Protests in Armenia

[ag]

Big anti-government protests have been going on for the last few days in Yerevan - and are now spreading. The initial cause was the announced increase of electricity rates by 17%. However, it is becoming more a manifistation of general discontent with the government.

The worst thing, potentially, is, that this has started getting a very certain type of coverage in Russia. The initial protests had little to do with Russia, and there is no Russian minority to speak of in the country (though, one should note, the energy monopoly does belong to the Russians). However, given the current Putin paranoia about "revolutions" in the "near abroad", he may well react. The country does have a large Russian military presence (which it has used as a shield against Azerbaijan), so acting would not be hard. Or, alternatively, Russians might choose to switch support to Azerbaijan as punishment - that would mean a bloody mess, of course.

[Simfan34]

Thankfully Armenia does not share a border with Russia. At least for now.

[dead0man]

Thankfully Armenia does not share a border with Russia. At least for now.

It's just Georgia, we've* already shown we don't care about them once.  Would it really surprise anybody if Putin uses Armenian issues as an excuse to invade?

Putin, "they would not let me roll the 58th through Tbilisi, what choice did I have?"



*to be clear to ag, "we" means the west in general, not me and the mouse I keep in my pocket.

[ag]

Thankfully Armenia does not share a border with Russia. At least for now.

It's just Georgia, we've* already shown we don't care about them once.  Would it really surprise anybody if Putin uses Armenian issues as an excuse to invade?

Putin, "they would not let me roll the 58th through Tbilisi, what choice did I have?"



*to be clear to ag, "we" means the west in general, not me and the mouse I keep in my pocket.

All the necessary troops are already in Armenia. There are huge Russian bases there.

[dead0man]

It's Putin, it doesn't have to make sense.  The Russian people will eat up whatever spin comes out of the state's media, the west will wring it's hands and maybe go for some more sanctions.

I'm not saying all this is going to happen, odds would be against it I would imagine, but it's certainly more likely than, say, Dubya Obama invading Iran Syria so he has an excuse to stay in office longer.



(on the other hand, I seem to recall we've beefed up Georgia a bit since 8/8/08.  Likely not enough, but perhaps enough to give Putin pause.)

[Simfan34]

Thankfully Armenia does not share a border with Russia. At least for now.

It's just Georgia, we've* already shown we don't care about them once.  Would it really surprise anybody if Putin uses Armenian issues as an excuse to invade?

Putin, "they would not let me roll the 58th through Tbilisi, what choice did I have?"

*to be clear to ag, "we" means the west in general, not me and the mouse I keep in my pocket.

All the necessary troops are already in Armenia. There are huge Russian bases there.

Well, bollocks. So the Armenians will have to watch out for the "polite people".