12:30:42 PM »

Appealing to Catholics, Latinos and push tolerance towards bi racial and women groups.
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2015, 12:37:53 PM »

There are many things which could happen to make this occur.

1) She runs a good campaign, and has a strong GOTV effort.

2) The Republican party nominates a weak candidate.

3) Obama's popularity goes up.

4) Some other event happens which results in a good atmosphere for Democrats.

The list goes on...
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2015, 12:55:08 PM »

What would need to happen for this to occur?

Well.....She'd need to get 270+ electoral votes.
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heatmaster
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2015, 01:10:51 PM »

The lessons of history cannot be ignored, in 1960 Eisenhower was reasonably popular, Nixon was seen as the favorite going into the campaign against a less well known Kennedy, in 2000 Clinton was reasonably popular, despite the impeachment drama & Monica Lewinsky, Gore was seen as the favorite, against G.W. Bush, look what happened, Gore's weird behavior in the debates and his willingness to squander a political advantage of having Clinton out on the hustings. Well we know what has happened, can anyone actually believe that Hillary won't be as politically clumsy and tone deaf. The manifestation's of some Hillary's worst characteristics leads me to believe, that despite all those built in advantages, they will be squandered and discarded. That's a view & a hope☺
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2015, 04:38:53 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2015, 04:41:47 PM by OC »

The Latino vote in electoral states of NM, CO and NV, and reliably Dem states of IA, WI and Pa can give her the electoral strength to overcome the third term 1 party rule jinx. Just like Herbert Walker Bush did.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2015, 04:50:05 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2015, 04:51:38 PM by Zyzz »

The lessons of history cannot be ignored, in 1960 Eisenhower was reasonably popular, Nixon was seen as the favorite going into the campaign against a less well known Kennedy, in 2000 Clinton was reasonably popular, despite the impeachment drama & Monica Lewinsky, Gore was seen as the favorite, against G.W. Bush, look what happened, Gore's weird behavior in the debates and his willingness to squander a political advantage of having Clinton out on the hustings. Well we know what has happened, can anyone actually believe that Hillary won't be as politically clumsy and tone deaf. The manifestation's of some Hillary's worst characteristics leads me to believe, that despite all those built in advantages, they will be squandered and discarded. That's a view & a hope☺

Except Gore won the popular vote and had the election stolen.  He was also under the cloud of the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Obama has been a clean and  ethical president.

George H.w Bush won against Mike Dukakis in 1988 after 8 years of Republican rule as well.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2015, 04:58:47 PM »

Yeah and Gore won the heavy latino vote, aside from Cuban americans, cause of Elian Gonzalez.

Had that situation not occured or butterfly ballots or Bob Graham, then Gore should have won.
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2015, 05:01:30 PM »

Both Hillary and the Republican have a 50/50 chance.

This is based on the assumption that the Republicans nominate a credible candidate, not a wing nut like Santorum et al.  
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Leinad
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« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2015, 07:35:19 PM »

Everyone here on this left-of-center site seems to think Hillary is inevitable. I find that arrogant, in that a LOT can change in the 16+ months until the election, and I also find it short-sighted, in that there are a lot of reasons why she won't win.

Reasons why Hill-nevitability in the general election is premature:

1. The Republicans don't have a real frontrunner yet, so obviously they won't be doing that great in the polling against a person. Even Hillary can beat "Republican Candidate." Jeb-nevitability is a myth even in the primaries. If, say, Scott Walker or someone else surprises everyone and is the next Reagan (bare with me here...), able to get the full spectrum of conservatives and moderates behind him, Hillary's chances are slim. Will that happen? Probably not, but there's a chance the Republicans nominate a good one.

2. Since the New Deal ended years of Republican dominance, only two times has a party won at least 3 straight terms: 20 years of Democrats with Roosevelt and his (third) VP, and 12 years of Republicans with Reagan and his VP. Obama may not be that unpopular universally, but he is NOT FDR or Reagan, both of whom are the legends of their parties. As heatmaster said, both Eisenhower and Clinton's parties lost the White House after two terms; is Obama really more popular than those? And unlike Truman being FDR's VP, Bush being Reagan's VP, and Gore being Clinton's VP, Hillary and Obama haven't always been on the best of terms, so she won't get as much of a boost of a popular incumbent (which, again, I don't think Obama is) anyway.

3. Hillary isn't the best of candidates. The scandal with the Clinton Foundation, the email silliness, Benghazi, her lack of charisma, and whatever else the right-wingers, libertarians (hi!), and disenchanted left-wingers can dig up on her. Both her husband and Obama were better candidates.

Honestly, I'm unsure why so many people think that she's inevitable to win the presidency. Although considering most of the people saying it are left-of-center, I guess I should just write it off to bias.

Besides, Gary Johnson is going to win, clearly.
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Leinad
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« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2015, 07:50:03 PM »

George H.w Bush won against Mike Dukakis in 1988 after 8 years of Republican rule as well.

As I said in my ramble-y post above, Obama is not to the Democrats what Reagan is to the Republicans. Reagan is the legend of the Republicans. Same position FDR has for the Democrats--if not higher, considering many voters (at least in their base) remember him. Don't believe me? Watch how much his name is invoked along the campaign trail this year.

Bill Clinton also isn't Reagan or FDR, but even after Monica Lewinsky and such, he was more popular than Obama. He had a 66% approval rating according to Gallup when he left office, higher than Reagan and much higher than Obama.

Looking at it from over a year out--over half a year until the primaries start, heck the debates haven't even started yet, I don't think you can say either party has that big of an advantage.
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2015, 08:37:56 PM »

Yes. I won't stoop to the level of some of the Clinton supporter's who say that Sanders can't win.

Will she win? Who knows.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2015, 09:26:39 PM »

The lessons of history cannot be ignored, in 1960 Eisenhower was reasonably popular, Nixon was seen as the favorite going into the campaign against a less well known Kennedy, in 2000 Clinton was reasonably popular, despite the impeachment drama & Monica Lewinsky, Gore was seen as the favorite, against G.W. Bush, look what happened, Gore's weird behavior in the debates and his willingness to squander a political advantage of having Clinton out on the hustings. Well we know what has happened, can anyone actually believe that Hillary won't be as politically clumsy and tone deaf. The manifestation's of some Hillary's worst characteristics leads me to believe, that despite all those built in advantages, they will be squandered and discarded. That's a view & a hope☺

this is total fiction.  Gore was a MASSIVE GE underdog to GW Bush a year before the election.  anyone would have taken the under on his eventual showing of 48.38% (!).

Gore's Labor Day to Election Day campaign was also incredibly well-run, as was his election-day ("GOTV") effort.

Gore outperformed his odds from a year out more than any candidate since Reagan 1980.
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